Israel v Iran conflict

[downquark1]

I'm am not shifting the goal posts. Iran wins on both population and population density, so you don't have an argument, I just didn't want to insult your intelligence by pointing out that Iran is significantly larger.

You don't need super accurate missiles, you just aim into Tev Aviv.

Iranians are the intellectuals of the Muslim world, they have no shortage of engineers. If they do engage in a long term conflicts (although it looks like they don't want to) they keep rebuilding.

They have already used hypersonic missiles which are considered high tech delivery systems.

---------- Post added at 08:58 ---------- Previous post was at 08:27 ----------

OK I will lay it out:

US doesn't give any support:
Revolution in Iran - Israel wins
Iran unifies into long term war - Iran wins

US commits massive forces:
Russia and China don't support Iran, Iran surrenders/regime change - Israel wins
Russia and China do support Iran - Long term conflict, hard to say (maybe WWIII)

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by downquark1

Either there is revolution in Iran or tel Aviv will get chipped away.

I think that's the plan, bomb them into revolution. Can't see it happening though.

Originally Posted by downquark1

I'm am not shifting the goal posts. Iran wins on both population and population density, so you don't have an argument, I just didn't want to insult your intelligence by pointing out that Iran is significantly larger.

You don't need super accurate missiles, you just aim into Tev Aviv.

Iranians are the intellectuals of the Muslim world, they have no shortage of engineers. If they do engage in a long term conflicts (although it looks like they don't want to) they keep rebuilding.

They have already used hypersonic missiles which are considered high tech delivery systems.

---------- Post added at 08:58 ---------- Previous post was at 08:27 ----------

OK I will lay it out:

US doesn't give any support:
Revolution in Iran - Israel wins
Iran unifies into long term war - Iran wins

US commits massive forces:
Russia and China don't support Iran, Iran surrenders/regime change - Israel wins
Russia and China do support Iran - Long term conflict, hard to say (maybe WWIII)

There’s no path to anything anyone but an Iranian regime Mullah would call ‘victory’ here.

Sure, Israel probably wants regime change. Lack of regime change however is not an Iranian win. Iran has already lost its proxies on Israel’s borders, and it has now lost swathes of war-making capacity on its home territory.

Lack of regime change certainly doesn’t open the way to Tel Aviv getting ‘chipped away’. Iran doesn’t have the capacity to produce enough damaging munitions, rapidly enough, to achieve that, and neither Russia nor China is in a position to help.

[Sephiroth]

One of the things sort of bothering me is there is no condemnation of Iran from Downquark. Especially because of their terrorist proxies - Hamas and Hezbollah.

He seems to be in "just saying" mode by inventing Iranian superiority at the end game.

What I'd really like to know is whether or not Downquark would prefer Iran to be the winning side. I'll be surprised if I get a proper answer.

[downquark1]

There’s no path to anything anyone but an Iranian regime Mullah would call ‘victory’ here.

Now you are moving goal posts. Survival is victory.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

One of the things sort of bothering me is there is no condemnation of Iran from Downquark. Especially because of their terrorist proxies - Hamas and Hezbollah.

He seems to be in "just saying" mode by inventing Iranian superiority at the end game.

What I'd really like to know is whether or not Downquark would prefer Iran to be the winning side. I'll be surprised if I get a proper answer.

Most of my scenarios I suggest involve Israel winning and that is definitely a strong possibility.

In this particular military spat, Israel opened aggression and is risking World war 3. Iran has been funding Hamas and Hesbola etc. which I do utterly condemn and if they do lose it would not be undeserved. But I am still tepid about the whole risking world war III thing.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by downquark1

Now you are moving goal posts. Survival is victory.



Most of my scenarios I suggest involve Israel winning and that is definitely a strong possibility.

In this particular military spat, Israel opened aggression and is risking World war 3. Iran has been funding Hamas and Hesbola etc. which I do utterly condemn and if they do lose it would not be undeserved. But I am still tepid about the whole risking world war III thing.

Thanks - I did receive a proper answer.

