The future of television

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don’t you start!

I think most people agree that things look very different now, with about half the viewing now through the streamers. Think what a difference another decade will make.

About 15%

https://news.cision.com/ericsson/r/t...emand,c2245296

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don’t you start!

I think most people agree that things look very different now, with about half the viewing now through the streamers. Think what a difference another decade will make.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/media-use-a...the-uks-media/

Published: 1 August 2024

Video streaming audiences have plateaued

Take-up of streaming video-on-demand (SVoD) services has levelled out at just over two-thirds of households. Take-up has returned to the peak it achieved in early 2022, following a period of fluctuation over the past couple of years.

The SVoD sector generated just under £4bn in subscription revenue in 2023 – up 22% year on year, driven by price rises.

https://www.ofcom.org.uk/siteassets/...k.pdf?v=371192

According to BARB, SVoD/AVoD (streamers such as Netflix, Disney+, etc.) are watched (on average) in homes 38 minutes per day, whilst Live TV is watched 108 minutes per day, recorded playback 25 minutes per day, and BVoD (Catch-up TV from Broadcasters) 20 minutes per day.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

About 15%

https://news.cision.com/ericsson/r/t...emand,c2245296

That report is from 2015!

---------- Post added at 17:37 ---------- Previous post was at 17:28 ----------

https://www.digitaltveurope.com/long...k/#close-modal

---------- Post added at 17:38 ---------- Previous post was at 17:37 ----------


[EXTRACT]
Omdia has seen two key trends that shaped cross-platform viewing time in 2022: a decline in linear viewing and the ascendance of nonlinear platforms such as online long form and social media video viewing. Despite these overarching themes, the state of play between certain markets remains resolutely different. Traditional linear TV viewing, for example, remains the dominant form of viewing in Australia and across most of Europe, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Omdia believes those markets are set to remain that way for several years.

However, in the US, UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands, linear has fallen below the 50% share threshold, with nonlinear viewing now the dominant viewing method.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That report is from 2015!

It is indeed.

The question is why would the last decade - where streaming and on demand made a modest gain of around 15% - be any different from the next decade?

“The streamers” are getting more expensive, and investing less in content, today than they did last year and the year before as shareholders demand returns. There is no longer a commitment to throw money into a bottomless pit.

The advert laden, higher cost, proposition of 2025 will be less appealing than that of 2020. New markets tend to plateau over time. That time very well could be now for “the streamers”.

It will be somewhat ironic as your posts pivot to the realisation that if your prediction is to have any potential at all it’ll be on the coat tails of Sky’s success. Despite many previous predictions of the “deep pockets” streamers blowing them out the water.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That report is from 2015!

---------- Post added at 17:37 ---------- Previous post was at 17:28 ----------

https://www.digitaltveurope.com/long...k/#close-modal

---------- Post added at 17:38 ---------- Previous post was at 17:37 ----------


[EXTRACT]
Omdia has seen two key trends that shaped cross-platform viewing time in 2022: a decline in linear viewing and the ascendance of nonlinear platforms such as online long form and social media video viewing. Despite these overarching themes, the state of play between certain markets remains resolutely different. Traditional linear TV viewing, for example, remains the dominant form of viewing in Australia and across most of Europe, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Omdia believes those markets are set to remain that way for several years.

However, in the US, UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands, linear has fallen below the 50% share threshold, with nonlinear viewing now the dominant viewing method.

But "non-linear" includes Catch-up, Recorded, & Video-sharing platforms - it’s not just streaming, which as previously evidenced, has plateaued…

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

https://www.digitaltveurope.com/long...k/#close-modal

[EXTRACT]
Omdia has seen two key trends that shaped cross-platform viewing time in 2022: a decline in linear viewing and the ascendance of nonlinear platforms such as online long form and social media video viewing. Despite these overarching themes, the state of play between certain markets remains resolutely different. Traditional linear TV viewing, for example, remains the dominant form of viewing in Australia and across most of Europe, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain. Omdia believes those markets are set to remain that way for several years.

However, in the US, UK, Sweden, and the Netherlands, linear has fallen below the 50% share threshold, with nonlinear viewing now the dominant viewing method.

I'm guessing that the higher traditional linear viewing in some Europe countries could lead those countries to advocate for DTT frequencies not being switched off anytime soon.

[OLD BOY]

You wish!

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I'm guessing that the higher traditional linear viewing in some Europe countries could lead those countries to advocate for DTT frequencies not being switched off anytime soon.

They probably will.

Contrary to often stated opinion there’s no clear alternative use case for the frequencies. If we were in the halcyon days of spectrum auctions raising £22bn (in 1999, £40bn in real terms) for the Treasury and mobile network operators (MNOs) foaming at the mouth then it’d be a slam dunk closure. It’d have been announced years ago giving end users ample time to prepare.

