Brexit discussion

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

the rest of the world is ours at the moment, thanks to being in the trading bloc that has the highest number of free trade deals of any trading bloc in the world. We'll lose it all in 2020.
Doubtless, there will be a poor deal with the EU which the Brexiters will drool over but the sane world will be pitying of. How it will all square with no border between the two Irelands I do not know.

Well, if that is the czse, what has just happened in China? Did Theresa May go there for no reason?

Contrary to the view you seem to hold on this, the EU does not have comprehensive trade agreements with the rest of the world, including our biggest trading partner other than the EU, the United States of America!

Nothing will be lost in 2020 other than EU incompetence, EU restrictions and EU myths, which will be exposed for all to see. If the EU is this wonderful institution that allows us to trade with the rest of tbe world, how come we had to leave our Commonwealth countris behind as part of this wonderful project?

[heero_yuy]

Quote from Gavin78:


Leaked EU document shows Brexit 'punishment plan'

https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-eu...-plan-11239487


Theresa May's chief Brexit tormentor, Jacob Rees-Mogg, has stepped up his pressure on the Prime Minister after claims the EU plans to punish the UK during a transition period.

According to an incendiary threat contained in a leaked Brussels document, the EU wants the power to restrict the UK's access to the single market during a transition period and impose big trade tariffs

Why make this so difficult: The vote was to leave, so LEAVE!

[jonbxx]

Do you remember TTIP? The US and US have been working on a trade agreement for a number of years but significant issues remain. Here's an excerpt from the joint US/EU status report;

We still have significant work to do to resolve our differences in several important areas of the
negotiations, inter alia, how to treat the most sensitive tariff lines on both sides; how to expand
and lock in market access in key services sectors; how to reconcile differences on sanitary and
phytosanitary measures; how to encourage the recognition of qualifications to facilitate licensing
of experienced professionals; how to improve access to each other’s government procurement
markets; how to address standards and conformity assessment procedures in ways that yield
greater openness, transparency, and convergence, reduce redundant and burdensome conformity
assessment procedures, and enhance cooperation; how best to achieve our shared objective of
providing strong investor protection while preserving the right of governments to regulate,
including with respect to dispute resolution mechanisms; how to reflect our shared commitment
to including strong and effective disciplines on labour and environmental protection; how to
structure commitments on data flows that will reinforce the essential electronic commerce and
digital infrastructure of our economic relationship while respecting legitimate concerns about
protecting privacy; how best to promote transparent, open, and secure energy markets; and how
to reconcile differences in our approaches to trademarks, generic names, and geographical
indications. On these and other challenging issues, our work over the past three years brought
greater clarity to our differences and enabled us to explore avenues for reconciling them.

As for China, again, there have been talks but the issues with China include;

- a lack of transparency
- industrial policies and non-tariff measures that discriminate against foreign companies
- strong government intervention in the economy, resulting in a dominant position of state-owned firms, unequal access to subsidies and cheap financing
- poor protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights

So yes, there aren't agreements with the US and China, but there are reasons why and the EU is clear why.

Here's the EU page on US trade - http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...united-states/
And trade with China - http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...untries/china/

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Why make this so difficult: The vote was to leave, so LEAVE!

Because the government have to plan alternative arrangements for the regulations, legal mechanisms and other controls. The transition period has come about because of the sheer scale of the task. There is something like 40 of them and also don't want to have a period where businesses can't sell into the EU because of paperwork hassle. It's more than just dealing with the tariffs for now and sorting it later.

[heero_yuy]

Quote from Damien:


Because the government have to plan alternative arrangements for the regulations, legal mechanisms and other controls. The transition period has come about because of the sheer scale of the task. There is something like 40 of them and also don't want to have a period where businesses can't sell into the EU because of paperwork hassle. It's more than just dealing with the tariffs for now and sorting it later.

But a "transition period" where nothing really changes, just kicks the can down the road and when the end of such a period looms we'll get the same old excuses and doom mongering about "cliff edges" and not being ready. A definite chop date in March 2019 would concentrate minds and stop the shilly-shallying.

Yes, there's a lot to be done and people need to get their fingers out, burn the midnight oil if needed, employ more staff and actually DO something.

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

But a "transition period" where nothing really changes, just kicks the can down the road and when the end of such a period looms we'll get the same old excuses and doom mongering about "cliff edges" and not being ready. A definite chop date in March 2019 would concentrate minds and stop the shilly-shallying.

Yes, there's a lot to be done and people need to get their fingers out, burn the midnight oil if needed, employ more staff and actually DO something.

