[Update] The UK votes to leave the EU

Wee Nippy's threats of a fresh referendum in the event of a vote to leave the EU is a lot of hot air. It's party management, pure and simple. There are about 100,000 permanently outraged Yessers in the ranks of the SNPee now and the last thing she wants is them getting rowdy, or worse, defenestrating her for not being nationalist enough. So, she plays to the gallery and keeps them hanging on.

Meanwhile, those in the nationalist movement with a brain (and there are some), know that the fundamentals of Scottish independence have not changed. For most Scottish voters it is a simple calculation of convenience, primarily economic convenience. Scots may prefer the EU, but they know that being in the UK, even if it is outside the EU, is preferable to being in the EU but outside the UK. The arguments over economic and monetary policy in 2014 were decisive and have not changed (if anything they have got worse, and it doesn't help the Nats that some of those that drew up the so-called white paper have now admitted that they knew it was nonsense on stilts even then).

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by pip08456

That means we will have to have immigration controls on the Scottish border if we vote out surely?

Given they'd also be obliged to join Schengen absolutely.

[Ramrod]

If we weren't somewhat 'in' as far as we are already and the question was simply: "should we join the EU?" .......the answer would be "NO" (or words to that effect)

[Gavin78]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

If we weren't somewhat 'in' as far as we are already and the question was simply: "should we join the EU?" .......the answer would be "NO" (or words to that effect)

The answer can still be the same. there is that much media crap around the in/out of the EU and tons of stuff the gov is feeding us that is right and wrong information coupled with the fact that most of the country doesn't actually know what fully goes on with the EU it is difficult to make a decision.

As a country long before the EU we have managed to succeed I certainly can't see why we can't do it again. The only thing that bothers me is will we still be protected under working rights and family rights or will the gov see being out of the EU and setting their own laws a witch hunt against the population.

[heero_yuy]

Britain’s membership of the European Union is shown to have had no positive impact on trade with other members in a detailed analysis of UK exports published today by the cross-party think tank Civitas.

A painstaking study of British export figures since 1960 exposes the “empty rhetoric” behind oft-repeated claims that the EU gives the UK an essential trade advantage.

Britain’s trade with other EU nations accounts for no more of its trade with all leading economies than it did on joining the European Economic Community in 1973, the report shows. Meanwhile, exports to non-EU nations Iceland, Norway and Switzerland have increased enormously over the same period.

Full report here

Thus nailing the lie that the UK would suffer outside the EU, wheras in reality the EU has failed us.

But Burrage says: “To present it as a success, in the manner of the UK Department of Business, Innovation & Skills’ recent portrayal of the doubling of exports to new member countries, or to claim it is a prized achievement, or a ‘privilege’, or ‘a vital national interest’ that must be defended at all costs, only sounds vaguely plausible if UK exporters are never compared with those of other member or non-member countries, and if their performance in the Single Market is never compared with their performance before it existed, or with their performance in other markets.

“Once such comparisons begin to be made, these claims are seen to be empty rhetoric, and those who repeat them may be seen to have been misleading themselves and others about the merits of the Single Market. Unfortunately, constant repetition of them over recent years has already done immense harm, since they have discouraged close investigation, measurement and analysis of the UK experience within the Single Market. We have, therefore, still not begun to understand what has gone wrong and how it might be fixed.”

[heero_yuy]

Sir Michael Caine backs Brexit:

SIR Michael Caine lashed out at “faceless civil servants” making decision for the UK as he backed leaving the EU.

The Italian Job and Zulu actor said he was “certain” Britain should leave unless there were some “extremely significant” reforms.

Asked which camp he would back in the upcoming referendum, he told theToday programme: "I sort of feel certain we should come out."

"Unless there is some extremely significant changes, we should get out."

Linky

I heard the interview on R4 Today programme. Sir Michael was quite firm.

[Osem]

Well if the Eurocrats have embarked upon a behind the scenes campaign to manage the situation and thereby steer the UK into remaining, they're doing a pretty poor job. Just about every week which goes by brings a new example of EU ineptitude, dithering, infighting, procrastination or flawed thinking and I have a feeling things are going to get worse, much worse.

If the EU was a sinking ship I don't think its numerous masters would even get around to rearranging the deckchairs, let alone successfully evacuating it...

If I didn't want out before the tobacco products directive would have swung me never has there been such a bad piece of legislation and demonstrates all that is wrong with the EU, that said draft proposals by some within our political system are more disgusting. As the referendum comes closer I expect things to get dirtier and nastier and if we do vote to come out I expect Cameron to squirm trying to delay the exit as long as he can. Just give us the vote now and let's be done with it we all know Cameron isn't going to get anything really significant in terms of reform he'll get mud and try to dress it up as gold.

[Osem]

Leaving will not be a quick process as all sorts of things will have to be negotiated and put in place before the transition can be completed. There may even be protracted legal challenges to some of what would be necessary and that would inevitably delay things.

Originally Posted by Osem

Leaving will not be a quick process as all sorts of things will have to be negotiated and put in place before the transition can be completed. There may even be protracted legal challenges to some of what would be necessary and that would inevitably delay things.

The Out campaign wants a second referendum that would theoretically take place once all everything is ready to act as a trigger to leave or abandon the process and stay in. Although this is effectively just a strategy to 'derisk' the referendum (people would be far more willing to vote to leave if there is the option to decide not too later on) it does also show the complexity of what is too come.

[Osem]

Sounds like just another opportunity for us to give the 'right' answer if we get it 'wrong' first time around...

Originally Posted by Osem

Sounds like just another opportunity for us to give the 'right' answer if we get it 'wrong' first time around...

Well the Pro-EU side might do that if they lose, at the moment they need to make sure this vote carries a lot of weight. I.E "We will leave and it will be bad so think very carefully". That's also why they said the other day that the Treasury has 'no backup plans' if we leave.

[Osem]

It's quite clear to me that the IN lot are going to try all sorts of tactics to get their way. Having said that, the EU continues, almost daily, to provide cast iron reasons why we should get out. The really big genie, uncontrolled migration, is of course out of its bottle and no amount of economic scaremongering by the likes of Stuart Rose will alter that.

[Mr K]

The OUT side are looking increasingly desperate. Divided, disorganised with key players bought off or silenced. The UK isn't leaving the EU, its not going to be allowed, the 'referendum' is irrelevant. Quite right too, Dave's playing a blinder on this one, he's gone up in my estimation.

[Hom3r]

Outside the EU we can trade with other countries with the EU telling us if we can.

Plus we can send paedophiles to prison for whole life with out the EU saying its not legal.