Brexit discussion

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Carth

The trouble is Andrew, that it's all guesswork and projections based on 'what if' scenarios. I doubt anyone is 'disrespecting' the work they do, but they've been wrong a few times in the past, which doesn't help the 'man in the streets' perception of their value.

It's like using statistics to prove something, looks good on paper but doesn't reflect real life. . . .

Quite right, Carth. All these negative forecasts have assumptions built in that may be right, but in my opinion are likely to be wrong. One of the assumptions made by the OBR, for example, is that if that money stops being sent to Brussels it will be spent elsewhere by the government, which means that it makes almost no difference when forecasting future borrowing. That's a pretty big assumption to make, isn't it? Nobody apart from the Government knows what the precise plans are for spending money, so you can take such forecasts with a pinch of salt.

I say again what I have been saying all along - most economic forecasts have been wrong in the past and yet some on this forum think they are gospel!

---------- Post added at 11:13 ---------- Previous post was at 11:09 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You simply don't trust the hard-working British people Old Boy. You choose to disrespect the hard work of our civil servants and consultancies when they analyse how the economy will perform post-Brexit.

I don't disrespect the work the civil servants do. I just happen to think they are wrong on this particular subject.

You seem to be in awe of them, for some reason.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Carth

The trouble is Andrew, that it's all guesswork and projections based on 'what if' scenarios. I doubt anyone is 'disrespecting' the work they do, but they've been wrong a few times in the past, which doesn't help the 'man in the streets' perception of their value.

It's like using statistics to prove something, looks good on paper but doesn't reflect real life. . . .

I think guesswork is a little strong. There are certainly projections based on 'what if' scenarios but no matter how rigorous your model, economics is a somewhat chaotic system, hence the error bars that are shown in the studies that never reach the headline figures. This is the same as projections of climate change and weather.

What is important however, is the general trend of the studies. All studies except the Economists for Brexits study predict a lower performance for the UK compared to our local peers. There is no solid figure agreed between the studies on the absolute effect of Brexit as each model is different. However, if they all point in the same direction, it's worth paying some kind of attention to the general trend. Again, this is much like climate change where 90 odd percent of studies agree that there is a predicted upturn in global temperatures but no solid agreement in how much.

A second point to note is that government does pay attention to these studies and drives policy based on these predictions. If these studies are wrong or based on guesswork, should we question to competence of the government?

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Unfortunately, we will be negotiating trade deals from a weakened position, as everyone knows we will need them - even the US has said they will use our position to their advantage.

Rule one of negotiations - don’t let people know you’re desperate for a deal.

But when you start a journey to the Brave New World without a map or compass then not many will bet that you will make it excepting the Faithful of course ..

[Carth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

But when you start a journey to the Brave New World without a map or compass then not many will bet that you will make it excepting the Faithful of course ..

When you've lost all faith and hope in the world you live in, a jump into the unknown is a 'nothing to lose' option for those wanting change

Originally Posted by papa smurf

It's a bit like the weather forecast ,mostly wrong but a good talking point .

Actually, it's mostly right...

The BBC 3 day forecast is around 95% accurate, and the 5 day forecast is around 90% accurate.

Originally Posted by Hugh

Actually, it's mostly right...

The BBC 3 day forecast is around 95% accurate, and the 5 day forecast is around 90% accurate.

You don't believe the weather experts do you? If we don't want to to rain then that's our democratic right. I will wear a t-shirt and the fact it annoys the liberals only means I win.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Actually, it's mostly right...

The BBC 3 day forecast is around 95% accurate, and the 5 day forecast is around 90% accurate.

hows the 5 year forecast doing or the 4 year /3 year ......
what your saying is there is no idea beyond the end of the week .

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

hows the 5 year forecast doing or the 4 year /3 year ......
what your saying is there is no idea beyond the end of the week .

The whole economy is based on trying to accurately predict the future. The City and the Insurance industries use Actuaries whose job is to assess and manage the future risk & uncertainty.

Are you saying these people, who are I am afraid, "experts" should be ignored because the future has not happened yet? If you do, you had better buy another mattress to put your money under

I see no difference between people whose job it is to assess future risk that work in the City and those who work as Civil Servants. If you are saying that because they work in Whitehall they are lying then you had better start ordering those tinfoil hats right away.

---------- Post added at 12:42 ---------- Previous post was at 12:33 ----------

Originally Posted by Mick

People cross the road every day and many many people, make it to the other side, there is no lorry coming, no impending doom, no risk to injury. I call it successful optimism; I plan to cross the road, check for risks, no risks, I then cross, I am now on the other side. Positive outcome & Success.

