Russia has invaded Ukraine

They say that when pressed or when they're worried they look too weak. Let's see how this translates to policy or if France and Germany are still lukewarm on their support for Ukraine's wish to keep the war going rather than come to an agreement.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61829953

Ukraine War: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov fact-checked

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Maggy

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/61829953

Ukraine War: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov fact-checked

Lavrov/Putin if their lips are moving they are lying.

BREAKING: European Commission recommends Ukraine is given candidate status to join EU. - Adam Parsons, Sky News.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: European Commission recommends Ukraine is given candidate status to join EU. - Adam Parsons, Sky News.

I wonder what quid-pro-quo was given by Ukraine. For example, agreeing to a negotiated settlement with Russia (if that's possible) and ceding territory - notwithstanding Macron's utterances.

Macron's urging that a Ukrainian victory is necessary came after the French leader has faced a backlash in recent weeks for his rhetoric on the war and Russia. There were some mixed reactions to a speech he delivered Wednesday that urged negotiations between Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's minister for foreign affairs, and some U.S. lawmakers also sharply criticized Macron earlier this month for saying in an interview that Russia should not be humiliated by the end of the war.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-mus...emarks-1716571

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Damien

It's Ukraine's choice to fight.

But not a choice for the men of fighting age being held hostage while their partners and children flee.

Their concern isn't that America is funding them but they're not funding them enough.

Of course if America didn't fund them at all, the threshold for a ceasefire or peace agreement would move.

The ultimate conclusion of your argument is America should stop funding Ukraine so they're forced to surrender on Russian terms and you're trying to portray this as a position of concern.

The ultimate conclusion of my argument is there will be hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of dead and permanently displaced Ukranians who fought further (and for longer) on the basis of Western promises that likely won't be fulfilled longer term.

Something as frivolous as US gasoline prices at the mid-terms for example could result in them being leaned on to make an agreement that was absolutely achievable 70 days ago.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'portraying' concern. My concern for Ukrainians is absolute - however war is rarely a zero sum game. While it might suit some armchair generals out there to watch this play out to apply what they see to hypothetical future combat scenarios that doesn't suit me in the slightest. It's not a price to pay in Ukrainian blood.

Originally Posted by jfman

But not a choice for the men of fighting age being held hostage while their partners and children flee.

A lot clearly want to fight but that's a war for you. The same happened here in the World Wars. You've faced with a threat to your existence as a nation.

Of course if America didn't fund them at all, the threshold for a ceasefire or peace agreement would move.

Of course it would but with less favourable terms to Ukraine. Again, you want to deprive them the money need to defend themselves.

I'm not sure what you mean by 'portraying' concern. My concern for Ukrainians is absolute - however war is rarely a zero sum game. While it might suit some armchair generals out there to watch this play out to apply what they see to hypothetical future combat scenarios that doesn't suit me in the slightest. It's not a price to pay in Ukrainian blood.

You're ignoring what Ukraine wants. They want to keep fighting. They don't want to surrender their people and land to the Russians. If they want to come to terms then that's their right and if they want to keep fighting that's their right as well.

If someone invaded the UK would you want to concede parts of it so avoid deaths? It's pacifist nonsense.

Originally Posted by Damien

A lot clearly want to fight but that's a war for you. The same happened here in the World Wars. You've faced with a threat to your existence as a nation.



Of course it would but with less favourable terms to Ukraine. Again, you want to deprive them the money need to defend themselves.




You're ignoring what Ukraine wants. They want to keep fighting. They don't want to surrender their people and land to the Russians. If they want to come to terms then that's their right and if they want to keep fighting that's their right as well.

If someone invaded the UK would you want to concede parts of it so avoid deaths? It's pacifist nonsense.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Damien

A lot clearly want to fight but that's a war for you. The same happened here in the World Wars. You've faced with a threat to your existence as a nation.

Of course it would but with less favourable terms to Ukraine. Again, you want to deprive them the money need to defend themselves.




You're ignoring what Ukraine wants. They want to keep fighting. They don't want to surrender their people and land to the Russians. If they want to come to terms then that's their right and if they want to keep fighting that's their right as well.

If someone invaded the UK would you want to concede parts of it so avoid deaths? It's pacifist nonsense.

If only that emotive question could find a simple answer.

From the armchair, “we would fight them in the beaches, etc”. If you were the one being sent to the front line, leaving behind your dependent family, what would you choose to do? Preservation of life has more than one facet.

On balance, I think the UK people would elect on a majority basis to resist invasion - but unlike Ukraine, the feared event is a very long way from likely.

[Jaymoss]

The thing is the UK population on the whole would not have any fight in them so many snowflakes would need a dark room to go lie down in, so yes I would want to concede parts to avoid deaths

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

If only that emotive question could find a simple answer.

Precisely. Narrowing the scope to discussion of war to such emotive terms denies opportunity to consider reality or what a rational actor would consider a viable outcome.. The outcome of wars is rarely binary with a clear winner or loser. The political settlement afterwards needs to be sustainable to for peace to hold.

I don’t hold Damien’s optimism that many Ukrainian men would stay to fight over seek refuge with their families in Europe. Comparisons with the World Wars are simply invalid because there was simply nowhere to go.

[Taf]

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.

Is Lithuania on the verge of dragging NATO into Ukraine war? Moscow warns it will 'take actions' after alliance member blocks trains carrying goods to Russia's Kaliningrad territory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Taf

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

They'll have to send it by sea.

Originally Posted by Taf

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

Hard to see what “actions” Russia can take here. Obviously it’s not going to do anything military - even if it had the spare manpower and equipment it’s hardly going to move against a NATO member. It’s highly inconvenient for Russia but it can still access Kaliningrad by sea.

Originally Posted by Taf

Tensions are rising, but not in Ukraine.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qO1RlvTAE7k

I mooted something similar on the 9th of March…

Originally Posted by Hugh View Post

That’s Paul’s view, not necessarily NATO’s…

I think the crunch point will come if Putin tries to claim the Suwalki Corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad* (the bit of Russia on the Baltic between Poland and Lithuania) - he has mentioned this aspiration previously, and if it happened, it would cut off Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia (by land travel) from the rest of Europe.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03...alki-corridor/

The author of this recent article makes an interesting point about the Ukraine invasion, and why we shouldn’t take it for granted that this is the end-game.

* home to lots of Russian combat forces, including the Russian Baltic Fleet, advanced air defenses, and mobile nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles