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Ukraine has taken more territory in 6 weeks than Russia did in as many months, and is presently destroying Russian hardware and personnel at a prodigious rate. They briefly attempted a rapid manoeuvre at the outset of their counter offensive, however as the US has denied them air power they actually can’t use much of the equipment or tactics they have been taught in Nato countries over the past several months. To draw a parallel, the US and allies air-raided Iraq for six weeks straight before invading. Ukraine rapidly realised it, too, would have to degrade Russian defences and without air power they have had to do that with stand-off weapons. These are principally US-suppled HIMARS artillery missiles, British Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and increasingly drone-spotted artillery and some of their own Soviet era air defence rockets repurposed for long range ground attack.
The modified S-200 missiles are an interesting point in their own right, as they have the range to hit targets inside Russia, and there is evidence they have been used to do that. Over the past 48 hours Ukraine have also assaulted both the Sevastopol naval base and the Kerch bridge using naval drones of their own design. The Ukrainians are using their own ingenuity to fill the capability gaps in their Nato weaponry (the gap mainly being long range strike capability). Some very clever people in Washington have been trying to deny Ukraine such ability because they feared escalation. All they have actually achieved is to prompt Ukraine to develop capabilities the US can’t control at all. Which further gives the lie to Trump’s fantasy that he could stop this by picking up the phone.
Ukraine (rightly) believes it is in an existential conflict and most East European states agree and see themselves under long-term threat, a sense that will only be heightened if any future American administration goes cool on supporting Ukraine. It has no motivation to fight for anything less than what international law says its territory is, and it is unlikely its European allies are going to stop helping it to achieve that.
I’ve had this conversation on here before, it may have well been with you Chris.
I’ll just leave this here, it may not age well.
I do not see an end to this conflict without negotiation. That’s it.
There will not be a “ total victory” for either side.
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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I’ve had this conversation on here before, it may have well been with you Chris.
I’ll just leave this here, it may not age well.
I do not see an end to this conflict without negotiation. That’s it.
There will not be a “ total victory” for either side.
I will leave this here also:
Ukraine does not have to forcefully repel every Russian soldier off its territory. It just has to make it untenable for them to remain. This is likely to occur, possibly by the end of this year but likely by the middle of next, by a combination of attrition, further enhancement of Ukraine’s war-fighting ability, and political instability within Russia itself.
There will be no negotiated end to the war, but Ukraine will restore its borders and will enter Nato; prior to it entering Nato it will benefit from substantial bilateral support from Poland, the Baltics and the UK. This will include a significant military presence from those states.
No it won’t, but I’ll listen if you explain to me how that will happen.
Russia has lost its fighting edge in the form of Wagner. Politically, it's become more isolated with Turkey and India now nailing their colours to the West. At home, there's a loss of morale with the damage inflicted on the Kerch Bridge, attacks on Russian territory and young men not returning home alive. And on the battle field, Ukraine is advancing.
And after that, entry to NATO and the EU will come.
None of the above guarantees a Ukranian military victory and we'll only know for sure in time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Trump can’t force Ukraine to do nothing. Trump never mentioned force at all.
If the two sides don't agree a deal then the temptation for Trump would be to lean on the side that he has most leverage with or look ineffective. That's Ukraine, via the US's supply of intelligence and arms.
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Re: Russia has invaded Ukraine
NB Trump is not going to be president. Even if he wins the republican nomination, are swing voters really going to select an indicted and possibly (by then) convicted criminal to be president, even if it isn’t technically against the constitution for him to rule from jail? That scenario is too absurd even for America.
NB Trump is not going to be president. Even if he wins the republican nomination, are swing voters really going to select an indicted and possibly (by then) convicted criminal to be president, even if it isn’t technically against the constitution for him to rule from jail? That scenario is too absurd even for America.
Depends on how bad Biden's deterioration is. If he has a disastrous debate performance then there is a chance, all it requires is for the Trump loyalists to turn out in the swing states and the vote being more depressed amongst Biden voters last time.
It's very unlikely Trump wins the popular vote but he only needs a few states to turn Red.
Ukrainian fencer Olha Kharlan was disqualified from the World Fencing Championships in Milan after showing "lack of respect" for her Russian opponent. At the start of the tournament, Kharlan defeated the Russian athlete Anna Smirnova and refused to shake hands after their duel.
the IOC recommends this.
Quote:
Following the disqualification of Ukrainian fencer Olha Kharlan from the World Fencing Championships, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) has expressed its solidarity with Ukrainian athletes and called on international federations to be sensitive to competitions between Ukrainian and Russian neutral athletes.
Personally all Russian athletes (and many of the pro Russian) should be banned from all sports.
This should be done a a government level so the farce of penalising Wimbledon can't happen.
I agree, they should be banned at least until this war is over. Meanwhile Kharlan has commented on it.
Quote:
"As you can see, today was a very tough and important day. What happened has brought up a lot of questions but also has provided some answers. We have found out that the country that terrorises our state, our people, and our families, is also terrorising sports.
What happened today is what had to happen. I didn’t want to shake this athlete’s hand; I followed my heart...
...Peace can’t be forced on anyone. Especially Ukrainians. Never. No handshakes. Never. That’s how it’ll always be.
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