[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well that's it isn't it. Maybe, maybe not. It's the fact that the Leave campaign are denying there is a cost at all, maybe even we'll end up ahead and according to the polls the public agree.

The thing is, unlike Scotland, it looks like Leave will win and their claims are about to be tested on that.

Yes I agree there but I'm set in my ways where the EU is concerned. Never wanted it and never will no matter what form it takes. But it's interesting listening to others air their views on the EU. Some agree with me some have different reasons and others silly reasons for leaving. However, I like listening to both sides and agree with some of what both sides say. It's all right for me I know my position and it will never change and now that I've voted I can listen to others.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Well that's it isn't it. Maybe, maybe not. It's the fact that the Leave campaign are denying there is a cost at all, maybe even we'll end up ahead and according to the polls the public agree.

The thing is, unlike Scotland, it looks like Leave will win and their claims are about to be tested on that.

Well you can bet that if leave does win there'll be all sorts of pressure to try to negate or modify the outcome (which may not necessarily be a bad thing). If, on the other hand, we stay in there's no way we're going to be another shot at this, short of there being some sort of landmark legal judgement which forces a re-run of the vote for some reason.

[Big Brian]

From what I've seen wherever I go on the net there seems to be an overwhelming majority for leave. If the real poll reflects this, it could be 60% Leave and 40% Remain.

Beware of unweighted samples (which is what the Internet is). You just can't take any straw poll as an indicator of the actual outcome.

We had Yessers here in Scotland in 2014 who were absolutely convinced they were on for a 75-25 victory based on their own doorstep canvassing, and to this day some of them are convinced the actual outcome was rigged because it differed so widely from their own sample. They were blinded to their own shortcomings.

Don't be blind - this one is genuinely impossible to call. There's no precedent. Just get out and vote on the day and make sure your friends do too (and be sure to tell them why you're voting leave).

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

If you say so. Chose to join. The English starved the Scots into it by refusing to allow trade with the colonies. There was no choice in the matter at all. However that's a different subject. The point I was making was that it is fine for one but not for the other. The economic threats, if you believe remain are the same. Trade with the EU is the same. Relocation of companies is the same. The arguments they are using are word for word the ones they used in the Scottish referendum.

Its a very different subject, I thought the Scots were starving due to the disastrous darian scheme and thought better of being the noisy neighbour due to the Duke of Marlborough and his military prowess around that time.

[Horizon]

Originally Posted by Big Brian

If you say so. Chose to join. The English starved the Scots into it by refusing to allow trade with the colonies. There was no choice in the matter at all. However that's a different subject. The point I was making was that it is fine for one but not for the other. The economic threats, if you believe remain are the same. Trade with the EU is the same. Relocation of companies is the same. The arguments they are using are word for word the ones they used in the Scottish referendum.

Firstly, on the Act Of Union, yes Scots did choose to join. The Scots barons' seals are on the Union document. You can go on about history all you like, but by then, whether right or wrong, English (Anglo/Saxon) culture was dominate on the island and Celts culture was on the margins.

The Act of Union didn't happen just happen because the Scottish Lords lost the colonies it was because, for all intents and purposes, they were English and the culture on the island had unified.

We have been a unified country for over 300 years and our culture and language became one long before that. To rip all that up with Scotland separating cannot in any way be compared to leaving the EU.

THe EU is trying to merge very different peoples and cultures together, in can only end one way. Badly.

I cannot see how in anytime in the near future British people can be the same as Czechs, Lativans or any one else. On this island we did unify and Scots did choose. It was originally the English who were luke warm on the idea, can't think why....

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Its a very different subject, I thought the Scots were starving due to the disastrous darian scheme and thought better of being the noisy neighbour due to the Duke of Marlborough and his military prowess around that time.

Indeed that was part of it. and the well to do were sneaking in under cover of darkness to sign away Scotland's Sovereignty. As Burns said:

Bought and sold for English Gold.

---------- Post added at 16:18 ---------- Previous post was at 16:12 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Beware of unweighted samples (which is what the Internet is). You just can't take any straw poll as an indicator of the actual outcome.

We had Yessers here in Scotland in 2014 who were absolutely convinced they were on for a 75-25 victory based on their own doorstep canvassing, and to this day some of them are convinced the actual outcome was rigged because it differed so widely from their own sample. They were blinded to their own shortcomings.

Don't be blind - this one is genuinely impossible to call. There's no precedent. Just get out and vote on the day and make sure your friends do too (and be sure to tell them why you're voting leave).

Perhaps I should have bean clearer and said I've been on several forums where it's overwhelmingly for leave

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the tariffs on 44% of exports would have more effect than tariffs on 16% of exports, don't you?

You are bringing facts to a bar room fig...err debate.

[Ignitionnet]

Brexit odds appear to have changed from about 4:1 a couple of weeks ago to 2:1 now.

Interesting.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Brexit odds appear to have changed from about 4:1 a couple of weeks ago to 2:1 now.

Interesting.

They've gone from about 75%-80% to 70% on here (for Remain): http://politicalodds.bet/eu-referendum

Money isn't following the polls yet but there will be two more tonight.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Gary L

But then some people will vote to stay in if they're told that being out will cost them an extra 5p on a pkt cigs. and a 1p rise on petrol.

A group of 18 year old said they will vote to stay for a stupid reason.

"There mobile roaming phone bill will go up when they go abroad"

Great to see they've got their priorities right

[techguyone]

Gen Snowflake... God help the next one.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Hugh

On that note...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/robi..._10391770.html

Remember that Leavers don't need "experts" ..

Also, this fact seems inconveniently at odds with "taking control" mantra but then what do facts have to do with anything?

This poll shows that the perception of the Brexit "facts" seems to differ from reality:

EU referendum: British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows

The British public have it wrong on immigrants and wrong on the EU.

According to their research by Ipsos MORI, British people think far more EU citizens live in the UK than actually do, that we pay far more money to the EU budget than is the case, and that we significantly overestimate the amount of benefits paid to EU migrants.

In a survey of 1,000 people, weighted to represent the nation’s demographic profile in terms of age, gender, ethnicity and other factors, respondents claimed that, on average, 15 per cent of the UK population are EU immigrants. That would be 10.5m people. The correct figure is 3.5m. Those who intend to vote Leave in the referendum put the figure at 20 per cent. ‘Remainers’ put the figure at 10 per cent.

The EU spends 6 per cent of its budget on administration. The average guess was 27 per cent.

David Cameron’s rebate did much to publicise the issue of child benefit payments to EU migrants, a fact that few people in the UK were even aware of. 14 per cent of people now think that 30 per cent of the UK’s Child Benefit budget is sent to children living overseas. 23 per cent of people think that 13 per cent of it does. The correct figure is 0.3 per cent. It means that almost 49 per cent of the population overestimate the figure by more than 40 times.

[RichardCoulter]

As an as yet undecided voter, i've been doing some research on the internet today to help me decide.

The general consensus is that neither the remain or leave campaigners can accurately predict what will happen for either scenario.

This blog seems to sum things up and doesn't attempt to influence people either way:

http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/20...eu-referendum/

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

This blog seems to sum things up and doesn't attempt to influence people either way:

http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/20...eu-referendum/

Martin Lewis (mse head honcho), has come out for Remain. Maybe he's read his own blog and come to the logical conclusion