General Election 2015: Voting intentions & general discussion

[Osem]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Very true but it needs to be pointed out when they make policy statements that are obviously hypocritical in the extreme.

Hypocrisy runs through Labour like 'Blackpool' through a stick of seaside rock.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Osem

Hypocrisy runs through Labour like 'Blackpool' through a stick of seaside rock.

huh all the rock around here says cleethorpes

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Osem

Hypocrisy runs through Labour like 'Blackpool' through a stick of seaside rock.

It runs through politicians of both flavours like a stick of seaside rock. The 'do as I say, not as I do' attitude is prevalent and clear on both sides of the spectrum.

Neither of the two larger parties live up to their names now.

[denphone]

Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will lose in general election, new Lord Ashcroft poll shows.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...oll-shows.html

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So do the Labour Council in Glasgow - they employ nearly 1800 people on them.....

http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/l...447n.123964696

But, but, but, those contracts aren't exploitative so they're fine.

---------- Post added at 18:06 ---------- Previous post was at 18:01 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will lose in general election, new Lord Ashcroft poll shows.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...oll-shows.html

Polls are amusing but I'm finding them less and less reliable.

Certainly those two I wouldn't trust polls on unless the findings were completely unequivocal. Too many factors in play.

EDIT: I did get a kick out of noting that UKIP were claiming that the over-65s aren't their target audience. UKIP remind me more of Fox 'News' by the day.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Osem

Yeah but, yeah but, yeah but...

At least the 'nasty party' don't pretend to condemn them whilst a) using them and b) having done nothing whatsoever about them during a 13 year spell in government. That'd be hypocritical wouldn't it...

Makes you wonder which is the truly 'nasty' party.

Originally Posted by denphone

Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage will lose in general election, new Lord Ashcroft poll shows.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gene...oll-shows.html

No way Farage isn't going to win his seat. I have been reading about his campaigning in the consistency and he is spending day-after-day going around meeting people.

I'm a bit suspicious of Ashcroft polls. During the referendum his sample sizes were rather small for the claims being made from the results. Last I saw, Tory/UKIP was too close, within the margin of error.

Likewise these far-flung claims of the SNP taking every seat in Scotland (not Ashcroft this time, I forget who). The whole thing is predicated on a uniform swing that you have to be wilfully stupid to believe would actually happen. The SNP will get 50+ in Glasgow and the west, as they did in the refendum, and around 45 in lots of other places, which is typically enough to win a Westminster seat. But they won't get it everywhere, and in places like Gordon, where Salmond is standing, there is quite a will amongst unionist voters to do whatever it takes to keep the Nats out.

Nate Silver's analysis suggests the Tories might actually come away from this with two Scottish seats, taking one in the borders off the Lib Dums.

[Arthurgray50@blu]

Someone has mentioned zero hour contracts, for special events etc. When l was unemployed the Job Centre, used this type of contract with me.

I was told to be at Twickenham Stadium to work for a Special Events company - and there was no guarantee of a job.

There were two hundred turned up and was told we would not get paid for three weeks. And this would be paid depending on how many hours we work on the promise of more work l fell for it.

My benefit was stopped for three weeks. Until l could PROVE how much work l did.

I did twelve hours at Twickenham, and 12 hours at Chelsea as a steward. I got £20 quid for each one. The JC deducted £15 each and l got the rest - £5 My benefit was deducted by £5 so l ended up with NOTHING.

So Zero Hour contracts, you can shove it

You got £20 for 12 hours work?

What year was this?

The Sun (well Murdoch) seems rather intent on stirring as much trouble for the Union as possible:



---------- Post added at 22:12 ---------- Previous post was at 22:03 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Likewise these far-flung claims of the SNP taking every seat in Scotland (not Ashcroft this time, I forget who). The whole thing is predicated on a uniform swing that you have to be wilfully stupid to believe would actually happen. The SNP will get 50+ in Glasgow and the west, as they did in the refendum, and around 45 in lots of other places, which is typically enough to win a Westminster seat. But they won't get it everywhere, and in places like Gordon, where Salmond is standing, there is quite a will amongst unionist voters to do whatever it takes to keep the Nats out.

The nationwide polls are showing roughly the same swing. I think everyone knows it is wrong to assume the swing is the same across the nation but this is where Ashcroft's polls are interesting too. He is showing the same swing in the individual seats.

Also once you're breaking 50% then any talk of swing is rather redundant. There are just too many votes out there for the SNP to assume they are simply running up the score in their heartlands.

Nate Silver's analysis suggests the Tories might actually come away from this with two Scottish seats, taking one in the borders off the Lib Dums.

Silver is talking about analysis other people are doing for him. This website's election prediction is being run by, as yet untested, academics from the UK.

---------- Post added at 22:37 ---------- Previous post was at 22:12 ----------

The Times reporting that the Liberal Democrats won't accept any Tory deal this time. If true then the chances of a Tory government have been cut again.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Damien

The Times reporting that the Liberal Democrats won't accept any Tory deal this time. If true then the chances of a Tory government have been cut again.

Garbage, the LibDems are running on the ticket that they will enter into a government with whatever party has the most seats. Be that Tory or Labour.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Garbage, the LibDems are running on the ticket that they will enter into a government with whatever party has the most seats. Be that Tory or Labour.

That's what the leadership is saying but the nature of their party means any deal needs to be approved by the party. If there is significant resistance to a Tory deal, not unthinkable when they'll see half their seats gone after the last 5 years, then it may not happen. Especially so if Clegg loses his seat. Remember that we could be in a situation where the LibDems can partner with either side.

With one week to go, we have a new thread with a new poll: http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/20...-one-week.html

Please continue discussion in the new thread.