Israel, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran … War

[jem]

Originally Posted by Carth

Has anyone heard from Putin lately, or is he still rolling about on the floor laughing his nuts off?

edit: Am I right in thinking 20:00 EDT is the same as midnight here in the UK?

I might stay up to watch the end of a Civilisation . . or another change of mind when his bluff is called

20:00 EDT is indeed Midnight UTC where UTC is basically the same as GMT. Alas we have moved to British Summer Time now, so you’ll have to wait another hour to see the end of a civilisation - or probably not!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

Has anyone heard from Putin lately, or is he still rolling about on the floor laughing his nuts off?

Putin's a bit anxious that his other fan boy, Hungary's Viktor Orban may lose the election. Fortunately JD Vance flew out to Hungary to endorse Orban whilst criticising other countries for interfering.

Originally Posted by Carth

edit: Am I right in thinking 20:00 EDT is the same as midnight here in the UK?

I might stay up to watch the end of a Civilisation . . or another change of mind when his bluff is called

1am UK time I believe.

Will Trump Taco?

Donald Trump has walked himself into a "very, very tight corner" with his latest comments on Iran, military analyst Professor Michael Clarke says.

He tells presenter Barbara Serra that he believes Trump could try to back down from his threats against Iran that a "whole civilisation will die tonight".

But Clarke says history does not necessarily suggest a climbdown will come - pointing out that Trump pressed ahead with his military operation in Venezuela in January after building up a sizeable force.

"They tend to press the go button rather than the go home button," he adds.

Secondly, Clarke says the increased strikes across Iran today (which have targeted railway bridges and Kharg Island) might suggest that "somebody has gone early".

"Why would the Americans do that? Unless the Israelis are trying to bounce the Americans into going early, which is plausible," Clarke adds.

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-...-news-13509565

[1andrew1]

Ok, looks like he Tacod, postponed for two weeks.
https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-...-news-13509565

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Putin's a bit anxious that his other fan boy, Hungary's Viktor Orban may lose the election. Fortunately JD Vance flew out to Hungary to endorse Orban whilst criticising other countries for interfering.


1am UK time I believe.

Will Trump Taco?


https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-...-news-13509565

TACO* Tuesday…

https://wapo.st/4mhPzqk

Trump agrees to suspend attacks for ‘two weeks’ if Iran opens Strait of Hormuz

Amid threats to bomb civilian infrastructure, the president said he had received a 10-point proposal from Iran that formed a “workable basis” for continued negotiations.

Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to “wipe out a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said on social media, “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

Trump said his decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose government has been serving as mediator between the United States and Iran.

“Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement are progressing steadily,” Sharif said in a post on social media. “I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks.”

At the same time, Sharif asked Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for the same period “as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve a conclusive termination of the war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.”

In his own post, Trump said that his reasoning was “that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran.”

He said that a 10-point proposal received from Iran was a “workable basis on which to negotiate” and that two weeks would “allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated.”

Trump added, “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”

There was no immediate comment from Tehran, and it was not clear whether or how either side had altered what appeared to be mutually exclusive demands.

*thankfully

Originally Posted by Carth

Has anyone heard from Putin lately, or is he still rolling about on the floor laughing his nuts off

Hes still laughing his nuts off.
Probably a little concern in the back of his mind that Trump is so far off his rocker now he may do something (else) stupid that will affect him.

The more senile he gets, the less control Putin will have over him.

[Carth]

'sigh' the trouble with Youtube is you get really engrossed in something (Billy Connolly on this occasion) and completely forget that the end of civilisation is on the way.

Oh well, I'm sure I'll get another chance next week to see the end of the world

It also says, "Iran fully commits to not seeking possession of any nuclear weapons".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce84z6y3ke4o

https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/strai...l-19882676.htm

While both, Tehran and Washington, have agreed to facilitating the passage of shipments through Hormuz, there have been reports that Iran is charging a toll fees from the vessels.

Under the new ceasefire agreement, for next two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations, Iran's foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a statement.

According to few reports, $2 million per ship would be charged by the Iranian authorities. The Associated Press (AP) reported that Iran's Parliament approved a draft bill on April 7 that would formalise the toll. And the revenue from Hormuz toll would be used to rebuild the country after the war.

News18 reported citing Iran's Fars News Agency that Iran also proposed the toll fees clause to the US during the negotiations.

US President Donald Trump also hinted that there could be financial gains from the ceasefire. He added that Iran could start the reconstruction process and the US would help in the traffic buildup in Hormuz.

"The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the US, this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

However, there has been no official statement by any authority on the toll.

The $2 million fees per ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz seems possible but with estimates. Iran is likely to not charge a steep upfront fees.

According to a report by JP Morgan, Iran is proposing to charge 100-130 vessels per day $2 million each, which would amount to $70-90 billion per year in revenues, if approved.

The report said that even if Iran only charged $2 million each to the 2,000 to 3,000 commercial vessels currently stranded in the Gulf (estimates differ), Iran would raise $4-6 billion dollars which matches or exceeds recent annual toll revenues for the major canals such as the Panama and Suez among others.

So much winning…

A (imho) reasonable summary of the current situation by an ex-NSC Advisor, Ben Rhodes.

In the best case scenario, Trump struck a deal to reopen a Strait that was open before the pointless war he started, with [Iran] demonstrating its control over the Strait and potentially extracting fees plus sanctions relief.

Thousands of innocents—including hundreds of children—dead in Lebanon and Iran for no reason.

U.S. troops killed and wounded.

U.S. embassies and bases in the Middle East badly damaged.

U.S. standing in the world obliterated.

U.S. munitions badly depleted.

Hundreds of billions spent.

Prices up everywhere.

More global economic fallout to come.

Putin strengthened and enriched.

Just a catastrophic situation even in the best of circumstances. A profoundly shameful episode in American history no matter what happens next.”

[papa smurf]

looks like the death star had a flat battery, don't worry it's on charge for the next two weeks at which time the world will see the bigliest ............blah blah blah

[1andrew1]

Is the US really going to agree to Iran's 10 demands? Which include paying compensation to it, withdrawing US troops from the region and giving Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Of course not. Remember, Trump Always Chickens Out. There was always going to be some excuse at the last minute, not to follow through on the ludicrous, childish threats he’s been making. Now he can say he’s not doing it because Iran’s negotiating, even if there’s no way he’s going to accept Iran’s demands.

[peanut]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Is the US really going to agree to Iran's 10 demands? Which include paying compensation to it, withdrawing US troops from the region and giving Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Obviously not. He used it as an excuse. It was TACO Tuesday. Did anyone really think he’d go ahead with whatever he said / says?

Lets see how things are in 2 weeks time.

Oops didn't see your post Chris till I posted mine. Same thing anyway.

Great minds think alike

[papa smurf]

meanwhile Hegseth is playing his favourite song

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8hEtI9AI0U