Vote 2005, week 2, new poll!

[etccarmageddon]

yeah the ERM was a policitally motivated economic policy rather than a practical one - a Major balls up.

Quite a large swing from Lib Dems on the poll I see

Originally Posted by Shaun

That was then though, now they have the economy on an even keel. I feel so sorry for all of those people that have mortgages, if the Tory's get in I can see so many repossessions when people are put out of work and interest rates go up.

Especially all those Michael want to sack from the public services (as waste) can't see them keeping up with their repayments.

I take it you weren't brought up in house where your father couldn't get a job for 8 years and then when he did it wasn't enough to pay the mortgage, even with my mother working nights. If you want to go back there then thats great but please don't drag the rest of us there.

Isn't this a little like claiming it was inevitable that post 1997, we would return to strikes, high direct tax and VAT rates and a clutch of inefficient, overmanned, nationalised industries?

With the benefit of hindsight it's clear to see that Labour since about 1995 is not the same thing as Labour in the late 1970s. Thank God.

Given that past performance is no guarantee of future performance, I really can't see what evidence you are basing your post on. Clearly you and you family suffered a lot during Thatcher's economic reforms, but being personally hurt by a political party's past actions is not in itself evidence that they are going to do the same again.

In fact, I think it's simplistic to point the finger at the Tories for the hardship your family went through. It's a bit like accusing the doctor that administers your chemotherapy of making your hair fall out. I don't mean in any way to belittle what was obviously a nightmare for you and I can't claim to understand what it was like because my own family didn't suffer in that way. But, I think the painful remedy for the disfunctional state of our economy was necessary because of outrageous, untried social experimentation on the part of previous Labour governments and the failure of previous Conservative governments to deal with it decisively while in power.

Labour has clearly left those days behind it, and I am confident that the Tories are not about to cause unemployment and high interest rates again because the economy does not require the kind of radical amputation surgery that caused so much heartache last time. Labour has not got the economy back on an even keel. You will find it extremely difficult to find any economist who does not subscribe to the consensus that it was Tory policies that got the economy back on an even keel as a result of two decades of structural reform which Labour has reaped the benefit of by not trying to unpick that reform.
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Originally Posted by Diamond

Quite a large swing from Lib Dems on the poll I see

It's a classic poll pattern. A lot of people think the Lib Dems talk a lot of sense, but as polling say draws closer, they start to consider how their vote might actually be put to best use. The Lib Dems stand no chance of winning in my constituency, so I switched my vote from them to Tory. They used to hold this seat and were in second place in 2001.

[bob_builder]

Originally Posted by Chris T

It's a classic poll pattern. A lot of people think the Lib Dems talk a lot of sense, but as polling say draws closer, they start to consider how their vote might actually be put to best use. The Lib Dems stand no chance of winning in my constituency, so I switched my vote from them to Tory. They used to hold this seat and were in second place in 2001.

It is sad but under the current FPTP system the LibDems will only do well in certain constituencies and only then as a protest vote against the ruling party.

Smaller paries such as UKIP stand no chance of getting any MPs and I do wonder why they bother putting up candidates rather than trying to steer the vote towards their best interests - all they really end up doing is splitting the Conservative vote and increasing the chance of Labour winning, which is ironinc as they share much more common ground with the Conservatives than Labour!

Under a PR system like the European elections (although even that is not perfect*) UKIP and the LibDems get a far larger number of MEPs elected.

* The system is still bad as you can only vote for a party and not individual candidates. I much prefer the student union RON system where only one person gets elected if they have a majority vote. Here you vote for your first, second, etc. choices. The candidate with the least votes is eliminated and all the people who voted for them have their second choices added to the total. This continues until one candidate has a majority vote.

