Russia has invaded Ukraine

Originally Posted by Chris

I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over the likes of Olga Skabayeva. They’re regime sycophants. There are certain voices close to the centre of power that are starting, carefully, to be critical. It’s worth following Steve Rosenberg on the twatter so you can get his daily round-up of what the Russian papers are saying. It’s always very interesting.

It's not just that though. It's how their propaganda are ramping things up rather than trying to craft a narrative that allows Putin to sell any withdrawal as a success.

This Tweet from Konstantin Kisin: https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/...26809993011205

For example is concerning

As was Putin's speech. He always seemed to be trying to test Western resolve as much as he could get away with, now he doesn't seem to care about that.

Originally Posted by Damien

It's not just that though. It's how their propaganda are ramping things up rather than trying to craft a narrative that allows Putin to sell any withdrawal as a success.

This Tweet from Konstantin Kisin: https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/...26809993011205

For example is concerning

As was Putin's speech. He always seemed to be trying to test Western resolve as much as he could get away with, now he doesn't seem to care about that.

I think you’re giving them too much credit. They just aren’t the formidable organised machine we’ve been conditioned to think they are (by their own shills, incidentally, who have been drip-feeding the narrative into Western media for years).

The sycophants in the media are following the last instructions they were given and they’re not being given anything new vis a vis strategic withdrawal because the ‘top’ is paralysed. Putin is making many decisions personally and those around him who ought to be able to attend to these issues themselves simply can’t for fear of finding themselves near an unsecured 3rd storey window.

Putin himself is not the master strategist we (again) have been conditioned to believe he is. He prevaricates in the face of big decisions and ultimately tends to stick unimaginatively to the old Soviet doctrine of ‘escalate to de-escalate’. He’s doing this because some dusty old manual once told him he should, not because he’s following some well drawn plan.

Putin cannot ‘use’ a nuclear weapon of any size because it’s not his finger on the trigger. Even if he gives such an order it has to pass through various other hands, some of which are connected to heads that still have some sense of self preservation and will be aware of exactly what threats the US and its allies have made, should things get that far.

There *is* disaffection with the regime in Moscow and sooner or later it will boil over. I think we will have to see a much greater Russian collapse in Ukraine before that happens, but I also begin to think that collapse is closer than we have allowed ourselves to believe.

(Edit) The Red Square rally is pure theatre from a desperate regime that needs (1) its own people not to turn on it and (2) the West to stop arming Ukraine because Ukraine is winning the war. Seriously, stop falling for their mind games.

[pip08456]

This is rather interesting (if true)

ChrisO
@ChrisO_wiki
With thanks to @JayinKyiv for posting it, here's a list of what newly mobilised Russian soldiers are reportedly being told to provide for themselves (they or their relatives have to buy this all of this - good luck when 300,000 others want it too). Translation follows.




Backpack 60 litre
Backpack 18 litre
Sleeping bag
Foam mat
Tactical vest
'Gorka' suit or camouflage clothing
Boots
Thermal underwear
'Verto' waterproof suit or poncho
Socks
Briefs
Penknife or multitool
Flashlight
Spare batteries
Powerbank
Chargers
Push-button phone (clean, no contacts stored)
Food set for a day
Mug, metal spoon
Miniature gas burner for cooking food
Lighter
Washing accessories
Slippers
Armoured helmet (ATLAS , OMNITEC, 6647)
Bulletproof vest or plate carrier (with plates of protection class 4-5)
Medical kit: 2 tourniquets, 2 IPP (or bandages), sterile wipes, scissors, marker, iodine, brilliant green, chlorhexidine, sodium sulphacil (eye drops), baby powder, roll-on bandage, pills (individually)
Thread, needles
Adhesive tape

[Jaymoss]

It is missing Body Bag from the list

[papa smurf]

Sounds like a bad camping trip

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Chris

Putin cannot ‘use’ a nuclear weapon of any size because it’s not his finger on the trigger. Even if he gives such an order it has to pass through various other hands, some of which are connected to heads that still have some sense of self preservation and will be aware of exactly what threats the US and its allies have made, should things get that far.

If Putin orders you to push the button and you refuse, what happens?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

If Putin orders you to push the button and you refuse, what happens?

Will they work if the button is pressed, I have my doubts the nuclear arsenal has ever been maintained to a workable standard.

Originally Posted by spiderplant

If Putin orders you to push the button and you refuse, what happens?

Mutiny ?

Originally Posted by Chris

I think you’re giving them too much credit. They just aren’t the formidable organised machine we’ve been conditioned to think they are (by their own shills, incidentally, who have been drip-feeding the narrative into Western media for years).

I am not worried about a conventional attack or even war breaking out. Just them using either nuclear weapons and/or low-level terrorism against the West. I.E Attacking our energy supplies or using a nuclear weapon against a small area of Ukraine.

If they do that how do we respond without escalating the nuclear risk? I am just hoping China and India join the West in opposition.

Putin cannot ‘use’ a nuclear weapon of any size because it’s not his finger on the trigger. Even if he gives such an order it has to pass through various other hands, some of which are connected to heads that still have some sense of self preservation and will be aware of exactly what threats the US and its allies have made, should things get that far.

Which is what we hope will happen but what of smaller nuclear weapons? Will that be opposed to enough extent to stop Putin?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Will they work if the button is pressed, I have my doubts the nuclear arsenal has ever been maintained to a workable standard.

Agreed, would probably cause more damage in Russia as outside it!

[Mad Max]

Slippers...lmfao

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

Slippers...lmfao

For after dinner to go with the smoking jacket, they'll have military standards to uphold.

Originally Posted by Damien

I am not worried about a conventional attack or even war breaking out. Just them using either nuclear weapons and/or low-level terrorism against the West. I.E Attacking our energy supplies or using a nuclear weapon against a small area of Ukraine.

If they do that how do we respond without escalating the nuclear risk? I am just hoping China and India join the West in opposition.




Which is what we hope will happen but what of smaller nuclear weapons? Will that be opposed to enough extent to stop Putin?

A small nuclear attack in Ukraine could still cause nuclear fallout on neighbouring countries, in NATO, so Putin ought to know, he orders a strike in Ukraine, he’s just attacked a NATO country, by proxy.

Originally Posted by Mick

A small nuclear attack in Ukraine could still cause nuclear fallout on neighbouring countries, in NATO, so Putin ought to know, he orders a strike in Ukraine, he’s just attacked a NATO country, by proxy.

I suspect this has been made clear to Russia, by way of explaining why any such incident would result in a massive and direct response against them by the US.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

I suspect this has been made clear to Russia, by way of explaining why any such incident would result in a massive and direct response against them by the US.

on this mornings news it was suggested that the USA have told putin it will destroy the black sea fleet if a nuke is used.