Starmer’s chronicles

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I deduce from this budget that Labour simply wants to stay in power by buying the votes of people on benefits. Hence a no-growth budget.

But Labour won't keep the pensioners' vote (imo) because that cohort suffers under Labour.

But then what? Kemi gave a star performance yesterday - but then her party chairman made that disgraceful Hitler jibe (which she dismissed as "joking"). I'm seriously reconsidering my membership of the Conservative Party (that'll give some of you something on which to bite).

Who will you be changing your allegiance to then? Please don’t say the Greens!

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Sirius

if the conspiracy theory's doing the rounds are true, Rachael from accounts is building a War chest up for the budget just before the next election where they will offer everyone a bribe. I will take the bribe and still not vote for them

My prediction is that year on year, Labour will come back for more tax. This is because they can't grow the economy - and if they are to be re-elected, they need to do this now, rather than await their last year in this parliament.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I deduce from this budget that Labour simply wants to stay in power by buying the votes of people on benefits. Hence a no-growth budget.

Labour seem to be battling Reform for the benefit class. Reform win with the sound bites on immigrants stealing their jobs, can hard cash win them over instead?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Who will you be changing your allegiance to then? Please don’t say the Greens!

I don't know to whom I'll be changing allegiance. It certainly won't be any of the traditional parties.

Reform UK is not a mature party and, as events prove, some of their oddballs are coming out of the woodwork. The best of them are in Parliament and, perhaps, mayors. But that will not make a mature government that understands the need to halve optimistic projections and double projected costs when planning for power and making a manifesto.

Your allegiance point is interesting. I'm a Conservative - of the Thatcher creed. So I'll not align with Reform UK for the time being because they need to prove their abilities in the Thatcher mould. At the moment, Reform (through Farage) are falling into the trap of misjudging their economic policies as in not using the halving/doubling rule I mentioned above.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

My prediction is that year on year, Labour will come back for more tax. This is because they can't grow the economy - and if they are to be re-elected, they need to do this now, rather than await their last year in this parliament.

It's hard for any party to grow the economy when it's being held back by Brexit. There was an excellent article in The Times the other day by Brexiteer Ryan Bourne who said it was time that Brexiteers acknowledged the costs of leaving Europe against the background of a new report.

A new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper by Nicholas Bloom and co-authors reviews both macroeconomic and microeconomic data. It suggests that UK GDP per person is 6 to 8 per cent lower today than if we had remained. Business investment is down 15 per cent; employment and productivity by 3 to 4 per cent each. Those magnitudes are no minor frictional cost of new trade arrangements. They signify a strong headwind to Britain’s growth this past decade.

https://archive.ph/wdhs5
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Labour seem to be battling Reform for the benefit class. Reform win with the sound bites on immigrants stealing their jobs, can hard cash win them over instead?

Labour is doomed.. But the fickle public might well turn in hope to Reform UK simply out of frustration with the hitherto established parties. I predict that the Lib-Dems will have another "get ready for power" moment and will fail. I further predict that the Greens will get a better foothold in Parliament as a result of general frustration and the lack of real-world knowledge on the part of the youth.

Shit creek beckons.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sirius

if the conspiracy theory's doing the rounds are true, Rachael from accounts is building a War chest up for the budget just before the next election where they will offer everyone a bribe. I will take the bribe and still not vote for them

I don't think it's a conspiracy theory, it's more the normal plan for most UK governments: get the bad news out of the way early on then have the good financial news in the last couple of years.

---------- Post added at 17:14 ---------- Previous post was at 17:13 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Shit creek beckons.

We've been up it for a number of years.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Who will you be changing your allegiance to then? Please don’t say the Greens!

Allegiance? You"re sounding like the Fuhrer himself OB

Edited: Quote corrected, do not quote someone and then edit the quote into something they did not say.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's hard for any party to grow the economy when it's being held back by Brexit. There was an excellent article in The Times the other day by Brexiteer Ryan Bourne who said it was time that Brexiteers acknowledged the costs of leaving Europe against the background of a new report.

https://archive.ph/wdhs5
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34459

Our politicians have let us down. There has been no proper plan for taking the UK forward and away from the awful EU. The EU is as much a failure as Brexit. But we are saddled with our crap politicians.

Farage doesn't have enough talent to take as forward and by the time he might attain power, there will be nothing left to save after Labour and the boat people have bled us dry.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Our politicians have let us down. There has been no proper plan for taking the UK forward and away from the awful EU. The EU is as much a failure as Brexit. But we are saddled with our crap politicians.

Farage doesn't have enough talent to take as forward and by the time he might attain power, there will be nothing left to save after Labour and the boat people have bled us dry.

We're too small a country and too wedded to Western European values to do anything significantly different from what we're doing. Nigel, Zack, Ed...whoever's in power will still follow the same broad approach. Our best hope is for someone to do it more competently and move towards reducing our trade friction with Europe that's made us all 6% poorer.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's hard for any party to grow the economy when it's being held back by Brexit

FFS, Brexit has F’All to do with the choices his government has made.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Pierre

FFS, Brexit has F’All to do with the choices his government has made.

6 PMs since the Brexit vote, in 9 years. The country has been in a downward chaotic spiral since.

Maybe it isn't the politicians ( of any parties ) fault. All of them has failed to polish a t***d, as its impossible.

[Sephiroth]

The EU is also in a downward spiral given the likes of Hungary putting a spanner in the works re: Russia. France isn't far off going tits-up; Germany is suffering serious industrial decompression. There is no powerhouse there.