[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU - Page 191

papa smurf · 11-06-2016, 10:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Horizon

Not the same thing at all.

Scotland chose to form the UK with England and long before political union, the Crowns of the two countries were united. We have been a united country for 300+ years. To tear that up would be disastrous.

No one has chosen to join the United States of Europe, only to join a trading bloc. We're not a united country with Europe.

its like joining the cooperative society -only to find out you've signed away sovereignty of your nation .

**Damien** · 11-06-2016, 11:07

The Leave side is acting like the Nats in the Scottish Referendum too though. Warnings of the effect on the economy are 'scaremongering' and scepticism of the vision of Leave (£350 million extra on the NHS, more jobs, less taxes, less VAT) is 'talking Britain down'.

**Hugh** · 11-06-2016, 11:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Fair enough. Do we really want it? It only seems to work one way. We export mort to them than they do to us. Can't remember the exact figure the EU export to us but it's not bank breaking is it? It can be more than made up by trading with countries we don't trade with now.

The EU exports 16% of their goods and services to us, we export 44% of our goods and services to them.

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

https://fullfact.org/europe/ask-full-fact-uks-trade-eu/

Trade agreements cover exports as well as imports, so the benefits of a single market covers both...

**Hugh** · 11-06-2016, 11:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Fair enough. Do we really want it? It only seems to work one way. We export mort to them than they do to us. Can't remember the exact figure the EU export to us but it's not bank breaking is it? It can be more than made up by trading with countries we don't trade with now.

The EU exports 16% of their goods and services to us, we export 44% of our goods and services to them.

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

https://fullfact.org/europe/ask-full-fact-uks-trade-eu/

Trade agreements cover exports as well as imports, so the benefits of a single market covers both...

Horizon · 11-06-2016, 11:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

That's unlikely, I've literally flip flopped on this for years, ten years ago I was one of the few on here arguing against the EU, then for a while I was very pro eu and now the times coming to decide I've characteristically changed my mind and side several times, at the moment I'm probably in the remain camp. I wouldn't be shocked if I didn't remain here though.

I'm broadly pro Europe and on many things I would favour closer ties, but some things have gone too far and that's why I vote Brexit.

Here are the pros and cons, as I see them, of voting leave:

Pros:

Regain border control and control numbers of immigrants.
Regain national sovereignty as a whole and only elected UK MPs make law and UK judges are the only ones to arbitrate our laws.

Stay out of the Euro and the likely collapse that will occur of the currency when euro countries opt for "ever closer union," which they have to do.

Stay out of the significant risks to Europe when EU countries start merging together. Who really believes that an Italian is like a Estonian, or a Hungarian like a Swede?

Not to be controlled by Germany. We fought and won two world wars against them to prevent that. Orders do not come from Brussels, but Berlin.

Have trade agreements with whomever we want. Can't do that being in the EU.

Risks:

On day of Brexit, the value of our currency will likely fall by a third. Our stockmarket will crash and this could cause a global meltdown. I believe this will happen, it will be painful, but it won't last forever. But whether the country wants another recession for several years is another matter.

No guarantee of access to the Single Market.

Possible loss of major City firms from London as the big banks and others relocate to the EU.

The EU decide to go to "war" with us as a warning to other countries thinking of leaving the EU and make our lives as difficult as possible.

papa smurf · 11-06-2016, 11:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien;35842377[B

]The Leave side is acting like the Nats in the Scottish Referendum [/B]too though. Warnings of the effect on the economy are 'scaremongering' and scepticism of the vision of Leave (£350 million extra on the NHS, more jobs, less taxes, less VAT) is 'talking Britain down'.

what like wanting control of their own destiny

**Damien** · 11-06-2016, 11:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf

what like wanting control of their own destiny

And like Scotland the UK will find itself limited by global markets and world events even if we left.

It's like the idea that all these wages are going to go up if we leave because of the fall in the labour supply but that assumes the pressure on wages entirely made up of only domestic concerns and that we don't compete in a global marketplace.

A lot of the arguments seem to say we'll be more competitive, have higher wages and leave the single market all at the same time. Hell let's chuck tariffs onto there as well, we'll deal with that too.

A few pages ago there was a long Facebook post largely complaining that big companies brought other companies as if this wouldn't happen post-Brexit. Leave are tapping into an anti-capitalist, anti-corporate and anti-establish mood but their being lead largely by passionate fans of the free market.

Big Brian · 11-06-2016, 11:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by Horizon

Not the same thing at all.

Scotland chose to form the UK with England and long before political union, the Crowns of the two countries were united. We have been a united country for 300+ years. To tear that up would be disastrous.

No one has chosen to join the United States of Europe, only to join a trading bloc. We're not a united country with Europe.

If you say so. Chose to join. The English starved the Scots into it by refusing to allow trade with the colonies. There was no choice in the matter at all. However that's a different subject. The point I was making was that it is fine for one but not for the other. The economic threats, if you believe remain are the same. Trade with the EU is the same. Relocation of companies is the same. The arguments they are using are word for word the ones they used in the Scottish referendum.

**Hugh** · 11-06-2016, 11:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by papa smurf

what like wanting control of their own destiny

On that note...

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/robi..._10391770.html

Quote:

The people who make the EU’s laws in Brussels are not unelected bureaucrats; they are elected politicians, accountable to the people who elected them.

Virtually every law made in Brussels must be approved by two sets of democratically-elected politicians: the Council of the European Union, which is made up of government ministers from each member state, and the European Parliament, every member of which has been elected.

These are not unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats; they are elected, accountable politicians. (There may be occasional exceptions: the government of the UK, for example, includes 24 members who have not been elected by anyone - they are members of the House of Lords, unaccountable to anyone except the prime minister of the day. In any other country, the arrangement would be regarded as profoundly undemocratic.)

Ah, say the Leave campaigners, but the UK can easily be outvoted, can’t we? We can be forced to adopt laws that our elected representatives have not approved. They are right, so let us look at some figures.

Between 1999 and March 2016, the UK was indeed outvoted in the Council 57 times. It abstained 70 times, and voted with the majority - wait for it - 2,474 times. In other words, over a roughly 15-year period, the UK’s elected representatives, members of a government that has to face the electorate every five years, voted in favour of 95% of the laws passed in Brussels.

(The figures have been calculated, by the way, by Professor Simon Hix of the London School of Economics, who is part of a group of academics called The UK in a Changing Europe, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and based at King’s College, London. He is one of the expert speakers in the sovereignty and national identity podcast in my EUTheJury series.)

Big Brian · 11-06-2016, 11:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

The Leave side is acting like the Nats in the Scottish Referendum too though. Warnings of the effect on the economy are 'scaremongering' and scepticism of the vision of Leave (£350 million extra on the NHS, more jobs, less taxes, less VAT) is 'talking Britain down'.

Exactly. The same arguments.

---------- Post added at 11:51 ---------- Previous post was at 11:48 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

The EU exports 16% of their goods and services to us, we export 44% of our goods and services to them.

https://fullfact.org/europe/where-does-eu-export/

https://fullfact.org/europe/ask-full-fact-uks-trade-eu/

Trade agreements cover exports as well as imports, so the benefits of a single market covers both...

What benefits. Work out the exports then the cost of being in the EU and see if it's worth it. Do we make a lot more in exports-imports compared to the cost of being in the EU. What Benefits?

Big Brian · 11-06-2016, 11:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

And like Scotland the UK will find itself limited by global markets and world events even if we left.

It's like the idea that all these wages are going to go up if we leave because of the fall in the labour supply but that assumes the pressure on wages entirely made up of only domestic concerns and that we don't compete in a global marketplace.

A lot of the arguments seem to say we'll be more competitive, have higher wages and leave the single market all at the same time. Hell let's chuck tariffs onto there as well, we'll deal with that too.

A few pages ago there was a long Facebook post largely complaining that big companies brought other companies as if this wouldn't happen post-Brexit. Leave are tapping into an anti-capitalist, anti-corporate and anti-establish mood but their being lead largely by passionate fans of the free market.

I honestly can't see the EU slapping high tariffs on us as we would do the same to them so it would be of no use to them.

**Hugh** · 11-06-2016, 11:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

I honestly can't see the EU slapping high tariffs on us as we would do the same to them so it would be of no use to them.

I think the tariffs on 44% of exports would have more effect than tariffs on 16% of exports, don't you?

Big Brian · 11-06-2016, 12:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the tariffs on 44% of exports would have more effect than tariffs on 16% of exports, don't you?

If I could do the math on this I would.

Exports revenue minus imports costs then take that from the cost of being in the EU. Maths was never my strong point. Is the final figure worth the price of being in the EU?

**Damien** · 11-06-2016, 12:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Brian

Is the final figure worth the price of being in the EU?

Well that's it isn't it. Maybe, maybe not. It's the fact that the Leave campaign are denying there is a cost at all, maybe even we'll end up ahead and according to the polls the public agree.

The thing is, unlike Scotland, it looks like Leave will win and their claims are about to be tested on that.

GrimUpNorth · 11-06-2016, 12:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the tariffs on 44% of exports would have more effect than tariffs on 16% of exports, don't you?

It all depends what the underlying monetary values are. If in monetary terms the value of our imports are 3 or more times the value of our exports then the percentages are meaningless poppycock designed to do nothing more than cloud the real issue (not sure of the monetary values so could well be spouting rubbish).

Cheers

Grim