Russia has invaded Ukraine

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well …….that went well.

Was that the famous "art of the deal" in action

[Pierre]

Am I wrong……but did it all start to go South because Zelenskyy refused to consider a cease fire?

That’s what I read.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Am I wrong……but did it all start to go South because Zelenskyy refused to consider a cease fire?

That’s what I read.

Yes, you're wrong (again).

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Trump can't help himself but Vance should know better. That literally was two people against one, and it wasn't in Zalenskyy's native language. Two people who can sleep soundly at night knowing that their country isn't being invaded and one person in fear of his life and his country's very existence.

Three or more people. Marje Taylor-Greene’s boyfriend was in the press pack and got a question (he works for a minor cable news network while, oddly, the Associated Press Press did not get in). He is the one asking Zelenskyy if he owns a suit and why he’s disrespecting the Oval Office by not wearing one. I was going to say “as if he doesn’t know Zelenskyy’s vow to wear simple fatigue-like clothes while he is sending soldiers to their deaths” but in fact I can well believe he was thick enough not to know.

Notwithstanding, the whole thing was choreographed. There may have been a “he signed the deal” version of that performance as well, but this was very much the “he didn’t sign the deal” version.

This, for folk who have never had to deal with a real-life narcissist themselves, is precisely what real-life narcissists do once they finally realise they can’t control you.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

So, could the EU and UK make a minerals deal with Ukraine instead? Not to pay off what they've spent assisting Ukraine, but to help Ukraine finance its long-term defence against Russia.

I believe Macron already suggested that to Zelenskyy. The risk is that such a deal would have to be backed by European military guarantees. Europe is not however ready for open confrontation with Russia and Putin is liable to test their resolve with incremental escalation against European forces in a way he simply wouldn’t against the US.

[mrmistoffelees]

Thenry, There’s a huge difference between making a threat and warning of an impending threat from a 3rd party

But, you know that already

Originally Posted by Pierre

Am I wrong……but did it all start to go South because Zelenskyy refused to consider a cease fire?

That’s what I read.

No, it went south because of the minerals deal. V1 of that deal was properly insane, but earlier this week both Ukraine and the US believed they had come up with something workable. The sticking point was whether it would be explicitly backed by the US military as a backstop. Trump believed the mere presence of American JCBs in Ukraine would deter Russia. Zelenskyy did not believe this was sufficient. The refusal of the Ukrainians to consider a ceasefire is connected to that aspect of the minerals deal. Even if the presence of US business interests was a deterrent - and it might have been, to some extent - they would not have arrived in Ukraine for some time. In the absence of a credible US security guarantee, a ceasefire is just a breather in which Putin can re-arm. At the moment, Russia has capacity to produce and procure weapons but it is losing materiel faster than it can renew it. If the fighting stops, Russia will be able to generate the mass for another go. And without US security guarantees, they would absolutely go for it.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Yes, you're wrong (again).

I don’t think I am.

---------- Post added at 20:49 ---------- Previous post was at 20:38 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

No, it went south because of the minerals deal. V1 of that deal was properly insane, but earlier this week both Ukraine and the US believed they had come up with something workable. The sticking point was whether it would be explicitly backed by the US military as a backstop. Trump believed the mere presence of American JCBs in Ukraine would deter Russia. Zelenskyy did not believe this was sufficient. The refusal of the Ukrainians to consider a ceasefire is connected to that aspect of the minerals deal. Even if the presence of US business interests was a deterrent - and it might have been, to some extent - they would not have arrived in Ukraine for some time. In the absence of a credible US security guarantee, a ceasefire is just a breather in which Putin can re-arm. At the moment, Russia has capacity to produce and procure weapons but it is losing materiel faster than it can renew it. If the fighting stops, Russia will be able to generate the mass for another go. And without US security guarantees, they would absolutely go for it.

I know.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine wants the war to end but must have security assurances along with any sort of ceasefire agreement.

So for the minerals he wanted certain assurances, as you say.

"Just ceasefire will never work," Zelenskyy said, adding that "25 times" Putin "broke his own signature," or violated his word on agreements.

