The future of television

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Linear may work for you, but if the option is no longer there, what then?

Well, you use the alternative provided, of course.

Why is this concept so difficult for you all to grasp?

Why is it hard to grasp "the option" isnt going away anytime soon ?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's not a valid argument, jfman. We are in the hands of the broadcasters

jfman?

If DTT capacity is still there due to other countries' lower streaming adoption rates, the higher the likelihood of it remaining in the UK for longer too.

---------- Post added at 07:55 ---------- Previous post was at 07:52 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don’t you start!

Isn't that exactly the purpose of a forum?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

jfman?

Sorry - mistaken identity!

---------- Post added at 08:43 ---------- Previous post was at 08:35 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Perhaps because it doesn’t need grasping, because it’s not happening.

Why is it so hard for you to grasp the concept of linear TV schedules having a utility that will keep it in use for the foreseeable future?

...And I'm accused of putting forward a binary argument! You csnnot 'know' that 'linear' TV in its present form will survive and I have put forward many links that indicate otherwise. However, you and others refuse to even contemplate this and cannot even accept that the likelihood is that our programmes will be delivered only via IPTV in the future.

Very well, we'll soon see, won't we?

---------- Post added at 08:43 ---------- Previous post was at 08:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Paul

Why is it hard to grasp "the option" isnt going away anytime soon ?

Link?

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Very well, we'll soon see, won't we?

Why yes, we will. In about 4 months by your original prediction.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Why yes, we will. In about 4 months by your original prediction.

Imagine a government project that slid ten years (well, we probably don’t have to imagine ) what would your confidence level be in it not ending up 15, or 20. If it even happened at all.

Originally Posted by jfman

Imagine a government project that slid ten years (well, we probably don’t have to imagine ) what would your confidence level be in it not ending up 15, or 20. If it even happened at all.

Well, as has been discussed previously in this thread, OFCOM believe there are three options, only one of which is switching of DTT altogether.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-an...a%20disability.

Approaches to delivering universal TV in future
While we found that there is widespread support across the sector for TV services continuing to be available to all, with a strong offering from public service broadcasters, there is no shared view about how to achieve this.

A clear vision and careful planning for the long term are needed. We have set out three broad approaches. Each model has particular challenges and involves commercial or public policy trade-offs.

1. Investment in a more efficient DTT service – a more efficient, but full DTT service could be an option if audience scale and investment could be sustained over the 2030s. This option may well include supporting audiences with new equipment for more efficient broadcast signals.

2. Reducing DTT to a core service – the DTT platform could retain a minimum number of core channels – for example the main public service and news channels. This would mean viewers mainly using the internet to access TV services, while also maintaining infrastructure that could deliver radio or TV, including if there are internet outages. It could be done as a temporary transition to a fuller switch off or remain indefinitely as a provider of last resort.

3. Move towards DTT switch-off in the longer term – a planned campaign to ensure people are confident and connected with internet services, so DTT could be switched off. It would take careful planning to ensure universality of public service media, with support for people so that no-one is left behind. This could have wider benefits for digital inclusion in other areas of society.

Considering the needs of all audiences must be at the heart of any chosen approach, and our report today signals no preference for any particular option. In all cases, the broadcast and broadband industries would need to work with Government to set a common vision for how to deliver universal TV services in future, followed by detailed planning. An inclusive transition would take 8-10 years, so it is welcome that Government is considering these issues now so industry can be ready for any changes by the early 2030s.

It would be a brave Government/company that told 35% of the population that they could not continue watching TV in the manner they were accustomed to…

In recent years there has been a radical shift in people’s viewing habits. TV is increasingly being viewed online, driven by the mass take-up of broadband, a range of different devices, new platforms and ways to consume content. The average person spent 25% fewer minutes per day watching broadcast TV in 2023 than in 2018.

The trend is expected to continue, with watching on scheduled TV channels through Digital Terrestrial Television and satellite forecast to drop from 67% of total long-form TV viewing in 2022, to 35% by 2034 and 27% by 2040. Much of that remaining viewing will be done by households that rely solely on DTT, which are more likely to include people who are older, less affluent or have a disability.

