Russia has invaded Ukraine

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Why did they single France out?

To try and influence the election, a Putin speciality?

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Gavin78

Seems like they are taking pot shots at any country trying to push a few buttons and see who cracks first.

Basically looking for justification for war

Yeah, it's a good old 'divide and conquer' here. Russia has already had a go at Liz Truss and I wouldn't be surprised if Germany will come along very soon as they are the 'old enemy' of Russia.

France is of course a historically uneasy partner of NATO with different parts being in and out from the 50's until 2009 when they fully rejoined. France could be considered one of the more likely countries to not participate in NATO actions along with the UK which has a little recent history on withdrawing from international communities of nations.

Both being nuclear weapon states that have at least some ability to go it alone also helps.

[Pierre]

Russia will be an economic wasteland in a short time. The best way to stop the Russian war machine is to make it unaffordable.

Many (most of the big ones) shipping lines are now refusing to take or receive containers to Russian ports, which is effectively a "Blockade" by any standard. Pretty much all Western businesses with interests in Russia are either suspending, divesting or shutting them down. Their banks have been frozen out of the SWIFT system.

People can't get cash out of ATMs, the banks are running out of dollars as people try to offload the ruble.

This could go one of many ways, but it either pushes the country to the verge of revolution, or deposing Putin in another way or it backs him further into a corner, further pressure on an unhinged mind that dreams of empire but sees defeat and that could be very dangerous, for everyone.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Russia will be an economic wasteland in a short time. The best way to stop the Russian war machine is to make it unaffordable.

Many (most of the big ones) shipping lines are now refusing to take or receive containers to Russian ports, which is effectively a "Blockade" by any standard. Pretty much all Western businesses with interests in Russia are either suspending, divesting or shutting them down. Their banks have been frozen out of the SWIFT system.

People can't get cash out of ATMs, the banks are running out of dollars as people try to offload the ruble.

This could go one of many ways, but it either pushes the country to the verge of revolution, or deposing Putin in another way or it backs him further into a corner, further pressure on an unhinged mind that dreams of empire but sees defeat and that could be very dangerous, for everyone.

I hope it goes this way but Russia's key exports of oil and gas continue. Globally, the wealthy UAE, plus China and India, amongst others, will continue to trade with and supply Russia.

[Carth]

If someone said to me "you have no idea what's coming." I'd view that as a threat.

Won't be the first 'soundbite' to bite someone in the arse.

Maybe Biden is pushing the buttons that Putin has placed in front of him.
I've always thought the US were better at bravado and chest thumping than common sense

Latest UK Intel:

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Carth

If someone said to me "you have no idea what's coming." I'd view that as a threat.

Won't be the first 'soundbite' to bite someone in the arse.

Maybe Biden is pushing the buttons that Putin has placed in front of him.
I've always thought the US were better at bravado and chest thumping than common sense

Would you rather tell them what's coming? seems a rather silly thing to do ?

Or, perhaps he should have said nothing at all?

Or, perhaps, you're having a go at Biden/US for the sake of having a go?

Originally Posted by Carth

If someone said to me "you have no idea what's coming." I'd view that as a threat.

Won't be the first 'soundbite' to bite someone in the arse.

Maybe Biden is pushing the buttons that Putin has placed in front of him.
I've always thought the US were better at bravado and chest thumping than common sense

Pretty sure it was meant as a threat.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Pretty sure it was meant as a threat.

Be interested to see how much further they can ratchet up.

At some point NATO/The west are going to face an agonising decision, namely do we get involved in a military conflict with Russia? Or, do we abandon Ukraine to the Russians..

Whilst something is clearly off with the Russian approach, ultimately, with enough resources/time they will take Ukraine. We can give the Ukranians weapons & humanitarian aid all we want but if there is not a reasonably trained force to be able to deploy them.....

[1andrew1]

No surprise - Chelsea is put up for sale.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1498971925753868288

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

No surprise - Chelsea is put up for sale.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1498971925753868288

He's apparently terrified of being sanctioned, not half as terrified as the Ukranian citizens are I'd wager.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Be interested to see how much further they can ratchet up.

At some point NATO/The west are going to face an agonising decision, namely do we get involved in a military conflict with Russia? Or, do we abandon Ukraine to the Russians..

Whilst something is clearly off with the Russian approach, ultimately, with enough resources/time they will take Ukraine. We can give the Ukranians weapons & humanitarian aid all we want but if there is not a reasonably trained force to be able to deploy them.....

I think (not based on evidence) that the neighbouring Slavic Countries may take a more "active" role if it gets worse for Ukraine - they all remember what it was like being part of the Soviet Hegemony as satellite/subjugated States.

The challenge will be if those Slavic States which are NATO members are attacked in turn by the Russians, they can then invoke the NATO Treaty which states it will help defend any member of NATO which is attacked.

Flip-side is that if they don’t do anything, they are probably pretty sure they’ll be next, so just Putin the problem off won’t solve anything medium to long term.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think (not based on evidence) that the neighbouring Slavic Countries May take a more "active" role if it gets worse for Ukraine - they all remember what it was like being part of the Soviet Hegemony as satellite/subjugated States.