About this WWIII thing: The corollary to your tepidity is that Israel, having noted the IAEA report, should not, on balance, have attacked Iran - leaving Israel open to eventual extinction by reason of Iran's eventual nuke. Then what for WWIII?

This was a long time coming and the IAEA report was the trigger. Note that the surrounding Arab countries have not mobilised against Israel nor made any such noises. On the contrary, I believe them to be sort of rooting for Israel.

[downquark1]

The countries allied with the US are rooting for Israel (sort of). The countries allied with BRICs is rooting for Iran (also sort of).

The nuke thing is a red herring. It's just Saddams WMD over again.

Russia and China don't want US influence in Iran as that messes with their geopolitical chess game.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by downquark1

The countries allied with the US are rooting for Israel (sort of). The countries allied with BRICs is rooting for Iran (also sort of).

The nuke thing is a red herring. It's just Saddams WMD over again.

Russia and China don't want US influence in Iran as that messes with their geopolitical chess game.

The "nuke thing" is a matter of record: The IAEA's report.

And yes, imo, to your chess game assertion. Nevertheless, Isreal, acting on the IAEA report, is in self defence mode.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The "nuke thing" is a matter of record: The IAEA's report.

And yes, imo, to your chess game assertion. Nevertheless, Isreal, acting on the IAEA report, is in self defence mode.

Analysis of the IAEA report here.

https://isis-online.org/isis-reports...port-may-2025/

There’s another option. It all plays out online via social media.

Originally Posted by Maggy

There’s another option. It all plays out online via social media.

Deadly

[mrmistoffelees]

Sooooo

The Israeli defence minister states that the Iranian leader can’t be allowed to continue to live because an Iranian missile hits an Israeli hospital. But it’s fine for Israeli missiles to hit hospitals in Gaza and civilian targets in Iran ?

Now the justification for Gaza will be ‘well Hamas historically use hospitals blah blah blah, fine’ but historical doesn’t mean current nor active but didn’t stop them from being bombed senseless killing hundreds of innocent people in the process

I think I also read that Iran was still in negotiations when Israel launched strikes. So to me that reads that Israel doesn’t trust those parties involved in the negotiations? But it’s quite happy to demand their help?

---------- Post added at 15:01 ---------- Previous post was at 14:58 ----------

Israel or more specifically Netanyahu is becoming quite the Harvey Dent

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Sooooo

The Israeli defence minister states that the Iranian leader can’t be allowed to continue to live because an Iranian missile hits an Israeli hospital. But it’s fine for Israeli missiles to hit hospitals in Gaza and civilian targets in Iran ?

Now the justification for Gaza will be ‘well Hamas historically use hospitals blah blah blah, fine’ but historical doesn’t mean current nor active but didn’t stop them from being bombed senseless killing hundreds of innocent people in the process

I think I also read that Iran was still in negotiations when Israel launched strikes. So to me that reads that Israel doesn’t trust those parties involved in the negotiations? But it’s quite happy to demand their help?

---------- Post added at 15:01 ---------- Previous post was at 14:58 ----------

Israel or more specifically Netanyahu is becoming quite the Harvey Dent

Do you believe that Iran is developing a nuke? (note the IAEA report).

Do you believe that an Iranian nuke would be used or threatened against Israel?

Do you deplore Iran's policy for the destruction of the State of Israel?

It's useful to note where people stand on the underlying issues (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) dedicated to Israel's destruction).

[Itshim]

Most of the middle east would be happy to see the end of Israel . If they were pro USA, so would donny ,as long as they are anti USA, Israel will be protected.

Originally Posted by Itshim

Most of the middle east would be happy to see the end of Israel . If they were pro USA, so would donny ,as long as they are anti USA, Israel will be protected.

It’s not 1973 any more

Most of the Middle East wants stable government free of Islamist nut-jobs. They see that Israel as an issue is an actual lightning rod for Islamist nut-jobs. They have to *say* they demand Israel stop attacking Iran, but Israel attacking Iran suits them the same as it does when they attack extremists in Hamas and Hezbollah.