Been down this road before, and I believe this is when it all kicked off with Trump saying that was Obama, Biden, Clinton………..

Then he said

” But he never broke to me," Mr. Trump said

So it would seem Trump was expecting a level of trust, not that he deserves it, that through interactions with previous administrations Zelenskyy was unwilling to give.

So, dummies out, you’re on your own.

Neither side look good in my opinion.

The UK, France and others need to try and smooth this over.

There isn't a realistic option in the immediate term other than the Americans retaining an interest in Ukraine.

Originally Posted by Pierre

I know.

So for the minerals he wanted certain assurances, as you say.

Been down this road before, and I believe this is when it all kicked off with Trump saying that was Obama, Biden, Clinton………..
(Snip)
So it would seem Trump was expecting a level of trust, not that he deserves it, that through interactions with previous administrations Zelenskyy was unwilling to give.

So, dummies out, you’re on your own.

Neither side look good in my opinion.

I’m not sure how Zelenskyy comes out of this looking ‘not good’, except in the eyes of MAGA. Literally his only way of avoiding that choreographed pile-on would have been for him to have signed over billions worth of Ukrainian assets without any guarantee of American military protection and without any of the American human shields mining companies due in-country any time soon.

The deal he was being asked to sign was bad; the way he was treated in public by the president of the US was utterly shocking. Even if Zelenskyy’s negotiating skills were lacking (and I don’t think they are), whatever failings he has are utterly swallowed by the infamous spectacle Trump, Vance, Marje’s boyfriend et al perpetrated today.

[Gavin78]

Trump is right in one way he's brought Russia to the table. What comes of that I don't know.

But you have to ask trump this, when Russia installed nukes in Cuba it was nearly WW3 then so how is it any different now.

Trump and the USA need to get a grip

I suspect Agent Krasnov is just following orders.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

The deal he was being asked to sign was bad

I haven’t seen the terms of the deal so can’t comment on how bad it was.

the way he was treated in public by the president of the US was utterly shocking.

It was a clown show.

But for arguments sake, the USA have been bankrolling this conflict (reported amounts vary, but it’s a lot). The US wants to recoup some of this expenditure and have a ceasefire so talks can begin.

And Zelenskyy says no, well I wouldn’t be happy if I was Trump….I would have dealt with it better though.

As an aside…..Zelenskyy no ceasefire ….hero. Netanyahu no ceasefire…….evil……….but I digress.

Even if Zelenskyy’s negotiating skills were lacking (and I don’t think they are), whatever failings he has are utterly swallowed by the infamous spectacle Trump, Vance, Marje’s boyfriend et al perpetrated today.

It was bad, and was avoidable from both sides, but Zelenskyy is the one with his cap in hand………borrowers rarely dictate terms to lenders and that is essentially the point.

Trump is viewing this as he views all things, a business transaction.

---------- Post added at 21:25 ---------- Previous post was at 21:21 ----------

Originally Posted by Gavin78

But you have to ask trump this, when Russia installed nukes in Cuba it was nearly WW3 then so how is it any different now.

It’s an interesting and valid point.

Why should Russia live with nato weapons trained on them from an adjacent country, when the US didn’t?

I assume that was the point you were making?

Originally Posted by Pierre

Why should Russia live with nato weapons trained on them from an adjacent country, when the US didn’t?

They already did, before 2022 (Estonia & Latvia, joined in 2004).
Since 2023 Finland has also joined in, directly due to Putins actions.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

The UK, France and others need to try and smooth this over.

There isn't a realistic option in the immediate term other than the Americans retaining an interest in Ukraine.

Europe has tried its very best here and will continue trying but it's easier to win a debate on Cable Forum than it is to change Trump's mind.

The stakeholders not mentioned here are the mining companies and the industries that use those resources. If they can pressure Trump into providing some sort of security, perhaps by funding it, then he might be persuaded to come on board.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Paul

They already did, before 2022 (Estonia & Latvia, joined in 2004).
Since 2023 Finland has also joined in, directly due to Putins actions.

But why should Russia have to accept it when the USA wouldn’t?

I didn’t bring it up, Gavin did. But it’s a valid point.