The traditional CF voting intentions thread, week 5

Originally Posted by jfman

More likely living proof Russian money is funding his campaign, as it always has.

The two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. Russian asymmetric conflict 101 - sow division. They’ll just as readily do that on the far left, where people are cheerleaders for Russia because Evil Yankees™ as on the far right where they love Putin because they wish they had his power to make people do as they’re told. On both sides, of course, they’re willing to ignore the body count.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

The two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. Russian asymmetric conflict 101 - sow division. They’ll just as readily do that on the far left, where people are cheerleaders for Russia because Evil Yankees™ as on the far right where they love Putin because they wish they had his power to make people do as they’re told. On both sides, of course, they’re willing to ignore the body count.

I'm not sure why the Russians would waste time and effort with our "far left" since Farage gets so much free airtime from our state broadcaster that the far left could only dream of.

Of course viewing the Americans as unfit to be the world's policeman as it's bombs rain down on Palestinians, Iraqis, Afghans, etc in the name of furthering democracy/security is a legitimate viewpoint wherever it lies on the political spectrum, as is the observation that it's unsurprising Iran, Russia, China, or anyone else would view it as a threat to their own and wider global security. America is perfectly capable of demonising itself. It's only white western exceptionalism that would think otherwise.

On the far left I do think they consider the bodies. The brown ones.

QED …

[Pierre]

Trying to work out which bit of Farage’s comments on Russia / Ukraine is inaccurate, haven’t found it yet.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Trying to work out which bit of Farage’s comments on Russia / Ukraine is inaccurate, haven’t found it yet.

As I’ve just noted in the Ukraine thread, one of Farage’s core skills is floating unpleasant, dog-whistle inferences which hit the right eardrums but which are plausibly deniable if there’s blowback.

Farage’s comments on provocation are obvious Putin apologetics even while he’s denying they are. He is victim-blaming and it is every bit as objectionable as claiming a woman in a short skirt is ‘asking for it’. The EU is not a military threat to anyone. The very idea is absurd. It is at best a cultural threat to a fascist bent on assimilation based on a warped presentation of history, but those are the perceptions of someone who is very far from being a normal human being. Yet Farage offers EU expansion as a provocation. NATO is not a military threat to anyone. It never has been. And the reason for its continued existence, and its growing popularity in Ukraine, is being amply proved by Russia right now.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Trying to work out which bit of Farage’s comments on Russia / Ukraine is inaccurate, haven’t found it yet.

The best bit it still to come when despite the best efforts of Sunak, Starmer and the mainstream media the Reform UK polling numbers are barely dented.

I’ll pre-empt people comparing different polling organisations and their methodologies. Similar enough polls by the same pollsters asking the same question - voting intention.

I think you’d very easily find one saying 50%+ disagree with him from the remoaner base in a direct question on the subject just because it’s him.

Originally Posted by jfman

The best bit it still to come when despite the best efforts of Sunak, Starmer and the mainstream media the Reform UK polling numbers are barely dented.

I’ll pre-empt people comparing different polling organisations and their methodologies. Similar enough polls by the same pollsters asking the same question - voting intention.

I think you’d very easily find one saying 50%+ disagree with him from the remoaner base in a direct question on the subject just because it’s him.

Just to try to stop this drifting into a copy of the Ukraine thread … more broadly what’s your view on how will Reform will do in terms of actual seats won? Estimates vary wildly, and I’m seeing some people saying they’re more likely to vote for them now the polls say it may not be a wasted vote. Some sort of feedback loop appears possible.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Chris

Just to try to stop this drifting into a copy of the Ukraine thread … more broadly what’s your view on how will Reform will do in terms of actual seats won? Estimates vary wildly, and I’m seeing some people saying they’re more likely to vote for them now the polls say it may not be a wasted vote. Some sort of feedback loop appears possible.

The Greens will get more seats than Reform.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Just to try to stop this drifting into a copy of the Ukraine thread … more broadly what’s your view on how will Reform will do in terms of actual seats won? Estimates vary wildly, and I’m seeing some people saying they’re more likely to vote for them now the polls say it may not be a wasted vote. Some sort of feedback loop appears possible.

Certainly keen not to duplicate the other thread.

I’ll have a closer look tomorrow to make some kind of educated guess but my hunch from outset is that it’s easier to tell a pollster you’ll vote reform than in an actual GE but agree on the probability of a feedback loop.

Obviously they’ll get nothing in Scotland, there’s enough tactical voting on constitutional lines but they could save the SNPs blushes in a few seats. It’s also difficult without knowing geographic distribution of course - as the Lib Dems find out every election.

---------- Post added at 22:53 ---------- Previous post was at 22:09 ----------

Originally Posted by Mr K

The Greens will get more seats than Reform.

I suspect for this to happen some kind of event would have to happen to finish Farage, and this event accepted and promoted to the extent his usually sympathetic Westminster bubble refuse him access to their microphones in the manner they do now.

Some evidence of corruption or collusion with a foreign government to undermine British democratic processes, perhaps. Being a dodgy banker probably not enough.

Originally Posted by Mr K

The Greens will get more seats than Reform.

Well I guess there are a few nut jobs around, probably not that many though.
Given their plans to increase taxes by £170+ billion, I think most will steer clear of them.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Just to try to stop this drifting into a copy of the Ukraine thread … more broadly what’s your view on how will Reform will do in terms of actual seats won? Estimates vary wildly, and I’m seeing some people saying they’re more likely to vote for them now the polls say it may not be a wasted vote. Some sort of feedback loop appears possible.

Having thought about it some more - I'm thinking somewhere less than 3 seats. The geographic distribution is so sparse and their voters are (largely) disaffected Tories who were losing anyway.

You can't rule out Farage, or just an electoral anomaly/local issue sparking itself somewhere where voters are either so peed off or think they're voting tactically but miscalculating. But in terms of wholesale, national returns I just don't think there's enough there at this point. I suspect tactical voting will come into play to 'keep them out' among supporters of the 3 main parties in England.

The SNP (2015) show what can be achieved if there is that concentration - in 2015 returning 56 seats off 4.7% of the vote. However I think Reform UK votes will be too evenly spread it's hard to see any outcome in the seats where they have most success other than a Labour win given their polling numbers.

Potentially the worst outcome of all would be Farage with a single seat, 20% of the popular vote (more than every other party bar Labour). We'd never hear the end of it, or see the back of him.

I see the Telegraph is taking it well…

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I see the Telegraph is taking it well…

Yes I saw that. Their colmnists are taking it well

The utter hardship of having to pay 20% extra on school fees too. They are going to maybe have to sacrifice a skiing holiday.That's how bad its got for a certain section of society, who weren't 'all in it together' after all!

I hope Labour do have lots of hidden tax rises for the uber rich. They can afford it. Part of making our country great again, since our kamikaze Brexit...

[denphone]

Gambling watchdog widens inquiry into bets on election date as 'many more people' being investigated.

https://news.sky.com/story/many-more...laims-13157425

Many more people than the leading Tories already identified are being investigated by the gambling regulator in relation to bets on the date of the general election, Sky News understands.

And in a major new development, the watchdog has widened its inquiries to investigate whether people with inside knowledge may have asked a third party to place a bet for them.

[jfman]

The first case (Sunak’s Parliamentary PPS) getting 4/1 or 5/1 for an event that on paper could take place any time between now and January points towards a fair bit of cash already being on it.

I know in reality you can rule out non-Thursdays and some will be naturally less likely due to holiday periods. Those are still quite short odds for it.