You may be able to check whether your upgrade will actually be to 10Mb
here, BorderLine. That's exactly what I did. All I did was complete the upgrade online and reboot my modem - no need for an ntl man to come out.
AFAIK ntl were supposed to be upgrading all 3Mb users by the end of last year so, yes, upgrading to the £37.99 tier should get you 10Mb.
As curioustech says, though, you won't get a full 10Mb connection on USB. Your modem will be connected at that speed, but your connection to it won't be as fast. However, if you have an ethernet port on your machine, you just need to power everything down, remove the USB cable, replace it with a patch (straight through) ethernet lead - couple of quid in any computer shop - reboot the modem, let it settle, and reboot your PC. You could do that at the same time as you do your speed upgrade.
If you don't have an ethernet port, you could pick up an ethernet PCI card for a fiver online - computer shop might charge a bit more - and they're easy to install.
It would probably be a good idea, after changing from USB to ethernet, to go into Add/Remove Programs and uninstall the USB modem driver.
One other thing, though - your connection speed may depend on your modem model - I know the ntl: 200 and ntl: 250 are fine, but I'm not sure about the others.