Britain outside the EU

[1andrew1]

Revealed: Brexit has reduced UK exports by £27bn, new report claims

A damning report has revealed that British exports have been hit with a £27 billion loss as a result of Brexit.

The paper by the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) has found that Boris Johnson’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) has reduced total goods exports from the UK by an estimated £27bn (or 6.4 per cent) in 2022 – due to a 13.2 per cent fall in the value of goods exported to the EU.

It comes as the government prepares to open talks in the new year for a Brexit deal reset with the EU but is being pressed to make significant compromises on allowing the European Court of Justice to have jurisdiction in the UK and allowing free movement for young people.

The CEP, based at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), uses data from more than 100,000 firms to estimate the gap between the actual value of exports under the TCA and what would have been expected had the UK remained in the EU.

It finds that 14 per cent of firms (around 16,400 firms) that had previously exported to the EU stopped doing so after the TCA came into force in January 2021.

The report claims that among firms that continued exporting to the EU, the TCA reduced the average value of EU exports by 30 per cent for the smallest fifth of firms (with six or fewer employees) and by 15 percent for the middle fifth (between 17 and 40 employees).

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...d=BingNewsSerp

Or, for a slightly more balanced piece of work that isn’t an obvious lobbying position ahead of next year’s UK-EU negotiations, here’s a piece from the House of Commons Library charting the UK’s total EU and non-EU exports, adjusted for inflation.

https://researchbriefings.files.parl...1/CBP-7851.pdf

It includes this useful cautionary note on pages 10-11:

UK goods exports to the EU have not recovered to pre-Brexit levels. Goods exports to the EU exceeded £170 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have not done so in any calendar year since and were £153 billion in 2023 (see table below).

It is worth noting that UK exports of goods to the EU were growing quite slowly
before Brexit and the pandemic, being only 9% higher in 2019 than 2010 in
real terms.

Goods exports to non-EU countries also remain below pre-Brexit levels. These
exceeded £180 billion in 2017, 2018 and 2019 but have been below £170 billion
in every calendar year since then. They were £162 billion in 2023.

Graph from page 10:



It’s quite clear that the UK’s export fortunes to the EU and elsewhere, while not moving in lockstep, generally go hand in hand. Almost as if things other than Brexit affect it all. Funny that.

[ianch99]

Useful report from the OBR on the subject: https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-eviden...t-on-uk-trade/

Comparing our recent overall trade performance with other advanced economies suggests that the UK saw a similar collapse in exports as other countries at the start of the pandemic but has since missed out on much of the recovery in global trade.d UK and aggregate advanced economy goods export volumes fell by around 20 per cent during the initial wave of the pandemic in 2020. But by the fourth quarter of 2021 total advanced economy trade volumes had rebounded to 3 per cent above their pre-pandemic levels while UK exports remain around 12 per cent below (Chart I, left panel). The UK therefore appears to have become a less trade intensive economy, with trade as a share of GDP falling 12 per cent since 2019, two and a half times more than in any other G7 country (Chart I, right panel).

As always, a case of damage limitation with no sunlit uplands.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

Or, for a slightly more balanced piece of work that isn’t an obvious lobbying position ahead of next year’s UK-EU negotiations, here’s a piece from the House of Commons Library charting the UK’s total EU and non-EU exports, adjusted for inflation.

https://researchbriefings.files.parl...1/CBP-7851.pdf

It includes this useful cautionary note on pages 10-11:



Graph from page 10:



It’s quite clear that the UK’s export fortunes to the EU and elsewhere, while not moving in lockstep, generally go hand in hand. Almost as if things other than Brexit affect it all. Funny that.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Useful report from the OBR on the subject: https://obr.uk/box/the-latest-eviden...t-on-uk-trade/



As always, a case of damage limitation with no sunlit uplands.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...&postcount=377

Pretty sure the Telegraph is just trolling it’s readers now…

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-relationship/

Poppy Coburn
It’s time to become the 51st state of the US

"The Briton... should cheerfully acquiesce in the decree of Destiny, and stand in betimes with the conquering American.” So said William Thomas Stead, the prominent Victorian newspaperman and strident reformer.

Stead looked at Britain’s colonial apotheosis with apprehension, understanding that the growth of new great powers meant “we can never again be the first”. As his countrymen grew fat and complacent on the spoils of imperial decadence, Stead saw clearly that the only avoidance of incipient decline would come by uniting our fortunes with those who had passed us in the great race.

He was not alone in believing that Britain’s future lay with the destiny of its most talented child. Anglo-Unionism attracted a wide cast of characters at the turn of the 19th century, from Lord Salisbury to Woodrow Wilson. Their motivations were not so alien to our own, fearing the trajectory of Britain without its imperial appendages, the opportunities and dangers of new communications technology, and the future of war. Too different from Europe to form any lasting alliance and too small to seriously consider autarky, “little Britain” would surely be doomed to irrelevance.

This feared future has since come to be. Governing the world is, for us, yesterday’s dream. Our territorial squabbles no longer define the course of history, but rather provide an opportunity for our leaders to provide yet more pointless concessions to foreign states.

The divergence between our two nations will only become more obvious as Britain flounders under Starmerism while America faces a rebirth under Trump’s Make America Great Again agenda. In short, we’d be lucky to be granted a deal like Trump’s (semi-) humorous offer to absorb Canada into the American Union as the 51st state.

Besides, if any Anglosphere nation should merge with the US, it should surely be Britain. Conservatives will cringe at the prospect of accession, but an equal say would improve on our current situation. “America Brain” is not a new online affliction (the committed Anglo-Unionist Arthur Balfour obviously didn’t have an X account) but rather a recognition that America is too important to ignore.

Those who would claim to be our elites hardly lack enthusiasm for this more perfect union. All that has changed is our relative status. The farce of the special relationship is kept alive more out of the good-natured humour of American diplomats than any recognition of equal alliance. Our country has been quietly placed in over the past half century, sold bit by bit to America first under the “foreign direct investment” frenzy of Thatcher and latterly the pitiful machinations of Rachel Reeves. Our physical and digital infrastructure is overwhelmingly US owned – even the farm equipment soon to be punishingly taxed under the Budget’s IHT changes is likely to have been owned and loaned by an American firm.

The steady process of economic transfer from provincial England to the American metropole has accelerated in recent years, with the US now seeing the UK as a (services) offshoring paradise akin to India. They take advantage of our perilously low wage growth to skim off the top talent in law, finance and technology.

It’s a terrible deal. We’re lucky, then, to live under the beneficent eye of Trump, a fine negotiator and a man who has done more than any president in living memory to heal the wounds left by George III. It was Trump who sought to end the attacks on our ancient English liberties through our illegitimate “hate speech” laws. We need not wholly abandon our monarchical system: Trump has proved adept at holding court at Mar-a-Lago, and unlike our own King has no shortage of quivering supplicants pledging allegiance.

Time is not on our side. As the Eurozone crumbles and American protectionism ramps up, our flimsy state will be crushed like an ant between two great elephants. To see Britain lose itself within America would surely be a tragedy of world-historic proportions. But the alternative – to sink complacently into powerlessness, spurred on by politicians who can hardly define what “nationhood” even means – doesn’t bear thinking about. The politics of self-interest is clearly beyond our miserable band of modern leaders.

Why not jump on to the America First bandwagon and throw in our lot with the winning side? If nothing else, we might get better fast food out of it.

[Russ]

I would rather shit in my hands and clap than become part of yankland

Originally Posted by Hugh

Pretty sure the Telegraph is just trolling it’s readers now…

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-relationship/

Clickbait, obvs. Once you price that in, this could have been an interesting and slightly lighthearted piece of fluff of the sort papers fill their pages with at times of year when not a lot is happening, but this is just dreary, negative dross. It’s entirely possible to make an entertaining (if ultimately futile) argument for accession based on common history, legal principles and values. It’s just a pity the Telegraph newsroom is such a dull, pessimistic, contrarian place that such a feat was apparently beyond them.

[Itshim]

So much better to be levelled down to a 4th rate , socialist, sewage infested, backwater.

Originally Posted by Itshim

So much better to be levelled down to a 4th rate , socialist, sewage infested, backwater.

