To AV, or not to AV?

[Chrysalis]

chris I wont be responding to you anymore, I dont like been asked for basis in a credibility argument when I have provided basis and your only reply is to ask me for more. There is nothing wrong saying you disagree with me, but to keep asking for me to repeat what I am saying so we go in a loop for god knows how many pages isnt been constructive.

my view is based on local council results which labour had significantly better gains than the tories. I have told you this now 3 times, yet a new reply is "provide me basis". You completely close minded.

Ironically I think labour stand to lose out in the long term and will be in serious trouble if scotland vote for full independence.

Labour voters wouldnt vote tories in scotland in significant numbers, they prefer SDP to labour yes but no way they prefer the tories to labour. Thats your mistake. Also as said to you before scotland has a different voting system.

Originally Posted by Chrysalis

chris I wont be responding to you anymore, I dont like been asked for basis in a credibility argument when I have provided basis and your only reply is to ask me for more. There is nothing wrong saying you disagree with me, but to keep asking for me to repeat what I am saying so we go in a loop for god knows how many pages isnt been constructive.

my view is based on local council results which labour had significantly better gains than the tories. I have told you this now 3 times, yet a new reply is "provide me basis". You completely close minded.

Ironically I think labour stand to lose out in the long term and will be in serious trouble if scotland vote for full independence.

Labour voters wouldnt vote tories in scotland in significant numbers, they prefer SDP to labour yes but no way they prefer the tories to labour. Thats your mistake. Also as said to you before scotland has a different voting system.

SNP. SNP. It's the Scottish NATIONAL Party. Honestly, if you're going to castigate me for being thorough at least have the brains to research and understand your own subject.

Furthermore, please stop accusing me of claiming that Scottish voters might prefer Tories to Labour. If you had the common decency to actually *read* my post rather than simply hitting Reply and dribbling all over your keyboard you would have grasped that what I actually said is several light years away from that.

But, you assume you know it all and you don't enjoy having your unassailable grip on truth challenged, so if you find it easier to ignore awkward arguments rather than engage with them, by all means go for it, sit in a corner, plug your ears up and hum a happy tune.

[jamiefrost]

Originally Posted by Chrysalis

lets post the full picture.

Party Total +/- Total +/-
Conservative 157 +4 4820 +81
Labour 57 +26 2392 +800
Liberal Democrat 10 -9 1056 -695

% wise the tories lost out.

Not sure where your results are from but from the BBC website

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-12913122

Number of councillors

Con 5109 54%
Lab 2459 26%
Lib 1098 12%
Other 793 08%

Using this as a basis for national government, from the UK polling website this is

Conservative 476 seats (+170)
Labour 143 seats (-115)
Liberal Democrats 8 seats (-49)
Others 5 seats (-6)
Northern Ireland 18 seats (nc)

This is a Conservative Majority of 302.

Personally I don't think that this has much basis in real life either as I don't think you really translate local to national (my local vote would not be the same, and I didn't vote Conservative). but in general terms the Conservatives position has improved along with Labours.

JJ

Those elections were not as good as labour thought they would be for them hell some labour people have even said as much and given the outright hostility towards this coalition at the minute they damn well should have done a lot better. There is absolutely no reason for a general election to be called but if it were i think labour would be in bigger trouble as what i think coalition has done is refocus people's minds and made them come round to one party government is better.

I am also pretty sure that the majority of people in the UK have no intention of labour being that one party until such time as the country is put back on it's feet and most still do remember who is to blame for our current woes.

Now I believe the topic was about AV and the results of the referendum not about whom did or did not win the council elections..and possibly where the chances of AV or PR are now.

[Chrysalis]

I think the chances of PR are dead in the water barring an election result which sees a party get power without getting the most votes (entirely possible with FPTP).

Look at the vote share of the 2010 election, with an extra few % labour would have won but would have had less votes than the tories. Labour by far are the best recipients of FPTP, if was PR they would have had only a bit more seats than the lib dems and the tories would have been much further ahead.

This is because boundary changes over the past decade have tended to create seats that are easier for Labour to win (due to their size and demographics) and at the same time seats that are harder for the Tories to win (for the same reason).

The reform bill that would have contained AV will still come before Parliament, because one of the issues that is still going to be addressed by the coalition is the number of constituencies in the UK Parliament and their size. The aim is to reduce the number and equalize their size as far as possible.

Labour is dead set against this, as one of the main consequences of the changes will be to reduce the phenomenon you have described.

Incidentally, the Scottish National Party has an outright majority in Holyrood based on about 45% of the popular vote in a supposedly proportional electoral system. There's no such thing as perfect democracy, as they say.

There is always the dream of a perfect voting system but as long as man is involved in it's creation no such practical result. I think this is now a dead issue and in some ways i am glad we have more important things to be worrying about as a country right now. Voting reform is something i don't see as a major thing in the UK at the current time and is more of an exercise for those already polishing a seat with their backside in westminster.

[Chrysalis]

Originally Posted by Chris

This is because boundary changes over the past decade have tended to create seats that are easier for Labour to win (due to their size and demographics) and at the same time seats that are harder for the Tories to win (for the same reason).

The reform bill that would have contained AV will still come before Parliament, because one of the issues that is still going to be addressed by the coalition is the number of constituencies in the UK Parliament and their size. The aim is to reduce the number and equalize their size as far as possible.

Labour is dead set against this, as one of the main consequences of the changes will be to reduce the phenomenon you have described.

Incidentally, the Scottish National Party has an outright majority in Holyrood based on about 45% of the popular vote in a supposedly proportional electoral system. There's no such thing as perfect democracy, as they say.

yeah I know about that boundary changes, although I think the tories are playing the same game and will be aiming to give themselves the advantage before the next election. With PR tho it wouldnt matter.

[Chrysalis]

guys what about these graphs?

not some prediction by me but this is based on real world data.

http://www6.politicalbetting.com/ind...y-cut-and-run/

my gut feeling seemed right, however council results dont translate into general election results.

[Ignitionnet]

Love the comments noting how the general election landscape is rigged towards Labour and their pathetic and hypocritical whinging about Tory gerrymandering is over something that still won't get close to equalising things.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Love the comments noting how the general election landscape is rigged towards Labour and their pathetic and hypocritical whinging about Tory gerrymandering is over something that still won't get close to equalising things.

Of course both do quite well at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by Damien

Of course both do quite well at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

If they will insist on showing a socialist face to the north and a centre-right one to the south I've little sympathy. Had they not been so busy telling people what they want to hear they wouldn't be having to confront so many accusations of broken promises in government.

[Chrysalis]

no sympathy from me either, I am one of those let down by them.

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

If they will insist on showing a socialist face to the north and a centre-right one to the south I've little sympathy. Had they not been so busy telling people what they want to hear they wouldn't be having to confront so many accusations of broken promises in government.

Ok but then you can't really complain of boundaries being unfair if you have 'little sympathy' when it's working against a party you don't like.