But but but Ofcom refused to allow Project Kangaroo therefore they’re wrong about everything.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Chris

Why yes, we will. In about 4 months by your original prediction.

That related to the broadband situation, which you well know, and was explained at the time. The linear channels prediction always related to '20 years' time', as explained in the original post.

You must be desperate to keep repeating what you know I never meant in the context you've stated it.

---------- Post added at 07:40 ---------- Previous post was at 07:39 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Imagine a government project that slid ten years (well, we probably don’t have to imagine ) what would your confidence level be in it not ending up 15, or 20. If it even happened at all.

You are even more desperate than Chris!

---------- Post added at 07:45 ---------- Previous post was at 07:40 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Well, as has been discussed previously in this thread, OFCOM believe there are three options, only one of which is switching of DTT altogether.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-an...a%20disability.



It would be a brave Government/company that told 35% of the population that they could not continue watching TV in the manner they were accustomed to…

I don't disagree with Ofcom's assessment. Yes, these are the options. But I believe that what will actually happen is what I set out in 2015.

---------- Post added at 07:45 ---------- Previous post was at 07:45 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

But but but Ofcom refused to allow Project Kangaroo therefore they’re wrong about everything.

Are you feeling OK, Chris?

[jfman]

Set out in 2015, delayed by a decade. We are literally no closer to your vision today than we were then by that metric. Despite 10 years of “progress”.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Are you feeling OK, Chris?

This is where I think you're in danger of becoming your own worst enemy, Old Boy, by criticising Chris and not addressing the point he's making.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Set out in 2015, delayed by a decade. We are literally no closer to your vision today than we were then by that metric. Despite 10 years of “progress”.

Oh, come off it! The streamers are proliferating everywhere and the pace of change is increasing all the time.

Yes, if it pleases you, you can ignore the fact that there’s no agreement to continue broadcasting from transmitters after 2024 while ignoring all the preparations the broadcasters are making for a digital future; you can ignore the fact that Sky is planning to cease the availability of its Sky Q boxes soon and has no transponder space booked after 2024; you can ignore the fact that the audience grouping loved by advertisers is watching less and less conventional TV Channels; that those TV channels are encouraging people to go online rather than scheduled TV by making more of their originals available online before they appear on the main channels…….

And you can just carry on with your ‘la la la’ antics and complain that anyone who believes as you do must be off their rockers.

---------- Post added at 14:06 ---------- Previous post was at 13:41 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

This is where I think you're in danger of becoming your own worst enemy, Old Boy, by criticising Chris and not addressing the point he's making.

Chris is perpetuating the lie that I said linear channels would be gone by 2025. I said 2035, and both you and he know that.

2025 was the date I envisaged that most properties would be connected to broadband, although I was basing that on the government’s plans at the time.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

2025 was the date I envisaged that most properties would be connected to broadband, although I was basing that on the government’s plans at the time.

Actually, most *are* already connected ....

According to Ofcom, 97% of UK premises currently have a superfast, fibre broadband connection available to them. There are still around 750,000 premises in the UK without a superfast broadband connection. 80% of the UK can now access gigabit-capable broadband.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Chris is perpetuating the lie that I said linear channels would be gone by 2025. I said 2035, and both you and he know that.

2025 was the date I envisaged that most properties would be connected to broadband, although I was basing that on the government’s plans at the time.

Chris's comment that I quoted was about Ofcom not predictions, but in fairness, I've seen that you do address it elsewhere.

Most premises were connected to broadband back in 2015 so not too controversial to predict this would continue to be the case in 2025.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/...e.pdf?v=334808

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Chris is perpetuating the lie that I said linear channels would be gone by 2025. I said 2035, and both you and he know that.

2025 was the date I envisaged that most properties would be connected to broadband, although I was basing that on the government’s plans at the time.

Except that you obviously weren’t. Here’s that part of the thread:



https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...4#post35757394

I posted that a former president of HBO believed there was a long-term future for linear broadcast because it creates ‘water-cooler moments’ that you can only derive from a shared viewing experience. (You can’t get that from streaming, by design.)

You clearly understood what he had said, then dismissed it, and predicted things would look ‘so different’ by 2025.