The challenge will be if those Slavic States which are NATO members are attacked in turn by the Russians, they can then invoke the NATO Treaty which states it will help defend any member of NATO which is attacked.

Flip-side is that if they don’t do anything, they are probably pretty sure they’ll be next, so just Putin the problem off won’t solve anything medium to long term.

Not sure if pun intended but have a like

For sure, it's a race between the non military action from UK/EU/US/ROW to see if they can force a withdrawal or force a regime change before Putin takes Ukraine & focuses attentions elsewhere.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Not sure if pun intended but have a like

For sure, it's a race between the non military action from UK/EU/US/ROW to see if they can force a withdrawal or force a regime change before Putin takes Ukraine & focuses attentions elsewhere.

Intended…

Here’s a good (imho) thread on perhaps why it’s not going so well for the Russian ground forces (most of whom are inexperienced conscripts) in Ukraine (written by a Ukrainian living in Australia).

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...512765953.html

Some thoughts on the scenes we're seeing on social media of armed Russians, confronted by unarmed, protesting Ukrainians, being pushed back.

Again, these are just insights from someone watching from afar, who just happens to know Ukrainians and Russians and Soviet mythology.

In the lead-up to this invasion of Ukraine, Russian state media was wall-to-wall all about how the Russian forces were going to be welcomed by ordinary Ukrainians. Like when the Soviets liberated European nations from the Nazis, freed concentration camps.

Genuinely, I think, many of these young, unhardened Russian soldiers expected a heroes' welcome from ordinary Ukrainians who were being oppressed by an evil government. Instead, they are finding ordinary Ukrainians who are responding to them like they are the bad guys. Now, if you think Americans glorify their military - folks, you ain't seen nothing yet. The Soviet troops who fought the Nazis in WW2 are absolutely deified in Russia. These kids in uniforms thought they were going to be welcomed by similar scenes.

This is super confusing for the soldiers. They believed they were the good guys, coming to liberate oppressed Ukrainians from their Nazi overlords. They believed the Kremlin, which said they'd be welcomed, thanked. Instead, they are being berated as "оккупанты" - occupiers. And all of this is very confusing. To shoot someone, to kill them - it can't be that easy. In war, the other side is usually demonised as the enemy, as different, as other, as evil. That makes it easier to kill them. But Ukrainians aren't others for Russians.

Particularly in the areas we're seeing these images coming out of, these Ukrainians speak Russian. They look Russian. The streets look like home. The shops look like home. Probably, some of these Russian forces have family in Ukraine. They've holidayed in Odessa, they’ve swum in the Black Sea. How do you shoot someone point-blank, who is unarmed, who is looking you in the eyes and telling you "Go home" and "What are you doing here?" That's suddenly a very difficult question for the Russian troops to answer.

I wrote in my previous long thread that Putin miscalculated. As a result of that, the propaganda arm of the Russian state has been feeding Russians the wrong messaging. They have been telling Russians they are the defenders of Ukrainians. Now, these troops' eyes and ears are showing them that's a lie. So how do you get infantry - key to wars that are waged in heavily populated and built up areas like these modern metropolises of Kyiv and Kharkiv - to shoot people they've been told they're there to defend?

The Kremlin's other propaganda message was that Ukraine posed an existential threat to Russia. That they needed to create a buffer between NATO (a proxy for the US) and the EU. But there's a problem with this line of messaging: Russian exceptionalism. Russian exceptionalism was at its height after WW2. It took a big hit when the USSR collapsed. Putin's whole schtick, his selling point to Russians is that he has Made Russia Great Again. So how do you sell to MRGA Russians that their tiny neighbor is a real threat to them? It's like trying to convince Americans that Canada is going to attack. Or Australians that New Zealand is about to take over.

Hence the need to make Ukraine a proxy for the US and NATO. That argument is more powerful, it rings a little truer. And it no doubt helps fighter pilots drop cluster bombs on Kharkiv.

But so far, this war hasn't been fought so much from a distance. It's being fought face to face. And it's hard to remember that the Ukrainian granny, who looks just like your Russian granny, with a kerchief around her head and tears in her eyes, is some Western proxy.

It's hard to shoot babushka in cold blood.

[Blackshep]

Ukraine has planned for what comes after possible defeat I'm not going to go into any detail but if Russia thinks the fighting ends if they achieve their goals they are in for an even bigger shock then they have had already. What's becoming very evident is that the Russian military is not this unstoppable efficient steamroller they have many issue's from equipment, training, organisation and logistics all are currently being demonstrated and compounded.

This has done huge damage to Putin it's continuing to do damage and sanctions haven't fully hit yet so his problem's are mounting and while he couldn't care less what ordinary Russian's say or do (that illusion he spent time and effort creating) he does care what his rich cronies say. To say the situation in both Ukraine and Russia is fluid is understating it but there's a lot going on that isn't making it to media or public briefings that will have a great impact on events. Even if Russia succeeds today and declares victory the damage is done confidence in Putin has been very seriously dented in the Russian people, the wealthy cronies and more importantly the Russian military.