In reality MNOs see the lower end of the spectrum as cheap ways for them to avoid investment in rural areas by punting out 5G lite services offering barely above 4G speeds. European Governments will rightly be sceptical whether this is a worthwhile use of a limited resource.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You wish!

Not really. It's not about how one person consumes content but the supply and demand forces at play. I don't
believe the point I made had been made before in the thread.

I don't think your reply repudiates my point.

(For what it's worth, I consume most of my content by streaming.)

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not really. It's not about how one person consumes content but the supply and demand forces at play. I don't
believe the point I made had been made before in the thread.

I don't think your reply repudiates my point.

(For what it's worth, I consume most of my content by streaming.)

I wouldn’t worry too much, that’s a fairly standard OB reply whenever someone introduces a new dimension to the discussion. He’ll be back with a counter argument after a while, except the counter argument will turn out to be just ‘you wish’ somehow expanded to several paragraphs.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

I wouldn’t worry too much, that’s a fairly standard OB reply whenever someone introduces a new dimension to the discussion. He’ll be back with a counter argument after a while, except the counter argument will turn out to be just ‘you wish’ somehow expanded to several paragraphs.

Thanks for the clarification. This definitely seems more like a circular thread than a linear one.

For what it's worth, I thought a good evolution of TV from linear to streaming came with YouView. It was a smooth transition rather than the more sudden jump from a TV schedule to a variety of streaming apps.

Missed a TV programme? Just scroll back to when it started and watch it. If the rights holder or channel does not provide it on-demand or you prefer to, then you can pre-record it and still watch it from the EPG. Prefer to watch through the apps directly or go straight to your recordings? You can do both of those too.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

It is indeed.

The question is why would the last decade - where streaming and on demand made a modest gain of around 15% - be any different from the next decade?

“The streamers” are getting more expensive, and investing less in content, today than they did last year and the year before as shareholders demand returns. There is no longer a commitment to throw money into a bottomless pit.

The advert laden, higher cost, proposition of 2025 will be less appealing than that of 2020. New markets tend to plateau over time. That time very well could be now for “the streamers”.

It will be somewhat ironic as your posts pivot to the realisation that if your prediction is to have any potential at all it’ll be on the coat tails of Sky’s success. Despite many previous predictions of the “deep pockets” streamers blowing them out the water.

Because the broadcasters are moving to IPTV.

---------- Post added at 19:03 ---------- Previous post was at 19:00 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not really. It's not about how one person consumes content but the supply and demand forces at play. I don't
believe the point I made had been made before in the thread.

I don't think your reply repudiates my point.

(For what it's worth, I consume most of my content by streaming.)

It's not a valid argument, jfman. We are in the hands of the broadcasters.

---------- Post added at 19:06 ---------- Previous post was at 19:03 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Thanks for the clarification. This definitely seems more like a circular thread than a linear one.

For what it's worth, I thought a good evolution of TV from linear to streaming came with YouView. It was a smooth transition rather than the more sudden jump from a TV schedule to a variety of streaming apps.

Missed a TV programme? Just scroll back to when it started and watch it. If the rights holder or channel does not provide it on-demand or you prefer to, then you can pre-record it and still watch it from the EPG. Prefer to watch through the apps directly or go straight to your recordings? You can do both of those too.

Linear may work for you, but if the option is no longer there, what then?

Well, you use the alternative provided, of course.

Why is this concept so difficult for you all to grasp?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Because the broadcasters are moving to IPTV.

---------- Post added at 19:03 ---------- Previous post was at 19:00 ----------


It's not a valid argument, jfman. We are in the hands of the broadcasters.

The most popular broadcasters in this country have been offering their programming on demand and in apps for the entire decade 2015-2024.

In addition to content available on cable operators prior to these dates 4oD launched in 2006, BBC iPlayer in 2007, and Sky Anytime launched in 2012 on that platform.

---------- Post added at 19:17 ---------- Previous post was at 19:14 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Why is this concept so difficult for you all to grasp?

Why are our points so difficult for you to grasp. Basic economics should tell you that companies step in to fill the void if there’s revenue in it. Which there self evidently is.

Television is ironically one of the few markets out there where the collective of consumers genuinely has power to influence the market by watching or paying for something else. Or reading a book instead. This isn’t one of those fake ones Thatcher invented to siphon off the assets of this great nation into her cronies pockets.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Maggy

Sigh! Why don't/can't you two agree to disagree and move on?

Don't think they've taken your advice Maggie

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Linear may work for you, but if the option is no longer there, what then?

Well, you use the alternative provided, of course.

Why is this concept so difficult for you all to grasp?

Perhaps because it doesn’t need grasping, because it’s not happening.

Why is it so hard for you to grasp the concept of linear TV schedules having a utility that will keep it in use for the foreseeable future?