[ian@huth]

As this poll is being rerun on a weekly basis to see if there is any movement in voting intention could the results for previous week be incorporated into the votting options? ie Labour (22.45%, 53.67%, 99.4%)

Originally Posted by ian@huth

As this poll is being rerun on a weekly basis to see if there is any movement in voting intention could the results for previous week be incorporated into the votting options? ie Labour (22.45%, 53.67%, 99.4%)

A good idea, I'll do it now.

http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do...&obj_id=121755

This is meant to be the first 'american' style attack ad in UK politics. It is basically a unrelenting attack on blair and the fact in is not that popular anymore. Labour are now going to hit back although it will be a bit more based on what the torys did whiile they were in goverment, but it is still an nasty ad.

Will these type of ads work? Do we need them? Are you more likely or less likely to vote tory because of this ad?

One would expect a more mature approach from the Tories, silly, no discussion of the issues, this may well be counter productive for the Tories.

Originally Posted by Gogogo

One would expect a more mature approach from the Tories, silly, no discussion of the issues, this may well be counter productive for the Tories.

What? And New Labour's stock-in-trade, spin and publicity stunts, is discussion of the issues? I think you might need to remove those rose-tinted spectacles!
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The Tories' new cinema ad is available here:

mms://wms4.streamhoster.com/conservatives/cinema.wmv

(Broadband, streams with Windows Media Player).

The issues from both sides havent really been talked about correctly, I was mainly talking about the increasingly american ways of doing things in a election....

[keithwalton]

As I said in the previous thread really, my tactics are simple labour must be removed. What they have done to students is disgracefull and I will not stand for it. I do also ditest what the current gov' do to opposition areas that they know they dont stand a snow balls chance in hell of winning.

Originally Posted by keithwalton

As I said in the previous thread really, my tactics are simple labour must be removed. What they have done to students is disgracefull and I will not stand for it. I do also ditest what the current gov' do to opposition areas that they know they dont stand a snow balls chance in hell of winning.

The torys want to charge intrest rates on student loans . If you dont get a job right after UNI god knows how bad it could get

[Tezcatlipoca]

The Decapitation Strategy

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/st...459097,00.html

(snip)
Michael Howard, who is decapitation target No 1. His majority in Folkestone and Hythe is uncomfortably tight, with the Lib Dems only 5,900 votes behind. There are 9,000 Labour voters in that constituency, notes Rennard: if two in three switch to the Lib Dems, Howard is a gonner.

(snip)

But it's not just him. One intriguing prospect is a Conservative party deprived of Howard and the man who considers himself the obvious successor. David Davis is defending a meagre 1,900-margin in Haltemprice and Howden. With 7,000 Labour voters there last time, not many would have to defect to see Davis out of a job.

Incredibly, Howard's top lieutenant, Oliver Letwin, is in an even more perilous state, defending a majority of just 1,414 votes in West Dorset. It would only take a run of bad luck - and Labour willingness to vote Lib Dem - to slice off the Conservatives' collective head.

(snip)

Oh, if only it happened. I'd love it if Labour voters tactically voted Lib Dem & Howard et al lost their seats!

Howards a gonna if he loses the election. But letwin and davis will would hit the torys bad. It would cause problems for the leadership battle. Anyway torys wont be defending many seats. Hopefully labour havent put too much resouces in these seats to allow a higher lib dem vote

What happens if a party wins the election but its leader loses his seat?

Originally Posted by Damien

Howards a gonna if he loses the election. But letwin and davis will would hit the torys bad. It would cause problems for the leadership battle. Anyway torys wont be defending many seats. Hopefully labour havent put too much resouces in these seats to allow a higher lib dem vote

What happens if a party wins the election but its leader loses his seat?

Then the party has to find a new leader, and quickly!

It is highly unlikely to happen though. Let's not forget that the majorities Howard et al have were gained at a time the Tories were at low ebb. There will be a significant swing to them this time and I think we will see majorities increasing in all traditional Tory seats. Bear in mind that the Lib Dems took a lot of seats from Tories in 1997 when disaffected Tory voters went liberal because they couldn't bring themselves to vote Labour under any circumstances. I think the Lib Dems are the ones at risk of having egg on their faces this time round.