With potholes, dont forget all the potholes. Our roads are becoming a joke.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Itshim

So much better to be levelled down to a 4th rate , socialist, sewage infested, backwater.

Very sad to see what's being allowed to happen to our seaside.

‘Our beaches are full of sewage, rubbish and sanitary products – Brexit is to blame’

Sewage spills considered illegal by the European Union are getting worse in Britain after Brexit, The i Paper has found.

The EU previously acted as a watchdog on water pollution that could impose fines of millions a week if rules were not being followed.

However, the regulator that replaced its role in Britain – the Office for Environmental Protection – does not have the same powers, according to experts.

The bloc has also taken steps to strengthen its wastewater laws as the UK lags behind, analysts said.

The Liberal Democrats said water regulation was “yet another casualty” of the previous Conservative government’s “botched” Brexit.

Robert Latimer, a retired fisherman from Sunderland who monitors pollution in his local area, said that significant sewage issues are being ignored since Brexit.

Mr Latimer, 80, and other residents say the spills have left beaches littered with period products, wet wipes and raw sewage.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm that proposes laws and makes sure they’re applied, threatened fines in 2019 – the year before Brexit.

But this year, the European Commission wrote to Mr Latimer to say it was closing the case because of Brexit – even though wastewater spills “remain too elevated”.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ac5af3d4&ei=20

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Very sad to see what's being allowed to happen to our seaside.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ac5af3d4&ei=20

Meanwhile, in the world of facts (as opposed to holiday season Lib Dem press releases), the UK has always been - oho! - crap at maintaining bathing water quality.

While things have vastly improved since the 1980s, by 2016 we were still comfortably below the EU average, despite, err, being in the EU and subject to its regulator. Graphs a-plenty here:

https://evonews.com/life/2017/may/24...-as-excellent/

I’m sorry Andrew but you’re going to have to try a lot harder to convince me that a supra-national body fining UK organisations and then spending the proceeds in the far-flung corners of Europe is a good thing for the UK in the round. Whatever the current failings of our environmental regime, it is, as a matter of democratic principle, a matter for UK politicians who are accountable to the UK electorate.

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Very sad to see what's being allowed to happen to our seaside.

.......period products, wet wipes and raw sewage.

True, but as the EU is demanding continued fishing rights in British waters, they must like the taste?

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Chris

Meanwhile, in the world of facts (as opposed to holiday season Lib Dem press releases), the UK has always been - oho! - crap at maintaining bathing water quality.

While things have vastly improved since the 1980s, by 2016 we were still comfortably below the EU average, despite, err, being in the EU and subject to its regulator. Graphs a-plenty here:

https://evonews.com/life/2017/may/24...-as-excellent/

I’m sorry Andrew but you’re going to have to try a lot harder to convince me that a supra-national body fining UK organisations and then spending the proceeds in the far-flung corners of Europe is a good thing for the UK in the round. Whatever the current failings of our environmental regime, it is, as a matter of democratic principle, a matter for UK politicians who are accountable to the UK electorate.

I really don't think Andrew is trying to convince you of anything, I suspect that he knows it's a lost cause Your use of the extravagant vocabulary ("supra-national body", " far-flung corners of Europe") is just distraction. The essential takeaway is that before 2016 we were legally required to maintain EU water quality standards and now with our new found "democratic freedoms", we are not longer made to enforce standards and so we don't.

The ultra-sovereign dogma trotted out when anyone raises the damage leaving the EU is amusing. Before 2016, no one cared about leaving the EU:

Only 1% of Brits cared much about the EU before the 2016 Brexit vote

Market research firm Ipsos MORI has surveyed Brits virtually every month for decades to gauge their attitudes to various political issues. And as late as December 2015, just 1% of respondents said that Europe was the most crucial issue facing the country.

These monthly surveys show that apart from vocal Euroskeptics, the UK’s relationship with the EU was far from the most important issue—or even a major one. Before 2016, it was considered significant for generally a single-digit percentage of respondents.

The con job sold to the British public was off the chart, remarkable in how so many were persuaded to vote against their best interests. Of course, we always get: "yes but ... sovereignty" wheeled out but you can't eat sovereignty or go swimming in it