Brexit discussion

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I disagree. All the forecasts on what would follow from the Brexit vote to date have been wrong and I have no reason to believe that the current forecasts are correct either. Forecasts about the economy have left a lot to be desired as well.

I do not rationalise things the way you suggest, not by a long chalk. My view is a considered one and I will change it if circumstances start to indicate that I may have misjudged something.

I simply cannot agree that the EU is the be all and end all of everything that some make it out to be. Trade with the EU will not be markedly different after Brexit, and we will have new trade to add to it. Plus we will no longer be forking out vast sums of money for membership of the EU.

Of course, if the Government make a balls up of the negotiations I would have to reassess, but there is no sign of that happening at present, although those with their heads in the mud cannot see any way those negotiations will ever give us what we want. They will be surprised, I believe.

Jon has shown you how accurate the forecasts have actually been so I won’t duplicate his good efforts here in pointing out your confirmation bias.

How much does the economy need to suffer by for you to change your mind? Or is anything acceptable if it means we get to leave the EU. Do we actually have to suffer the loss first or will you accept the British Government’s analysis?

No one on here has said the EU is the be all and end all. People like me have said it’s imperfect but it’s the largest market in the world, it’s on our doorstep and it provides access to the largest number of free trade agreements across the globe. We’ve also pointed out that non-tariff barriers are more important than tariff barriers when it comes to trade with the EU and that services are a key export which are unlikely to be covered by a free trade deal. Both of these factors would penalise the UK even in the case of a free trade deal.

The EU negotiations haven’t been going staggeringly well by any account including the Government's. Indeed, the Foreign Secretary recently called for them to be outsourced to Donald Trump!

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

5

Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��

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You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.

Are you not just ignoring these forecasts from a wide range of sources just because they disagree with your vision of the future and for no other reason than that?

The future has not happened yet, we have not left the EU so how can you dismiss projections on what is yet to come?

Let's be honest here, you just do not like what they are saying so you rationalise them, as many do, as lies. The sad and depressing part is when this charade does play out and the UK is poorer off as a result of Brexit, there will be those who say that "I did not vote to be poorer". You may not be one of them but for many, their personal prosperity is important.

I know. "It will be fine, just have Faith" but the good ship Brexit has hit the iceberg. The lookouts did shout out "Iceberg Ahead!" but those in charge, on the bridge as it were, chose not to listen.

We've hit the iceberg but the ship seems fine. The lights are still on, the message from the bridge is that all is well and the band is playing on, where's the problem? After all, the ship is unsinkable .. I was told this when I boarded so it will be fine, honest. Don't believe the doomsayers, what do they know?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Are you not just ignoring these forecasts from a wide range of sources just because they disagree with your vision of the future and for no other reason than that?

The future has not happened yet, we have not left the EU so how can you dismiss projections on what is yet to come?

As you say, how can such analysis be dismissed when we're still in the EU?

The consensus of forecasts from forecasters who have got things right time after time is that the UK will be worse off outside the EU, in all scenarios.

However, that truth is far too inconvenient for those who prefer the comforting steer of the establishment organs the Daily Express, Daily Mail and The Sun instead of looking at the data and working out what it means.

[Gavin78]

I can see the whole Brexit tower come toppling down next year and not happen

[Carth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The consensus of forecasts from forecasters who have got things right time after time is that the UK will be worse off outside the EU, in all scenarios.

Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/

Lol, I'm talking about those economic forecasters who have been consistently accurate, not some political forecaster who hasn't.

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Originally Posted by Gavin78

I can see the whole Brexit tower come toppling down next year and not happen

Can you expand a bit more on this? Why do you think this?

Originally Posted by Carth

Forecasts of the Brexit vote were spot on . . . oh hang on

Our estimated probability of a Leave win is 13% and so Remain have an 87% chance of winning.

taken from here (March 2016) https://electionsetc.com/2016/03/14/...it-referendum/

The thing about probability is sometimes the less likely scenario is what happens.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Damien

The thing about probability is sometimes the less likely scenario is what happens.

Which can lead to over 16 million people sulking and chucking their dummies out of the pram , but their all over that now aren't they ?

[Sephiroth]

What some people seem to be forgetting is that they are referring to “parliamentary democracy” AFTER we have left the EU. The Remainers are currently abusing parliamentary democracy by trying to stymie the real piece of democracy - the Referendum.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

What some people seem to be forgetting is that they are referring to “parliamentary democracy” AFTER we have left the EU. The Remainers are currently abusing parliamentary democracy by trying to stymie the real piece of democracy - the Referendum.

Let me ask you this: if Parliament, the sovereign entity so much part of the Leave campaign, decides that the deal brought back from Brussels by the Executive, is not in the best interests of the country does it have the right to intervene?

[Carth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Let me ask you this: if Parliament, the sovereign entity so much part of the Leave campaign, decides that the deal brought back from Brussels by the Executive, is not in the best interests of the country does it have the right to intervene?

Intervene in what way? By saying 'game over we're staying in'?

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

What some people seem to be forgetting is that they are referring to “parliamentary democracy” AFTER we have left the EU. The Remainers are currently abusing parliamentary democracy by trying to stymie the real piece of democracy - the Referendum.

That's not how Parliamentary Democracy works....

The Referendum said we should leave, and we should all accept that - the Parliamentary Democracy bit is that it shouldn't be a deal that beggars the country, or splits up the United Kingdom; under Parliamentary Democracy, the Government of the Day answers to the House of Commons - Parliament controls the executive by passing or rejecting its Bills and by forcing Ministers of the Crown to answer for their actions.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Carth

Intervene in what way? By saying 'game over we're staying in'?

Intervene as in how the word is defined:

take part in something so as to prevent or alter a result or course of events.

You elect Parliament to govern the country. You give them your authority to make decisions on your behalf. That is sort of how this stuff works. If you do not allow Parliament to validate and assess any outcome of the process the Referendum started then we do not have what the Leavers were so passionate about i.e. a sovereign Parliament able to decide and enact UK law.

Sort of ironic isn't it?

[jonbxx]

There is something to be said for the Swiss 'direct democracy' way of doing things. Referenda can be called by the people if there's enough support to block new laws and/or change the constitution.

Four referenda a year must be exhausting though!

[Gavin78]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Lol, I'm talking about those economic forecasters who have been consistently accurate, not some political forecaster who hasn't.

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Can you expand a bit more on this? Why do you think this?

Don't the Gov get the last say on Brexit considering all the in fighting at the moment and facing the fact the EU is messing us about at the min we arent that long away now from actually leaving and don't appear to have got much from all the talks so far. unless there is a lot we don't know about yet that hasn't been given out to the general public