Russia has invaded Ukraine

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

NATO believes Russia has lost around 40,000 soldiers in Ukraine, either killed/wounded/PoW or otherwise missing.

The Wall Street Journal reports this is based on intelligence that puts the death toll somewhere between 7 and 15k, and statistical modelling to infer the total loss of force strength based on that figure.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...inMDHzdeRZvAeD

I wonder how aware of this Putin is. Are the yes-men still telling him only what he wants to hear or is he actually out of his tiny little gourd?

If correct, and I mean if, that is a colossal number.

That’s around 50% total of the British army, and just shy of 35% of estimated number of soldiers in this offensive.

Seems high to me from my armchair.

Losses that high after 3 weeks are totally unsustainable, at that rate the whole Russian offensive could be neutralised in a further 6 weeks.

Which makes me think it’s quite an over estimate….

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Pierre

If correct, and I mean if, that is a colossal number.

That’s around 50% total of the British army, and just shy of 35% of estimated number of soldiers in this offensive.

Seems high to me from my armchair.

Losses that high after 3 weeks are totally unsustainable, at that rate the whole Russian offensive could be neutralised in a further 6 weeks.

Which makes me think it’s quite an over estimate….

I wonder how many Russian troops are here?

Bucha City Council: Ukraine's military surround the towns of Bucha, Irpin and Hostomel near Kyiv.

It means that the Russian troops north-west of Kyiv are now encircled.

Kyiv Independant.

Originally Posted by Pierre

If correct, and I mean if, that is a colossal number.

That’s around 50% total of the British army, and just shy of 35% of estimated number of soldiers in this offensive.

Seems high to me from my armchair.

Losses that high after 3 weeks are totally unsustainable, at that rate the whole Russian offensive could be neutralised in a further 6 weeks.

Which makes me think it’s quite an over estimate….

And this is precisely the problem with so much of the media commentary we are presently surrounded with. There is a received wisdom that Putin’s a strategic grand master and the Russian military is vast and fearsome. It has been extremely difficult for us to believe the evidence of our eyes in the face of this.

The reality is that the Russians have been halted almost everywhere; northwest of Kyiv a significant number of them are now surrounded by Ukrainian troops, and everywhere else they are critically low on supplies. Even in the southeast, they’re hardly winning a military victory at Mariupol. They’re simply erasing it from the map.

NATO’s latest casualty estimate is based on careful research, including signals intelligence, which means to some extent the information is coming from the Russians themselves, albeit involuntarily. They’re not simply taking as gospel whatever they hear from the Ukrainian government. If you haven’t checked out Phillips O’Brien or Mike Martin on Twatter yet, you really should. Their calm, academic analysis is based on research and experience, not a predetermined editorial line (or, indeed, a reluctance to admit they may have grossly overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian military prior to this conflict).

[Mr K]

No Kit Kats for the Russians any longer. https://www.reuters.com/business/ret...ik-2022-03-23/
This will bring them to their knees for sure.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

And this is precisely the problem with so much of the media commentary we are presently surrounded with. There is a received wisdom that Putin’s a strategic grand master and the Russian military is vast and fearsome. It has been extremely difficult for us to believe the evidence of our eyes in the face of this.

The reality is that the Russians have been halted almost everywhere; northwest of Kyiv a significant number of them are now surrounded by Ukrainian troops, and everywhere else they are critically low on supplies. Even in the southeast, they’re hardly winning a military victory at Mariupol. They’re simply erasing it from the map.

NATO’s latest casualty estimate is based on careful research, including signals intelligence, which means to some extent the information is coming from the Russians themselves, albeit involuntarily. They’re not simply taking as gospel whatever they hear from the Ukrainian government. If you haven’t checked out Phillips O’Brien or Mike Martin on Twatter yet, you really should. Their calm, academic analysis is based on research and experience, not a predetermined editorial line (or, indeed, a reluctance to admit they may have grossly overestimated the effectiveness of the Russian military prior to this conflict).

