[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Your statement is not based in fact...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/ne...ays-in-Europe/ You appear to be including our Bank Holidays, but not the European countries ones.

That's what Fact Check said yesterday on BBC so was going by that.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

If we leave aside our own biases and try to discuss this objectively what does everyone think the actual result will be and why?

As I said above I think that a combination of anti-establishment mood as well as a serious underestimation of the Leave vote in Northern Labour heartlands will win this for Leave. I can't explain why the polls aren't picking this up, and it may be apprehension talking, but the underlying questions in the polling are alarming for Remain. Only 1/3rd of the electorate think there will be any economic impact in Leaving for example whilst the vast majority think immigration will go down. 50% of Labour voters think Labour supports Leave. Most voters think EU immigration accounts for 15% of the population as opposed to 5%.

Essentially the Leave campaign is working. Despite the 50-50 in the polls most voters think Brexit will not hurt the economy but will reduce migration. If that's the case Remain is finished. Either the headline poll numbers are wrong or the underlying poll numbers are wrong. There is no way most voters think the economy will be fine but will vote to Remain anyway.

Personally l would be very wary of the polls given the volatility of the electorate in these past few years.

Originally Posted by Big Brian

That's what Fact Check said yesterday on BBC so was going by that.

I could find nothing on this page that stated EU workers only get 20 days holiday - can you provide a link, please?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36434855

The minimum in Europe is 20 days plus statutory holidays, just like the UK, but most European countries have more statutory holidays than us - you appeared to be comparing our total amount against theirs without statutory.

Similarly with maternity leave, you compared the statutory minimum for EU countries (14 weeks) with ours (52 weeks - SMP lasts 39 weeks, and for the first six weeks, SMP is paid at 90 per cent of average earnings, and for the next 33 weeks, it is paid at the same 90 per cent or at the flat rate, whichever is lower.), but obviously didn't realise that Germany gives mothers 14 weeks of full pay, and both parents can take 14 months of parental leave at 65% of salary during the child's first 3 years, whilst in France they get 16 weeks full pay (26 weeks for the 3rd child).

Originally Posted by denphone

Personally l would be very wary of the polls given the volatility of the electorate in these past few years.

Theoretically this should be easier to poll because it's a binary choice and not subject to tactical voting or constituency implications. The polling in the Scottish referendum was very good for the most part as was the AV referendum.

What would be different is if they've failed to pick up overwhelming support for Leave among working class voters in the North somehow. This is a demographic that doesn't have a huge turnout so it may be they've been overlooked in polling.

[techguyone]

I'm hoping for Leave but suspect Remain will edge it.

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I'm hoping for Leave but suspect Remain will edge it.

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

Well the bookies rarely get it wrong and they favour the Remain camp to win.

https://www.justbookies.com/election...EyIaAp0S8P8HAQ

Originally Posted by techguyone

I'm hoping for Leave but suspect Remain will edge it.

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

Why do you think Remain will win? Status-quo effect?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Tonight's debate.

350m a week "IN" asked him it's a lie they said. Well maybe in the sense of what we get back but we still have to pay out 350m first before any rebate. The point being why don't we just pay 150m a week instead and keep the rest

I'm pretty sure that's what happens we don't pay the rebate money out and then receive it back again.

I heard the rebate is only conditional for a short period of time?

Well Mrs T negotiated the rebate so it has been in place for at least 30years, and I don't believe there are any plans to give it up.

What a load of Tosh, under the AUS point system they could select the right "skilled" people to work here and fast track them where needed after going through stringent checks this can be from anywhere in the world

We can do that now.

or are they saying the EU will be black listing the UK to stop workers coming here.

no.

How many EU supposed "skilled" people come here setup a company for example a Dentist and they been deemed unsafe to practice but were simple allowed in because of EU rules.

I don't know, how many?

Originally Posted by denphone

Well the bookies rarely get it wrong and they favour the Remain camp to win.

https://www.justbookies.com/election...EyIaAp0S8P8HAQ

They got the election wrong. The betting markets are factoring in polling and the belief that the economy is what decides votes. My contention is that they're all underestimating the Labour Leave vote.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by techguyone

During the last two Ge's the pollsters pretty much got it bang on, it's becoming a more exact science now.

Yes they were bang on with the last GE predictions

[techguyone]

Originally Posted by Damien

Why do you think Remain will win? Status-quo effect?

I think fear of the unknown will win.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Yes they were bang on with the last GE predictions

The main problem there was underestimating the movement to the Tories in LibDem constituencies due to fears over a Labour/SNP alliance. They got a lot right in 2015 such as the performance of Labour, SNP and UKIP.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Damien

If we leave aside our own biases and try to discuss this objectively what does everyone think the actual result will be and why?

As I said above I think that a combination of anti-establishment mood as well as a serious underestimation of the Leave vote in Northern Labour heartlands will win this for Leave. I can't explain why the polls aren't picking this up, and it may be apprehension talking, but the underlying questions in the polling are alarming for Remain. Only 1/3rd of the electorate think there will be any economic impact in Leaving for example whilst the vast majority think immigration will go down. 50% of Labour voters think Labour supports Leave. Most voters think EU immigration accounts for 15% of the population as opposed to 5%.

Essentially the Leave campaign is working. Despite the 50-50 in the polls most voters think Brexit will not hurt the economy but will reduce migration. If that's the case Remain is finished. Either the headline poll numbers are wrong or the underlying poll numbers are wrong. There is no way most voters think the economy will be fine but will vote to Remain anyway.

I mentioned earlier, I have seen the result and it is 52.3% Remain*

Why is because of the clear risks involved. Most people are risk averse as the Scottish vote showed and so there will be a nervous "better the devil I know" micro-swing at the last minute ...

* with the ususal 10% margin of error

[Osem]

I think we'll stay in and it'll prove to be a very bad decision. Not because getting out will be easy or pain free but because staying in will prove to be a disaster as a series of events unfold. Time will tell.

[Big Brian]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I could find nothing on this page that stated EU workers only get 20 days holiday - can you provide a link, please?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36434855

The minimum in Europe is 20 days plus statutory holidays, just like the UK, but most European countries have more statutory holidays than us - you appeared to be comparing our total amount against theirs without statutory.

Similarly with maternity leave, you compared the statutory minimum for EU countries (14 weeks) with ours (52 weeks - SMP lasts 39 weeks, and for the first six weeks, SMP is paid at 90 per cent of average earnings, and for the next 33 weeks, it is paid at the same 90 per cent or at the flat rate, whichever is lower.), but obviously didn't realise that Germany gives mothers 14 weeks of full pay, and both parents can take 14 months of parental leave at 65% of salary during the child's first 3 years, whilst in France they get 16 weeks full pay (26 weeks for the 3rd child).

No as it was answering questions from people who had left a message in Just ASK. They had it on news channel all day yesterday and there were 3 people giving so called facts. But they said it was part of fact check. Yes that comparison is probably what they did.

---------- Post added at 11:32 ---------- Previous post was at 11:29 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

Personally l would be very wary of the polls given the volatility of the electorate in these past few years.

At the moment Leave have the momentum and I think they may just scrape through. Having said that we don't know what dirty tricks have still to be played. We saw the start of it last night when the remainers a ganged up on Boris.