Who do you think will win the election?

[bob_builder]

As a parallel thread to the voting intentions (http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...d.php?t=27772), I thought it would be interesting to find out who everybody thought would win the election on Thursday, rather than who they will vote for.

We can then compare this result with the Cable Forum exit poll and the actual result - just for fun!

So, go on then, who do you think will win the general election 2005?

I don't really care who wins, as long as they keep the green policy going to reduce CO2 emissions.

[Ramrod]

Labour, unfortunately

Labour, reduced majority.

[orangebird]

Originally Posted by Ramrod

Labour, unfortunately

Same here

[Gareth]

Originally Posted by andyl

Labour, reduced majority.

Yep, I'd agree with that.

[Xaccers]

It doens't matter who you vote for, the goverment always gets in

I sure wish this was a public poll ... I'd dearly love to know who is of the honest opinion that the Tories are going to win! They have a mountain to climb, bigger than it even appears to be thanks to boundary changes, and the fact that we are now a true three-party democracy, unlike the last time a Tory opposition won power in 1979. The swing the Tories need is beyond them, barring a miracle.

The only thing that could upset the apple cart is the 'invisible' campaign the commentators have only really started talking about this weekend, in the key marginals. It appears that the real election battle has been going on in only a very few location this time, so it's perhaps unsurprising that national polling appears to show so little movement.

I think the result on Thursday is going to be feindishly difficult to call with any accuracy. At the end of the day the British electorate is a very sophisticated one and I predict tactical voting on a grander scale than we have ever seen this week. FWIW, I expect to see a Labour administration with a much reduced majority. Whether it is reduced to the point the Tories suffered in 1992, with all the attendant problems that would mean, I don't know.

As a parting shot, I note that the perception of likely outcome we ourselves are expressing in this thread - overwhelmingly of the belief that Labour will win - is exactly the message Labour fears, and that the Tories secretly want. With a big swing out of the question, the Tories best hope lies in the apathy of traditional Labourites who think they don't have to vote because the result is a foregone conclusion.

[allieyoung666]

I wish that none of them would get in as they are all a load of rubbish and I am getting sick of them slagging each other off every night now BORRRRRRINGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

[bob_builder]

I agree with you, Chris. I think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament.

Regarding the marginals, I think the LibDems will be the only winners there, with both the Conservative and Labour swings cancelling each other out. That will reduce Labour's majority - whether it will be enough to create a hung parliament remains to be seen.

[jeffcrouch]

hmm - labour, reduced majority. luckily alot of people on my generation (30-35 years) remember how bad the last conservative government were. i agree labour aren't brilliant, but please, go to any country and ask if they are happy with the government there? course not. And i'm sorry, Michael Howard? I think not. Middle class party representing middle/upper classes - i hope Lib Dems do well, its just a pity they are never a 'real alternative'..

[Halcyon]

It was quite funny today on the news some guy was waving a "Do not vote for this man" poster as Michael Howard was being interviewed.

I unfortuantely think Labour will win it again.....they always do.

How does a hung parliament help anyone?

Originally Posted by Damien

How does a hung parliament help anyone?

No Overall Control prevents any one Party from forming a Government. If you don't like the thought of a Labour goverment, but you know that the opposition parties stand no chance of winning, it's the best you can hope for.

And don't go complaining that it's unfair that the winning party doesn't get to take control, no party has won a general election with more than 50% of the vote for some considerable time, so we have had minority government in this country for decades.

I am not complaining about that and I know what a hung parliament is. It will be hard for things to get done and chances are a new election would be called