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever in your post that anyone could possibly understand to mean you were making some comment about availability of broadband. Blind Freddie can see you were trying to contradict Callender’s prediction that linear broadcast would be resilient.

Face it … 10 years on (your metric, not his), you have been proven categorically wrong. Every significant linear broadcaster still exists, a ton of IP-based linear-scheduled FAST channels nobody even predicted have come into being, and there are more streamers available in the UK market which plenty, but by no means all, households subscribe to in addition to their habitual use of linear broadcast schedules.

Incidentally, Colin Callender is still working in TV production at the highest levels and his list of credits is as long as your arm. I’d still listen to his predictions of the future of his industry over yours, any day of the week.

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0130456/

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Paul

Actually, most *are* already connected ....

Exactly, so I was right about that.

---------- Post added at 16:39 ---------- Previous post was at 16:38 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Chris's comment that I quoted was about Ofcom not predictions, but in fairness, I've seen that you do address it elsewhere.

Most premises were connected to broadband back in 2015 so not too controversial to predict this would continue to be the case in 2025.
https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/...e.pdf?v=334808

Not a decent connection, and if you recall, this was cited as a reason why terrestrial and satellite broadcasts would continue.

---------- Post added at 16:55 ---------- Previous post was at 16:39 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Except that you obviously weren’t. Here’s that part of the thread:



https://www.cableforum.uk/board/show...4#post35757394

I posted that a former president of HBO believed there was a long-term future for linear broadcast because it creates ‘water-cooler moments’ that you can only derive from a shared viewing experience. (You can’t get that from streaming, by design.)

You clearly understood what he had said, then dismissed it, and predicted things would look ‘so different’ by 2025.

There is absolutely nothing whatsoever in your post that anyone could possibly understand to mean you were making some comment about availability of broadband. Blind Freddie can see you were trying to contradict Callender’s prediction that linear broadcast would be resilient.

Face it … 10 years on (your metric, not his), you have been proven categorically wrong. Every significant linear broadcaster still exists, a ton of IP-based linear-scheduled FAST channels nobody even predicted have come into being, and there are more streamers available in the UK market which plenty, but by no means all, households subscribe to in addition to their habitual use of linear broadcast schedules.

Incidentally, Colin Callender is still working in TV production at the highest levels and his list of credits is as long as your arm. I’d still listen to his predictions of the future of his industry over yours, any day of the week.

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0130456/

But you keep on reciting that same erroneous argument. You only have to look back to earlier posts of mine to see that, and also, shortly after the posts you now quote, I corrected the misapprehension you and some others were under. That was way back in 2015, and you are still prattling on with these falsehoods.

The 2025 date related to broadband rollout, which would then make switching off channels possible - that’s the reason I mentioned 2025. In other words, the landscape would look entirely different and the main barrier to a terrestrial and satellite channel switch off would be removed. You know that, and it’s on the record, so why are you deliberately confusing people and wasting their time with this nonsense?

As for that ‘water cooler moment’ you were harking on about, I think some are concentrating on the wrong issues. I know there are some advantages of retaining the channels, but if the broadcasters decide to ditch the channels regardless, that argument goes out of the window. In any case, the streamers could surely do the same - release one episode per week until the whole series of a new original appears. Some of you are just putting made up problems in the way, but heaven only knows to what end.

I am sure that Colin Callander is an excellent professional person, and that you would prefer to listen to his views, but quite honestly, I’m not preventing you from doing that. I’ve told you what I think and we will see who is right with the fullness of time.

---------- Post added at 17:00 ---------- Previous post was at 16:55 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Oh, come off it! The streamers are proliferating everywhere and the pace of change is increasing all the time.

Yes, if it pleases you, you can ignore the fact that there’s no agreement to continue broadcasting from transmitters after 2034 while ignoring all the preparations the broadcasters are making for a digital future; you can ignore the fact that Sky is planning to cease the availability of its Sky Q boxes soon and has no transponder space booked after 2034; you can ignore the fact that the audience grouping loved by advertisers is watching less and less conventional TV Channels; that those TV channels are encouraging people to go online rather than scheduled TV by making more of their originals available online before they appear on the main channels…….

With apologies for a date inaccuracy in my response to jf man, which I have corrected in bold.