People cross the road every day

People do but countries don't

and many many people, make it to the other side

Interesting: implying a number fail in crossing the road

there is no lorry coming, no impending doom, no risk to injury

How can you tell? It is so foggy you can only see a few feet in front of you and you certainly cannot see the other side of the road

I call it successful optimism

also known as "crossing fingers and hoping it will be ok"

I plan to cross the road

When there are was definitively no plan, this is impossible

check for risks, no risks

Checking best made with eyes open. Risks are clear and present

I am now on the other side. Positive outcome & Success

and then you wake up ..

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't disrespect the work the civil servants do. I just happen to think they are wrong on this particular subject.
You seem to be in awe of them, for some reason.

Where have I said I'm in awe of them? I just happen to respect the work of hard-working British economists and civil servants.

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I
What is important however, is the general trend of the studies. All studies except the Economists for Brexits study predict a lower performance for the UK compared to our local peers. There is no solid figure agreed between the studies on the absolute effect of Brexit as each model is different. However, if they all point in the same direction, it's worth paying some kind of attention to the general trend. Again, this is much like climate change where 90 odd percent of studies agree that there is a predicted upturn in global temperatures but no solid agreement in how much.

When 99% of considered predictions point to one thing, the odds are that they are right. Or as others have said, time to pop to Robert Dyas and purchase your tin hats if you feel otherwise.

[OLD BOY]

5

Originally Posted by Hugh

Actually, it's mostly right...

The BBC 3 day forecast is around 95% accurate, and the 5 day forecast is around 90% accurate.

Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��

---------- Post added at 13:30 ---------- Previous post was at 13:24 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Where have I said I'm in awe of them? I just happen to respect the work of hard-working British economists and civil servants.

You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.

Your approach is to adopt a view and hold it as matter of faith, even if analysis suggests it is likely to be flawed. Mine is to take a look at all the available evidence and then make a decision based upon that. I take no satisfaction from knowing that yet another independent piece of analysis shows that our economic growth is likely to be less than if we remained in the EU.
As Hugh and others have pointed out before, the forecasts that economists make have a high degree of accuracy and it is wrong and unfair to these hard working professionals to claim otherwise.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Your approach is to adopt a view and hold it as matter of faith, even if analysis suggests it is likely to be flawed. Mine is to take a look at all the available evidence and then make a decision based upon that. I take no satisfaction from knowing that yet another independent piece of analysis shows that our economic growth is likely to be less than if we remained in the EU.
As Hugh and others have pointed out before, the forecasts that economists make have a high degree of accuracy and it is wrong and unfair to these hard working professionals to claim otherwise.

I disagree. All the forecasts on what would follow from the Brexit vote to date have been wrong and I have no reason to believe that the current forecasts are correct either. Forecasts about the economy have left a lot to be desired as well.

I do not rationalise things the way you suggest, not by a long chalk. My view is a considered one and I will change it if circumstances start to indicate that I may have misjudged something.

I simply cannot agree that the EU is the be all and end all of everything that some make it out to be. Trade with the EU will not be markedly different after Brexit, and we will have new trade to add to it. Plus we will no longer be forking out vast sums of money for membership of the EU.

Of course, if the Government make a balls up of the negotiations I would have to reassess, but there is no sign of that happening at present, although those with their heads in the mud cannot see any way those negotiations will ever give us what we want. They will be surprised, I believe.

[jonbxx]

So what do we do going forward if previous forecasts haven't been 100% (though we do have the slowest growth in Europe apart from Russia since the vote) Shall we wing it, hope for the best?

Nice comparison of different forecasts from the Treasury, IMF, OECD, Economist For Brexit and National Insititute for Economic Research here by the way - https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/brexit-...d-they-perform It's a bit dated as it's from August 2017 but interesting to see the spread

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

5

Well, I guess it depends on which forecasts you are comparing. There have been many occasions I have noted where the regional forecast has said the exact opposite of the national forecast for my area. They are both issued by the Met Office!
So provide two different forecasts and compare the reality with whichever one was correct! ��

---------- Post added at 13:30 ---------- Previous post was at 13:24 ----------



You didn't say it, Andrew, but you seem to love quoting them and the economists supporting your arguments as if their forecasts prove your point.

My point is that the forecasts they make a rarely correct. This is largely down to the assumptions made, so if their assumptions are wrong, the projections will be wrong.

And let's not forget that economists and civil servants always tend to take an over-cautious stance.

Funnily enough, that exact point was mentioned in the article I got the previous data from...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zg7vcwx

Weather forecasters attract our disdain when things turn out differently from their predictions. They are the obvious ones to blame when rain ruins a picnic or trip to the beach.

But is that fair?

Everyone's affected by what psychologists call “confirmation bias” – the tendency to notice evidence that supports a pre-existing belief but ignore information which contradicts it. So people tend to think forecasters always get it wrong because they forget the thousands of correct forecasts and remember the incorrect one.

[papa smurf]

"Wherever you go, no matter what the weather, always bring your own sunshine."