Russia has invaded Ukraine

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

In the mid-70s and early 80s, I used to monitor/track Sov TU-95 Bears and TU-22 Backfires running simulated attacks on Europe and Continental U.S. - the consensus was these were Nuke runs, not conventional…

They still do it now, doubt they’re “nuke runs”. In the 70’s if they were nuke runs then Lightnings would have knocked them out before they got anywhere close.

Response time checks

Also, 17 Squadron at RAF Bruggen (Phantoms, then Jaguars, then Tornados) carried Nuclear Bombs in the 70s, 80s, and 90s.

So, if the Brits, the Americans, and the Russians were all planning to use Aircraft to deliver "Buckets of Instant Sunshine/Unscheduled Sunrises" in the 70s, 80s, & 90s, I would posit your initial proposition is counterfactual…

My first reply, that you highlighted, that you are responding to was obviously pithy on my part.

What about the other bit?

Once we moved to submarine launched, and land based ICBMs they pretty much became obsolete, bombers may have been held in reserve. But considering that NATO is not a first strike organisation any deployment would be in response to an attack and the world would probably be an inferno before they got airborne let alone over a target.

If you are positing this

So, if the Brits, the Americans, and the Russians were all planning to use Aircraft to deliver "Buckets of Instant Sunshine/Unscheduled Sunrises" in the 70s, 80s, & 90s, I would posit your initial proposition is counterfactual…

I very much disagree. ICBMs took over and are still now the primary delivery platform of nuclear warheads.

Originally Posted by Pierre

They still do it now, doubt they’re “nuke runs”. In the 70’s if they were nuke runs then Lightnings would have knocked them out before they got anywhere close.

Response time checks



My first reply, that you highlighted, that you are responding to was obviously pithy on my part.

What about the other bit?



If you are positing this



I very much disagree. ICBMs took over and are still now the primary delivery platform of nuclear warheads.

"simulated" being the operative word…

They turned around before they entered our airspace - as you state, they were testing our response times.

You appear to be moving the goalposts from

Bombers as a delivery mechanism for nuclear warhead ended in the 60's.

to

ICBMs took over and are still now the primary delivery platform of nuclear warheads.

The Nuclear Armed aircraft in the 70s, 80s, and 90s were not "obsolete"or "in reserve", they were an active part of the Nuclear Triad/Trifecta response.

The USA and Russia still plan around the Nuclear Triad/Trifecta (Land ICBMs, Sea Ballistic Missile Subs, and Air B52Hs & B2As).

https://www.defense.gov/Multimedia/E...Nuclear-Triad/

Consisting of 46 nuclear-capable B-52H Stratofortress and 20 B-2A Spirit aircraft, the nation's bomber fleet is the most flexible leg of the triad, capable of providing massive firepower in a short time anywhere on the globe, even through the most advanced defenses.

https://tass.com/defense/1378715

"The air strategic nuclear forces have been equipped with four upgraded Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers.

[Pierre]

Fine, if Russia launch a nuclear attack against NATO using bombers and NATO respond using bombers, I’ll concede that you’re right.

Meanwhile, all this Bierkeller chat about nuclear weapons is exactly what Russian propaganda is meant to achieve. So how about we stop doing Uncle Vova’s work for him …

Originally Posted by Chris

Meanwhile, all this Bierkeller chat about nuclear weapons is exactly what Russian propaganda is meant to achieve. So how about we stop doing Uncle Vova’s work for him …

Anyway, back on topic…

https://news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject....nsify-12720522

Top secret NATO nuclear exercise to take place over UK as Russia tensions intensify

Air forces from 14 countries are set to join the "highly sensitive" training event which aims to test the ability of allies to conduct nuclear strikes - the bedrock of NATO deterrence policy.

A NATO nuclear exercise with warplanes that can drop atomic bombs will take place from next week over the United Kingdom, the North Sea and Belgium, the alliance has said.

