Russia has invaded Ukraine

Going alone without America is difficult for Europe; they've underwritten our defence for so long that it will take a while to catch up. Do we even have the arms and money to fund Ukraine for as long as it needs to get a more transatlantic President in the White House?

We ideally need Trump to change his mind again. Apparently, the House of Representatives is more supportive of Ukraine, so domestic and international pressure might tell on Trump.

Several weeks ago, Trump seemed to have finally worked out that Putin lies to him and can't be trusted. Why has he u-turned again on that? Trump's ego seems to be the most important thing to him but he lets himself get played by Putin time and time again. Maybe Putin really does have something on him.

[Carth]

Quite possibly Trump is expecting (maybe even wanting) a backlash from European leaders and the message "bugger off and leave us to it" . .

Plays nicely into his hands because nobody at home can say he pulled out, in fact Europe 'kicked' him out.

Of course Europe are then the sole defenders of Ukraine - and the free world (ha) - and where it goes from there should be a little alarming for everyone.

It *could* develop into a major escalation, with pretty boy Trump sitting waiting patiently to pick up the pieces of whatever is left of Europe & Russia when it's over.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Ukraine has to limit its armed forces size but Russia doesn't even have to guarantee it won't attack again, Russia gets most of its frozen assets back and are accepted back into the G8, security guarantees for Ukraine seem weak, in short this deal could've been written in Moscow its so one sided

Trump's 'Russia First' policy for all to see. I hope AI hasn't made any mistakes when translating it from Russian.

Follow the money…

From the Telegraph…

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...plan-analysis/

https://archive.ph/QWCB0

14. What happens to frozen Russian assets

Favours Russia, and the United States

Frozen funds will be used as follows:
$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine.

The US will receive 50 per cent of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen.

The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas.

This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict.

The most novel element of the plan – and among the most controversial. As things stand, Europe is on the verge of seizing 140 billion euros of frozen Russian assets and using them to support Ukraine for the coming years. Only Belgium of the 27 member states is a hold-out, at this stage, and it was expected to relent in the coming months.

But here, Trump puts his hand right in the pie. Much of the frozen funds, it envisions, will be spent not on Ukrainian defence but on US-led reconstruction efforts – from which Washington will profit. Given that Russia is likely to lose the funds on the current trajectory, the ability to “invest” them with the US – and presumably recoup some profit – becomes a preferable alternative.

Any European move to seize the funds will now be painted as undermining Trump’s peace plan. If this deal ends the war, Ukraine can celebrate the fact that Russian money is being spent on its reconstruction. If it does not, the provision seriously complicates Europe’s next steps in raising funds for its ally.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well at the moment, the most telling thing is Ukraine hasn’t yet rejected it. They won’t accept it, but remember Trump is a businessman, this is the initial offer in a negotiation.

Obviously unacceptable, let’s see what the counter offer is.

It’s difficult for Ukraine. They now have to work out how they can win this war without American support.

God help them if they decide to rely on us.