Russia has invaded Ukraine

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I wasn't expecting a Russian withdrawal, that's good news.

It’s not a Russian withdrawal per se - this is the Wagner private military company, whose leadership is aggrieved that the regular Russian army hasn’t been keeping it adequately supplied with ammunition. The Russian leadership absolutely will not want this to happen. It may yet be that they take him seriously and start supplying him what he wants, and he won’t actually order his men out.

If he actually does it, it will be a catastrophe for the Russian position in that part of the front and it won’t earn Pregozhin any friends in Moscow. You have to wonder what his calculus is here. Is he going properly insane, or is this a prelude to some sort of attempted coup?

Originally Posted by pip08456

He has stated this will be on March 10th.

Ummmm, March 10th ?

Originally Posted by Paul

Ummmm, March 10th ?

Probably a typo/autocorrect- the article states 10th May.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Probably a typo/autocorrect- the article states 10th May.

Spot on, a typo.

[pip08456]

The Russian victory parade today. Allegedly the lone T34 was made in Karkiv, Ukraine c. 1940.

The parade in Moscow didn't have any modern tanks, infantry fighting vehicles or aviation. It was one of the smallest in Russian history, taking less than 10 minutes.

There was one T-34 tank that took part in WWII. No Iskanders, Armata tanks, aviation. The walking part of the parade mainly consisted of cadets and students of military universities, not military staff.

Russian MoD hasn't published any information about the parade's participants, unlike in previous years.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...65740258320387

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by pip08456

The Russian victory parade today. Allegedly the lone T34 was made in Karkiv, Ukraine c. 1940.



https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...65740258320387

The parade is traditionally led by a T34, so I understand.

But this parade only had 50 odd vehicles, as opposed to the hundreds of previous years.

Originally Posted by Pierre

The parade is traditionally led by a T34, so I understand.

But this parade only had 50 odd vehicles, as opposed to the hundreds of previous years.

True…

Here is a graphic of the vehicles in last year’s parade.

Number of vehicles on parade

2021: 197
2022: 131
2023: 51

Simply because the rest of their vehicles are all either blown to pieces, or in the process of bring blown to pieces, in Ukraine.

The uniformed personnel were mostly cadets or students at military universities.

And there was no fly-past because low-flying aircraft in tight formation are too vulnerable to attack, and it is now abundantly clear that partisans of one sort or another are operating more or less at will in and around Moscow.

Putin has thoroughly raped his own homeland. The Russian military has been eviscerated, and the whole world can now see it.

[1andrew1]

At that rate there will be no vehicles in 2024.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

At that rate there will be no vehicles in 2024.

Or aircraft

[Jaymoss]

Sending Long Range Missile to Ukraine is one thing. Telling everyone is another. Stupid, dangerous and paints a bigger target here. I do not like it.


https://news.sky.com/story/storm-sha...firms-12878298

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Sending Long Range Missile to Ukraine is one thing. Telling everyone is another. Stupid, dangerous and paints a bigger target here. I do not like it.


https://news.sky.com/story/storm-sha...firms-12878298

Counter-intuitively, telegraphing it in advance is likely to lessen the chances of escalation. Russia can’t be surprised when hardened military installations 150 miles behind the front line suddenly start exploding and can’t be panicked into doing anything rash.

Incidentally the very worst escalation, in the very unlikely event of it happening, would be a very small tactical nuclear weapon used somewhere in Ukraine. For all the Nato aid that’s gone there, Ukraine is not in Nato and doesn’t have article 5 protection. We do. No matter how crackpot Putin gets, there are enough people in Russia sensible enough to save their own skins who would refuse to launch an attack on any Nato member.

[Jaymoss]

Originally Posted by Chris

Counter-intuitively, telegraphing it in advance is likely to lessen the chances of escalation. Russia can’t be surprised when hardened military installations 150 miles behind the front line suddenly start exploding and can’t be panicked into doing anything rash.

Incidentally the very worst escalation, in the very unlikely event of it happening, would be a very small tactical nuclear weapon used somewhere in Ukraine. For all the Nato aid that’s gone there, Ukraine is not in Nato and doesn’t have article 5 protection. We do. No matter how crackpot Putin gets, there are enough people in Russia sensible enough to save their own skins who would refuse to launch an attack on any Nato member.

Now I do not necessarily think this will ever happen but there is a niggle in my paranoia that sees the UK used as a sacrificial lamb where Russia hits us with a nuke to prove they are will to do so and the rest of NATO back down in fear of global annihilation

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Now I do not necessarily think this will ever happen but there is a niggle in my paranoia that sees the UK used as a sacrificial lamb where Russia hits us with a nuke to prove they are will to do so and the rest of NATO back down in fear of global annihilation

If that happened, the rest of Nato couldn’t back down - it would hand Russia (and CHina) a licence to use nuclear blackmail at any time in the future. A nuclear attack would absolutely have to be answered. No two ways about it. That’s why deterrence works.

[Pierre]

Mutually assured destruction, does work. Given the choice you’ll take a bloody nose instead of death.

This is why, any potential government that would get rid of our independent nuclear deterrent cannot be entertained…..ever.