Reform UK's chronicles

[1andrew1]

Reform UK have won the Runcorn by-election by six votes after a recount.
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-...reens-12593360

Bad night for Labour and the Tories. The Tories must be scared witless, this is an existential threat to them now.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Reform UK have won the Runcorn by-election by six votes after a recount.
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-...reens-12593360

A reminder to people that your vote counts

---------- Post added at 08:36 ---------- Previous post was at 08:31 ----------

Huge win for reform in Lincolnshire

https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/n...-live-10148365

[Sephiroth]

It'll be the next election round that matters, imo. Will it consolidate reform?

[Mr K]

The more Reform are exposed to the electorate before the next election the better. Populists fall down when they actually have to do something. Ask the residents of Clacton...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

A reminder to people that your vote counts.

Spot on.

---------- Post added at 11:17 ---------- Previous post was at 11:16 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Bad night for Labour and the Tories. The Tories must be scared witless, this is an existential threat to them now.

Will be interesting to see if it provokes a Tory leadership challenge.

Originally Posted by Mr K

The more Reform are exposed to the electorate before the next election the better. Populists fall down when they actually have to do something. Ask the residents of Clacton...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

The more Reform are exposed to the electorate before the next election the better. Populists fall down when they actually have to do something. Ask the residents of Clacton...

That's slightly different as Clacton is Farage Five Jobs' seat.

I suspect Reform UK will lean upon its other MPs to knuckle down and deliver locally.

[Jaymoss]

This is what you get when countless governments fail to deliver anything. Jebus cripes we had Boris in power if that does not tell you something about how desperate the electorate is for change nothing will. Now we have another moron it is plain to see people are sick and tired of it

[Itshim]

Love sir keirs comment , it's all the tories fault that labour lost. Think about it.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

This is what you get when countless governments fail to deliver anything. Jebus cripes we had Boris in power if that does not tell you something about how desperate the electorate is for change nothing will. Now we have another moron it is plain to see people are sick and tired of it

Your words pretty much echo the analysis in the FT yesterday:

For a decade, the country has been consistent that things cannot go on as they are.

This week’s local elections in England will follow that trend. Even if Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party underperforms its headiest predictions, it looks set to cement its status as a major party, capable of superseding the Tories as the main opposition to Labour.

But though allies and rivals will focus on the potency of its populist nationalism, there is a danger of over-interpreting its success. One cannot dismiss the power of the immigration issue or the Tory implosion that Reform is exploiting, but there is a broader and simpler explanation for its rise. Britain is going to keep voting for change until it feels it has come and Farage is the latest beneficiary of that thirst. Reform’s momentum is less about its programme than its claim to the change mantle. That is why Farage, whose personal ratings remain highly negative, is now working to broaden his platform...

MPs on doorsteps report that, just months after backing Labour’s nebulous pledge of change, voters now see Starmer’s defining act as the cutting of pensioner winter fuel payments. To them, this was a betrayal. Not change, but Labour austerity.

The main causes of disaffection have not changed since the 2008 financial crisis: the cost of living, high immigration and public services — the NHS especially. And beneath this is a simpler sense that Britain has stopped functioning as it should, that the state has become unresponsive, that the country is getting poorer.

The UK is following the European pattern of citizens deserting the main parties for alternatives offering a more radical breach with the past.

https://www.ft.com/content/b8efadcb-...3-74b807147dcc

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Your words pretty much echo the analysis in the FT yesterday:

https://www.ft.com/content/b8efadcb-...3-74b807147dcc

I can only agree. Labours fortunes won't be helped if they go through with their plans to cut/stop payments to the sick/disabled next year.

If Reform formed a Government i'd be similarly worried about the welfare state/NHS.

[Sephiroth]

What's missing here on this thread at this time is any recognition from the Lefties that people at large are kicking Labour for their treachery and robbery. The Conservatives were collateral damage, which they desrved.

All that the Lefties want to tell us us is how awful Farage is. He's not awful - he says it like it is and a large section of the voting public agree with him particularly as they see the Labour nonsense performed before their very eyes.

My party, the Conservatives, need to develop a proper response, including a clear-out of their front bench who carry the stigma from the previous years. They need to retake the Conservative torch from Farage, and talk like Farage as well as sticking it to Labour.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

What's missing here on this thread at this time is any recognition from the Lefties that people at large are kicking Labour for their treachery and robbery. The Conservatives were collateral damage, which they desrved.

All that the Lefties want to tell us us is how awful Farage is. He's not awful - he says it like it is and a large section of the voting public agree with him particularly as they see the Labour nonsense performed before their very eyes.

My party, the Conservatives, need to develop a proper response, including a clear-out of their front bench who carry the stigma from the previous years. They need to retake the Conservative torch from Farage, and talk like Farage as well as sticking it to Labour.

I'd hardly call the Labour Party left wing, the Lib Dems are the nearest we have (in the major parties) to a left wing party these days. You are right though, at the moment Labour seem on course to piss off as many people as possible.

Labour getting rid of the winter fuel payment was a big miss. It didn't save much money, and whilst it made logical sense, it cost them far too much politically. Given the damage they got for it, they would have been better to take the hit on the triple-lock. Turn into a double-lock and remove the link to average earnings growth. A government will have to do that eventually. It would be a huge political hit, but at least it would free up substantial space in the budget they could use to do some politically popular things.

They're taking big political hits on small-ticket cuts. They need money for investment, they need money for social care and the NHS. Take a big political hit on something that will allow you to make a big decision.

As for the Tories, I don't know what to say. They've gone complete Twitter-brain. They've got little to say about people's material circumstances and instead Badenoch loves the 'culture war' issues, the social issues. She isn't going to outflank Reform on that, meanwhile, Reform has a populist economic message that outflanks both parties.

I said the other week that Labour are chasing a 1990s Thatcher voter that no longer exists, and the Tories think they're going to win by going after right-wing culture war internet bros.