The annual training - called Steadfast Noon - is going ahead despite escalating tensions with Russia over fears President Vladimir Putin might consider a real nuclear strike in Ukraine.

Unusually, NATO chose to highlight well in advance the fact the exercise was coming up.

This appears to have been in a bid to ensure transparency and reduce the risk of any misunderstanding about the top secret and highly sensitive exercise.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Anyway, back on topic…

https://news-sky-com.cdn.ampproject....nsify-12720522

So "Top Secret" it has been publicised.

---------- Post added at 12:59 ---------- Previous post was at 12:56 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Ukraine drops the Kerch Bridge:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63183404

A significant logistical blow to the Russian army, an absolutely massive personal blow to Putin, who made so much of the bridge’s symbolism when he personally opened it in 2018.

The Road section has completely collapsed, while the rail section has been extensively damaged by fire.

---------- Post added at 10:49 ---------- Previous post was at 10:35 ----------

A video of the explosion, apparently taken from CCTV: https://twitter.com/liveuamap/status...42KksFWco8VugA

It was absolutely massive.

---------- Post added at 11:06 ---------- Previous post was at 10:49 ----------

Update, from photos it appears one side of the dual carriageway has collapsed in two places and the other side is damaged but still standing.

A fire on the rail section was fed by burning fuel from a tanker train that was passing at the time. How the Ukrainians timed that is anyone’s guess. The rail line has not collapsed but an intense fuel fire is going to have done some serious damage to the metalwork.

... the Russian field armies in and around the port of Kherson on Ukraine’s temporarily occupied Black Sea coast are in trouble. They were struggling with resupply before the Ukrainians blew up the Kerch Bridge, twisting its twin rail lines and dropping one of its two road lanes.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...o-win-the-war/

Also

There was a tanker train adjacent to the explosion on the rail bridge, which was partly engulfed by the explosion. This caused fuel within the train to ignite and it remained burning for several hours, with fire spreading across the tankers and dripping down onto the rail bridge, melting the steel sections of the structure, including weakening of the girders. Images show burns on the concrete piers, which may also have been weakened, potentially making its reinforcement more susceptible to corrosion, Barr said. This will also need to be further examined by investigators.

https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...se-11-10-2022/

Originally Posted by pip08456

So "Top Secret" it has been publicised.

I was thinking that, it doesnt seem very "Top Secret" if everyone knows about it.

Originally Posted by pip08456

So "Top Secret" it has been publicised.

Originally Posted by Paul

I was thinking that, it doesnt seem very "Top Secret" if everyone knows about it.

Unusually, NATO chose to highlight well in advance the fact the exercise was coming up.

This appears to have been in a bid to ensure transparency and reduce the risk of any misunderstanding about the top secret and highly sensitive exercise.

[pip08456]

And your point Hugh? Do you think neither Paul or I had read that?

Not sure what your point was, as it stated they were being more open to avoid escalation - the "Top Secret" was reporting hyperbole, rather than an actual classification

[Pierre]

Unusually, NATO chose to highlight well in advance the fact the exercise was coming up.

This appears to have been in a bid to ensure transparency and reduce the risk of any misunderstanding about the top secret and highly sensitive exercise.

Not sure what your point was

Originally Posted by Pierre

But obviously, in your view, this exercise can’t be happening, because

Originally Posted by Pierre

Bombers as a delivery mechanism for nuclear warhead ended in the 60's.

[pip08456]

Cryptic message perhaps?

Serious warning just posted by Operational Command.
"We maintain informational silence in the Kherson region.

Whoever does not keep it will never eat a watermelon again in his life.

Do you want watermelons? That's why we are silent."

Watermelon is a symbol of the Kherson region.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

But obviously, in your view, this exercise can’t be happening, because

As I said in my previous post. If fixed wing aeroplanes turn out to be the preferred delivery mechanism of Armageddon, you win. I doubt it though.


We were told to move on though.