It does kick the can down the road but that's because 2 years isn't long enough. As far as know the civil service is already working longer hours etc but the sheer scale of the task isn't helping. It doesn't help the politicians are dithering into what they want.

Personally I think we should sign up to the EU bodies where there is no real benefit, trade wise, to having our own. I.E Do we really need to leave Euratom which regulates the transport, management and safety of nuclear material? Not really. What's the point of setting up and staffing an agency which on the face of it will do nothing but mirror EU regulation.

Stuff like that will speed it up.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Damien

Personally I think we should sign up to the EU bodies where there is no real benefit, trade wise, to having our own. I.E Do we really need to leave Euratom which regulates the transport, management and safety of nuclear material? Not really. What's the point of setting up and staffing an agency which on the face of it will do nothing but mirror EU regulation.

Stuff like that will speed it up.

I agree 100%. The only issue is that the dispute resolution mechanism for most of these bodies is the ECJ which is politically unpalatable

[Gavin78]

I think the EU is going to stitch us up big time during the transition period they want payback and are aiming to get it. They won't finish on just a divorce settlement they'll screw everything from us for years to come.

I think if we haven't got very far towards the end of the year and threats are still coming our way we should just jump the cliff and laugh at the stupidity of the EU as they run around looking for their next milk float

[jonbxx]

So Theresa May refused to rule out the NHS being a subject of interest in post Brexit UK/US trade talks - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...rade-deal.html (I hope the source is OK with everyone, didn’t want to cite The Guardian or Independent)

Vaguely corrected later by the PMs press office but worrying

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Nothing will be lost in 2020 other than EU incompetence, EU restrictions and EU myths, which will be exposed for all to see. If the EU is this wonderful institution that allows us to trade with the rest of tbe world, how come we had to leave our Commonwealth countris behind as part of this wonderful project?

Apart from lost tax revenues due to slower growth which could be spent on our schools, housing, NHS and armed forces - nothing will be lost.

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

So Theresa May refused to rule out the NHS being a subject of interest in post Brexit UK/US trade talks - http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...rade-deal.html (I hope the source is OK with everyone, didn’t want to cite The Guardian or Independent)

Vaguely corrected later by the PMs press office but worrying

if that happens don't get ill unless you got a credit card with lots of money


Impact on UK regions revealed in Brexit leak as usual North East worse off

https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-no...-leak-11240254

[1andrew1]

Incisive analysis from Robert Peston. Full article worth reading.

But the government in December agreed, in a non-legally-binding text, that if Schrodinger's border can't be created through a technological miracle, there would be a regulatory solution - viz that we would commit through "high level alignment" between our regulations and the EU's that we wouldn't sell shoddy goods and products to the EU.

But turning that statement of intent into a binding promise brings huge risks for Theresa May - because it would be seen as enshrining forever the possibility that our business laws and regulations could be determined in Brussels, and many who voted for Brexit would see that as a betrayal.
Jacob Rees-Mogg would spontaneously combust at the very idea.

So please pity Theresa May and her top ministers, because in the next 24 hours they need to come up with the words for a Schrodinger law - a text relating to the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic that is seen by the rest of the EU as legally binding and is viewed by Jacob Rees-Mogg as a worthless piece of paper.

And by the way, if you think that's a challenge, it is as nothing to the task for May of formulating what our future trade relationship with the EU should be, such that EU government heads regard her position as clear enough to publish guidelines in March for meaningful negotiations on a trade deal, while being sufficiently vague to prevent a lethal schism in her cabinet and party.

https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/p...=244+281088008

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Dave42

Impact on UK regions revealed in Brexit leak as usual North East worse off

https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-no...-leak-11240254

Shh, nonsense fiddled figures from a corrupt civil service remember. Of course, if the figures were true (which of course they’re not, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood said so) then strangely regions like the North East which voted to leave are worse affected than mainly remain voting London

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Shh, nonsense fiddled figures from a corrupt civil service remember. Of course, if the figures were true (which of course they’re not, Jacob Rees-Mogg and John Redwood said so) then strangely regions like the North East which voted to leave are worse affected than mainly remain voting London

Sometimes people just vote for change, any change in the hope it might be better, regardless of the possible consequences. . Doesn't help that they've been fed so many lies. I can seen our United Kingdom becoming very divided indeed.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Dave42

Impact on UK regions revealed in Brexit leak as usual North East worse off
https://news.sky.com/story/hit-to-no...-leak-11240254

I'm sick of all these independent reports that do nothing but give informed analysis all the time. I yearn for the good old days when a simple happy clappy slogan could be painted on the side of a bus and I wouldn't have to try and understand GCSE economics.