Vote 2005 week 3, with another new poll

Right, as promised, here is the continuation of the Vote 2005 thread. It has a new poll so we can track changing opinion during the election campaign. The scores achieved by each poll option during weeks 1 and 2 are bracketed within the options available this week.

Please feel free to continue discussing any issues raised during week 2 by copying and pasting. The week 2 thread is closed but you can still read it here:

http://www.cableforum.co.uk/board/sh...566#post452566

Intrestingly the results are quite similer to all the polls in that labour has been increasing, and tory staying the same.

I belive that the torys continuing talk about immigration isnt winning any new votes, everyone knows about it now so they have made up there mind of this issue

The polls indeed show the Tories are not getting the breakthrough they will need. Interestingly the Tory score in the various polls tracked by the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2...ml/default.stm

.... is pretty much consistent with our own polling here. Labour, however, is doing far worse in our polls. To an extent this depends of course on how the question is framed and what options are available, we have 'Not voting' and 'undecided' in our poll.

Our own results so far are most like those from YouGov, which I guess makes sense because YouGov is an internet-based poll. A few days ago we were discussing the merits of internet polling due to its potentially skewed sample, but on Today this morning someone was saying that a large-scale internet poll is actually more likely to be accurate than the traditional polls conducted by the likes of MORI and ICM. Certainly when you examine the stats on that BBC site you find the YouGov sample size is twice that of any of the others, while margin of error is just 2% compared to 3% for all the others.

If that's the case, the race is a little closer than Labour would like to think.

[bob_builder]

Originally Posted by ian@huth

I know, but we will be away when the postal vote forms arrive.

What about voting by proxy?
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Originally Posted by Chris T

Our own results so far are most like those from YouGov, which I guess makes sense because YouGov is an internet-based poll. A few days ago we were discussing the merits of internet polling due to its potentially skewed sample, but on Today this morning someone was saying that a large-scale internet poll is actually more likely to be accurate than the traditional polls conducted by the likes of MORI and ICM. Certainly when you examine the stats on that BBC site you find the YouGov sample size is twice that of any of the others.

Does anybody know how one could take part in the YouGov poll - do you have to be invited?

Originally Posted by bob_builder

What about voting by proxy?
__________________


Does anybody know how one could take part in the YouGov poll - do you have to be invited?

Looks like you sign up with YouGov:

http://www.yougov.com/yougov_website...asp?wID=0&uID=

Presumably they weight the results of each poll they conduct to ensure it reflects the composition of the electorate. They are claiming to have called recent elections correctly to within 1% of the actual result.

[bob_builder]

Originally Posted by Chris T

Looks like you sign up with YouGov:

http://www.yougov.com/yougov_website...asp?wID=0&uID=

Presumably they weight the results of each poll they conduct to ensure it reflects the composition of the electorate. They are claiming to have called recent elections correctly to within 1% of the actual result.

Thanks Chris
I would rep you but you have already been too helpful so it will not let me

[Nugget]

Originally Posted by bob_builder

Thanks Chris
I would rep you but you have already been too helpful so it will not let me

Repped for you matey

It looks as if Mr. Howard has blown this one, last night's ITV programme has embarrassed him.

Also fascinating that Rupert Murdoch is now being critical of Tory policy on immigration.

The Guardian

It is extremely nasty as the Tories do, to infer there is uncontrolled immigration when the evidence is that the immigration service is in fact controlling immigration.

Originally Posted by Chris T

The polls indeed show the Tories are not getting the breakthrough they will need. Interestingly the Tory score in the various polls tracked by the BBC:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2...ml/default.stm

.... is pretty much consistent with our own polling here. Labour, however, is doing far worse in our polls. To an extent this depends of course on how the question is framed and what options are available, we have 'Not voting' and 'undecided' in our poll.

Our own results so far are most like those from YouGov, which I guess makes sense because YouGov is an internet-based poll. A few days ago we were discussing the merits of internet polling due to its potentially skewed sample, but on Today this morning someone was saying that a large-scale internet poll is actually more likely to be accurate than the traditional polls conducted by the likes of MORI and ICM. Certainly when you examine the stats on that BBC site you find the YouGov sample size is twice that of any of the others, while margin of error is just 2% compared to 3% for all the others.

If that's the case, the race is a little closer than Labour would like to think.

Labour usually have a more 'lazy' vote. In other words I would expect tory voters to be more determined hence why internet polls may have a bigger rate for the torys. Because they are actively looking for them?\

Originally Posted by Damien

Labour usually have a more 'lazy' vote. In other words I would expect tory voters to be more determined hence why internet polls may have a bigger rate for the torys. Because they are actively looking for them?

If that were the case, YouGov would not be able to boast an accuracy rate of as little as 1% off the actual result. Based on what I have read and heard over the last couple of days, I am definitely tending to think of YouGov as the most accurate poll.

[Nugget]

Originally Posted by Damien

Labour usually have a more 'lazy' vote. In other words I would expect tory voters to be more determined hence why internet polls may have a bigger rate for the torys. Because they are actively looking for them?\

How on earth do you justify that? With the amount of criticism that Labour have received recently, even 'lazy' voters wouldn't necessarily just plump for the status quo.

Originally Posted by Nugget

How on earth do you justify that? With the amount of criticism that Labour have received recently, even 'lazy' voters wouldn't necessarily just plump for the status quo.

I mean that in this election (and the last one) labour are seen as favorites. Hence they may not have such a die-hard suppport. The Tories are chasing the vote and theres more of a feeling amongst torys that every vote will count etc.

In other words labour supporters think they will win, while torys think they may win if they work at it
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I think when sky news do a 'poll of polls' where the average ALL the polls out may be the best one.

[Nugget]

Originally Posted by Damien

I mean that in this election (and the last one) labour are seen as favorites. Hence they may not have such a die-hard suppport. The Tories are chasing the vote and theres more of a feeling amongst torys that every vote will count etc.

In other words labour supporters think they will win, while torys think they may win if they work at it
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I think when sky news do a 'poll of polls' where the average ALL the polls out may be the best one.

TBH, I think you'll find that even a lot of Torys don't think that they'll win it, and are seeing this election as damage limitation.

I'm not stating this as fact though, it's just my opinion, taking into account the fact that Labour still have a massive majority.

Based on the YouGov poll labour would have a majority of 104. It would require a futher 3% swing from the yougov poll to get a hung parlament.

Originally Posted by Damien

Based on the YouGov poll labour would have a majority of 104. It would require a futher 3% swing from the yougov poll to get a hung parlament.

Have you played around with the 'fine tune' option on the Beeb site?

http://news3.thdo.bbc.co.uk/nol/shar...CULATE+RESULTS

I input the YouGov poll results, then adjusted results in marginal constituencies a little to simulate tactical voting against Labour (with Labour pretty much guaranteed to lose seats this time there seemed little point in adjusting any tactical voting in Labour's favour). I was quite surprised to find Labour's majority reduced to just 44!

Go and put your own figures in it, it's fun.