This offensive has proven that Russia is no match for NATO, like almost Iraqi standards…

But, if this goes the way as being reported in the last 48hrs, if Russia fail to take Kiev, and the other objectives, if Ukraine manage to neutralise the Russian invasion ( as I say a massive if ) I don’t know where that leaves us..globally. I don’t know where that leaves Russia. Not a Superpower. A nuclear power yes, but so is North Korea and no one takes them seriously.

If Ukraine are moving to a position to be able to neutralise the a Russian advance In finality I don’t know if I should be happy or bricking it.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

This offensive has proven that Russia is no match for NATO, like almost Iraqi standards…

But, if this goes the way as being reported in the last 48hrs, if Russia fail to take Kiev, and the other objectives, if Ukraine manage to neutralise the Russian invasion ( as I say a massive if ) I don’t know where that leaves us..globally. I don’t know where that leaves Russia. Not a Superpower. A nuclear power yes, but so is North Korea and no one takes them seriously.

If Ukraine are moving to a position to be able to neutralise the a Russian advance In finality I don’t know if I should be happy or bricking it.

Unless you're a Russian general who promised Putin Kyiv would have been taken in less than a week, I see no reason to worry, quite the opposite.

Originally Posted by Pierre

This offensive has proven that Russia is no match for NATO, like almost Iraqi standards…

But, if this goes the way as being reported in the last 48hrs, if Russia fail to take Kiev, and the other objectives, if Ukraine manage to neutralise the Russian invasion ( as I say a massive if ) I don’t know where that leaves us..globally. I don’t know where that leaves Russia. Not a Superpower. A nuclear power yes, but so is North Korea and no one takes them seriously.

If Ukraine are moving to a position to be able to neutralise the a Russian advance In finality I don’t know if I should be happy or bricking it.

I think it may just become an impasse. Russia weakened from their failed advances and economically crippled will be unable to commit a large number of forces to take Kyiv whilst Ukraine can't push Russia back out entirely.

Russia just become stuck in a war that is costing them money, men and equipment.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think it may just become an impasse. Russia weakened from their failed advances and economically crippled will be unable to commit a large number of forces to take Kyiv whilst Ukraine can't push Russia back out entirely.

Russia just become stuck in a war that is costing them money, men and equipment.

The question in that scenario is what happens to Putin and in particular, with regard to the 2024 election coming up.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Unless you're a Russian general who promised Putin Kyiv would have been taken in less than a week, I see no reason to worry, quite the opposite.

It is not just Generals who need to worry.

RUSSIA'S defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has disappeared from the spotlight as reports have emerged of Putin investigating “guilty men” within his inner circle.

Shoigu is in charge of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has overseen the operation which has resulted in more than 10,000 Russian troop deaths and untold civilian casualties.

The defence minister has not been seen in public for 12 days as outdated footage and images have recently been broadcast of him on Russian media outlets amid claims that he has “heart problems”.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20...g-twelve-days/

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by pip08456

It is not just Generals who need to worry.



https://www.thenational.scot/news/20...g-twelve-days/

To be fair, when a heart stops beating it is a problem

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

NATO believes Russia has lost around 40,000 soldiers in Ukraine, either killed/wounded/PoW or otherwise missing.

The Wall Street Journal reports this is based on intelligence that puts the death toll somewhere between 7 and 15k, and statistical modelling to infer the total loss of force strength based on that figure.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...inMDHzdeRZvAeD

I wonder how aware of this Putin is. Are the yes-men still telling him only what he wants to hear or is he actually out of his tiny little gourd?

A telling comparator is that Russia saw 15,000 troop losses during their ten years in Afghanistan.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A telling comparator is that Russia saw 15,000 troop losses during their ten years in Afghanistan.

But is that figure believable?

[papa smurf]

Ukraine 'destroys Russian landing ship' after state media revealed its location with propaganda footage: Huge fireball rises over port that had been taken by Putin's forces

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...yivs-navy.html

Kyiv Independent Journalist:

Welcome to the world where Ukraine, in which very few had faith in West, has spent a month successfully defending itself from the biggest military operation since World War II.
And now it has a very real chance of spelling the end of Russia as a world power.

BREAKING: Kremlin declares UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, “most active anti-Russian leader”. - Middle East Eye..