Post-Brexit Thread

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

There's a great article in the Financial Times that explains why the Government is taking this approach. Google "Who the UK really is negotiating with over Brexit" to read it free of charge.

It includes the statement "No, her true Brexit opponents are the UK’s media and politicians and, by extension, the public. Mrs May and her government are in an intense negotiation to obtain approval from those to whom they are, in theory, accountable. This is the settlement which matters most. The actual exit terms with the EU are of secondary importance."
https://www.ft.com/content/36e5b0e9-...9-dd2babcf2d80

I found a better article at Chatham House which goes through the process and suggests a more realistic possible outcome.

"Logically, therefore, the UK is more likely to seek a framework leading to some form of enhanced bilateral free trade and investment agreement with the EU, incorporating a strong regulatory dimension – a sort of Cross-Channel Trade and Investment Partnership or ‘CTIP’. Key elements might include: -

The part quoted starts about 1/2 way through but the whole article is worth a read.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publica...it-negotiation

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

We should pay if we think it's in our economic interest to do so. We need to be pragmatic and calculating here, walking away to prove a point or some misplaced notion of pride would be silly. We might not have to pay, it may not be worth it but if we think we should and it would be a net gain then go ahead.

If it involves privileged deals with the single market then all the better to keep the banks too.

I'm sure the Treasury or another department will have models showing the break-even points for contributing to the EU budget. However, whether commonsense economics over-rides political imperatives is another matter. That being said, if there was some kind of soft Brexit which led to the growth of Ukip, this would most likely be at the expense of the Labour Party and not the Conservatives. And the rebirth of the Liberal Democrats would be far less likely. So it could be an attractive option for May if she could keep her party together. A few donations from industry may smooth matters here.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Damien

I like this idea: http://news.sky.com/story/uk-could-p...rexit-10678735

Or pay tariffs? What's the difference?

---------- Post added at 21:36 ---------- Previous post was at 21:26 ----------

Originally Posted by martyh

If we are going to have to accept freedom of movement and paying money to the EU for the privilege of trading with them why the hell did we just have a referendum to get away from all that? Enough of all this crazy talk a more ludicrous scenario i have yet to hear

This is the very reason I voted remain, if this is the deal, what is the fracken point!

I voted remain but we lost, but I don't want "remain light". Now we've voted out I want hard out.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Or pay tariffs? What's the difference?-

I suspect that's part of the calculation. Although this would be a flat fee the government pays rather than a cost to everything companies have to face which might discourage investment. If they might have decided that avoiding that cost might be worth the fee.

---------- Post added at 21:43 ---------- Previous post was at 21:41 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

I voted remain but we lost, but I don't want "remain light". Now we've voted out I want hard out.

It's a 'hard out' in terms of the EU. This is about Britain's future relationship with Europe. If anyone thought leaving meant a complete rejection of the continent or of globalisation they were wrong.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Or pay tariffs? What's the difference?

Presumably less to pay if you pay the EU and a fixed cost so not a direct tax on trade.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Damien

If we had a better idea of what it looked like then we would have a clearer idea of what to do. Asking for what it looks like isn't an unreasonable request.[COLOR="Silver"]

Since no one knows what it looks like, yes, it is an unreasonable request

I am confident both EU citizens here and UK citizens there will be fine. Purely from a logistics point of view it's too difficult to do anything else.

Agreed

---------- Post added at 21:59 ---------- Previous post was at 21:57 ----------

Originally Posted by Kursk

Its not trolling, its advice .

You worry-wart remoaners ought to just quietly carry on working 9 to 5 and pay your taxes because that's what you do best and is what you're needed for. Governance and leadership should be left to people who can handle it: that's everyone with the foresight and confidence to vote Leave.

We are in a stronger position then many seem to think and we need to start acting like it rather then the pathetic uncertain prats the remain side are happy to portray us as constantly talking the UK down. If May doesn't deliver full brexit ukip will grow but they will take many from the tories not just labour and might even take enough to do serious damage. Ukip with no elected mp's got us a referendum even though cameron organised it in the most cowardly way ensuring the problems we are seeing, imagine ukip with a load of mp's no way May is going to risk that.

Things are changing in the west people have had enough and no politician can take elections for granted anymore it's just a question of how many more need dumping on their backside before the rest wake up and change.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Kursk

Its not trolling, its advice .

You worry-wart remoaners ought to just quietly carry on working 9 to 5 and pay your taxes because that's what you do best and is what you're needed for. Governance and leadership should be left to people who can handle it: that's everyone with the foresight and confidence to vote Leave.

Don't trolls work and pay taxes then

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Don't trolls work and pay taxes then

Ask a troll

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

We are in a stronger position then many seem to think and we need to start acting like it rather then the pathetic uncertain prats the remain side are happy to portray us as constantly talking the UK down. If May doesn't deliver full brexit ukip will grow but they will take many from the tories not just labour and might even take enough to do serious damage. Ukip with no elected mp's got us a referendum even though cameron organised it in the most cowardly way ensuring the problems we are seeing, imagine ukip with a load of mp's no way May is going to risk that.

Things are changing in the west people have had enough and no politician can take elections for granted anymore it's just a question of how many more need dumping on their backside before the rest wake up and change.

May will deliver Brexit but we're still going to have some kind of arrangement with the EU as others have explained here. No one voted for a soft or hard Brexit just Brexit.
Regarding your suggestion about Ukip challenging the Conservatives. If there's one thing to understand about new leader Paul Nuttall it's this. His focus is now on taking on working-class Labour seats in the north of England. So not a terrific problem for her. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/228322...-under-threat/

If May goes for soft brexit there will be a lot of unhappy tories and i doubt nuttall will ignore such easy pickups for ukip. Brexit that ends up paying any meaningful sum of money to the EU is not a brexit any leave voter voted for and if that's what happens you'll see the response on your TV screen.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

May will deliver Brexit but we're still going to have some kind of arrangement with the EU as others have explained here. No one voted for a soft or hard Brexit just Brexit.
Regarding your suggestion about Ukip challenging the Conservatives. If there's one thing to understand about new leader Paul Nuttall it's this. His focus is now on taking on working-class Labour seats in the north of England. So not a terrific problem for her. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/228322...-under-threat/

They're better of going oop north if their support for zach goldsmith is anything to go by. Odd as well that the public rejects them both in favour of a lib dem, brexit means brexit St Theresa or does it, time will tell

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

If May goes for soft brexit there will be a lot of unhappy tories and i doubt nuttall will ignore such easy pickups for ukip. Brexit that ends up paying any meaningful sum of money to the EU is not a brexit any leave voter voted for and if that's what happens you'll see the response on your TV screen.

There will be a lot of unhappy Tories whatever Theresa May decides. The majority of voters in the country simply didn't vote for a hard Brexit including her as that endangers the economy.
The public responses I've seen on my TV screen so far have been a 100-person protest at the Judge's A50 decision and an anti-Brexit LibDem winning the Richmond Park constituency.

---------- Post added at 08:34 ---------- Previous post was at 08:25 ----------

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

They're better of going oop north if their support for zach goldsmith is anything to go by. Odd as well that the public rejects them both in favour of a lib dem, brexit means brexit St Theresa or does it, time will tell

Richmond Park illustrates the very tricky balancing act that May faces. It's not simply a case of pandering to the Eurosceptic wing of the party if she wants to retain Conservative seats in the capital.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

They're better of going oop north if their support for zach goldsmith is anything to go by. Odd as well that the public rejects them both in favour of a lib dem, brexit means brexit St Theresa or does it, time will tell

I'd be careful about reading too much into this by election result. That constituency was 70% remain last June, it was 49.5% Lib Dem last night and in any case Heathrow airport was also a significant issue. This wasn't a Richmond re-run of the referendum and it doesn't critically alter the parliamentary maths, which were slightly awkward already.

---------- Post added at 08:49 ---------- Previous post was at 08:45 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The majority of voters in the country simply didn't vote for a hard Brexit including her as that endangers the economy.

Personally, as someone who voted leave, I'm a little tired of remainers constantly claiming they know leavers' reasons for their vote better than they do themselves. Laurie Penney tried it on on Question Time last night and quite rightly got absolutely savaged for it.

"Hard Brexit" and "Soft Brexit" are the imaginings of remainers trying to frame a debate, they are not a serious or useful means of describing the decision making process of people who voted leave.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

I'd be careful about reading too much into this by election result. That constituency was 70% remain last June, it was 49.5% Lib Dem last night and in any case Heathrow airport was also a significant issue. This wasn't a Richmond re-run of the referendum and it doesn't critically alter the parliamentary maths, which were slightly awkward already.

Surely it alters the maths in Parliament by replacing a pro-Brexit voice with an anti-Brexit voice? Granted that Zac was no longer a Conservative MP so her party's loss occurred when he resigned.

---------- Post added at 09:01 ---------- Previous post was at 08:52 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

"Hard Brexit" and "Soft Brexit" are the imaginings of remainers trying to frame a debate, they are not a serious or useful means of describing the decision making process of people who voted leave.

You'll see this terminology used across the whole political spectrum as it aids understanding of a complex problem. Vote Leave newspapers like the Daily Telegraph have been particularly keen to adopt it and explain what it means. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...d-soft-brexit/

---------- Post added at 09:03 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Personally, as someone who voted leave, I'm a little tired of remainers constantly claiming they know leavers' reasons for their vote better than they do themselves. Laurie Penney tried it on on Question Time last night and quite rightly got absolutely savaged for it.

On this issue it's a simple case of maths - we're talking about everyone who voted in the referendum not just the 51.9%.