Reform UK's chronicles

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Carth

2,061 adults

That number (or very close to it) keeps cropping up . . do you think these 'polling' companies all have the same list of 'random' people?

So how many would you poll?

Spoiler: 

A sample size near 2,000 yields a tiny margin of error of ~2.16%, making it much easier to detect small shifts or close races (e.g., a 51% vs 49% split) that a 1,000-person survey (MOE ±3.1%) might miss. It hits the optimal threshold where adding more respondents costs significantly more time and money without offering much added precision

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

So how many would you poll?

Spoiler: 

A sample size near 2,000 yields a tiny margin of error of ~2.16%, making it much easier to detect small shifts or close races (e.g., a 51% vs 49% split) that a 1,000-person survey (MOE ±3.1%) might miss. It hits the optimal threshold where adding more respondents costs significantly more time and money without offering much added precision

We've had enough of experts, that nice Michael Gove told me so and he supported Brexit so he must be right.Besides, I've never been polled, nor has anyone in my family including Oscar the cat so all those polls must definitely be made up anyway. Nice work if you can get it!

[Carth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

We've had enough of experts, that nice Michael Gove told me so and he supported Brexit so he must be right.Besides, I've never been polled, nor has anyone in my family including Oscar the cat so all those polls must definitely be made up anyway. Nice work if you can get it!

Make fun mate of it mate, we certainly do . . especially when it turns out wrong

Originally Posted by Carth

2,061 adults

That number (or very close to it) keeps cropping up . . do you think these 'polling' companies all have the same list of 'random' people?

Your memory’s going, mate - you asked almost the same question last month…

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...postcount=1981

Originally Posted by Hugh

Tell me how a loaded question (every parent in the UK) tries to invalidate the established science of statistics?

The survey is a statistical representation of a representative sample, which has been proven (within a margin of error of approx. +/- 3%) to provide (a high % of the time) results which reflect the real world.

Just because you don’t understand it, doesn’t make it invalid - I don’t understand how quantum tunnelling works in the microchips in my phone/tablet/PC, but somehow the devices still work…

https://afry.com/en/insight/fascinat...ntum-tunneling

[Carth]

Nothing at all wrong with my memory, unless of course I've forgotten, but these BS poll things really annoy me . . almost as much as statistics do

If you ask the right people the right question, you're going to get the answer you (or the people paying for the poll) wanted.

Keep on calling me stupid, or ignorant, or whatever, but you won't convince me that the people 'taking part' in these polls are random strangers stopped in the street.

Originally Posted by Carth

Nothing at all wrong with my memory, unless of course I've forgotten, but these BS poll things really annoy me . . almost as much as statistics do

If you ask the right people the right question, you're going to get the answer you (or the people paying for the poll) wanted.

Keep on calling me stupid, or ignorant, or whatever, but you won't convince me that the people 'taking part' in these polls are random strangers stopped in the street.

I believe you are intelligent enough to know that your straw man argument is fallacious, and as has been discussed in previous posts in this subject, the selection of the 2000+ people selected for (especially political) polls is reflective of of the UK demographic and political landscape…

btw, it was statistically likely you were going to get annoyed by statistics…

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Carth

but you won't convince me that the people 'taking part' in these polls are random strangers stopped in the street.

They are not, because that would skew the results to the people who spend most time in the street. They are selected more randomly than that.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

They are not, because that would skew the results to the people who spend most time in the street. They are selected more randomly than that.

must be really random i'm 70 and have never been selected

[Carth]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

must be really random i'm 70 and have never been selected

Because you're not a well educated office worker in the SW1 Postcode . . . just a guess as to the location of the random folk that pollsters contact

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Carth

Because you're not a well educated office worker in the SW1 Postcode . . . just a guess as to the location of the random folk that pollsters contact

For someone who doesn't like polls you seem to know and awful lot about how they work or is it just a feeling on how they work

[Carth]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

For someone who doesn't like polls you seem to know and awful lot about how they work or is it just a feeling on how they work

As posted above, just a guess . . . give me the names, occupations and general location of the 2061 and I may have something to work with.

No information means speculation

[Dingbat]

Wouldn’t it be better for you to take your evidence of incorrect polling to the regulatory body?

https://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/

[RichardCoulter]

The last poll that I saw on one of the political programmes last Sunday showed Labour had improved and were now the leading party, Reform were second after losing support, the Conservatives had improved to become the third most popular party.

All the others remained the same, apart from the Greens who appear to have lost some support.

If this trend continues it looks like we will be back to the traditional two party contest.

I think that the previous success of the Greens and the current improvement for Labour must have been down to Labour supporters switching support back from Green to Labour following the change of leadership from Starmer to Burnham.

[Carth]

Is it incorrect? I've no idea.

It could be genuine, or it could be made up stuff

anyway, we've gone miles off topic I think, so I'm saying no more*






*until the next poll

Originally Posted by Carth

anyway, we've gone miles off topic I think, so I'm saying no more

Indeed, back to the subject please.