Coronavirus

[jfman]

Morocco has banned direct flights from the UK.

[Blackshep]

I'm just waiting for the next "accidental virus" to come out of China likely before covid has finished.

Originally Posted by jfman

Another OB post for the history books.

Yes, he was right.

If not enough people get vaccinated, it is more likely restrictions will be reintroduced in England, the health secretary has said.

Sajid Javid said he did not believe the current pressures on the NHS were unsustainable.

He added that the government would not be bringing in its Plan B measures, which include mandatory face coverings and working from home, "at this point".

But he warned cases could rise to 100,000 a day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58985617

---------- Post added at 19:04 ---------- Previous post was at 19:02 ----------

At 100,000 a day you would think we are running out of people to get infected.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Morocco has banned direct flights from the UK.

Devastated

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

Morocco has banned direct flights from the UK.

I'm off to the Canary Islands next month for a week and am really hoping that Spain doesn't follow Morocco's lead or add some onerous conditions for tourists from the UK.

Friends in Belgium have decided against visiting due to what they perceive as a bad Covid situation here.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Friends in Belgium have decided against visiting due to what they perceive as a bad Covid situation here.

Thats what happens when you listen to the parnoid, & antisocial media.

People are not actually dying in the streets, or being carted off to hospital in droves.
The reality is that life is pretty normal in every place Ive been in the last few months.
In the entire time since March 2000 I still [personally] only know of a handful of cases.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Paul

Thats what happens when you listen to the parnoid, & antisocial media.

People are not actually dying in the streets, or being carted off to hospital in droves.
The reality is that life is pretty normal in every place Ive been in the last few months.
In the entire time since March 2000 I still [personally] only know of a handful of cases.

Same . . . and it's a very small hand.
Last one was a chap booked to do some work in the garden . . delayed 10 days due to testing positive. When he did turn up, he said he felt no different, had no symptoms etc, but had to isolate due to testing positive. Cost him 9 days lost work . . in gardens.

[Sephiroth]

The Javid briefing was a load of waffle, wasn't it? He didn't say "yes", he didn't say "no", he didn't say "stop" he didn't say "go". What a waste of time. All blather.

Well with a husband with lung cancer I intend wearing a mask and following all safety measures for the foreseeable future. Hopefully we will avoid Covid and possibly all the other nasty seasonal infections.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Paul

Yes, he was right.

While rare, I doubt “However, the NHS is not in danger of going under” will age well.

The statement today essentially conceded measures will be needed in the future. Which begs the question of why not take lesser actions sooner, for a shorter period. Rather than having to resort to stronger actions later.

At 100,000 a day you would think we are running out of people to get infected.

Almost everyone I hear of testing positive has been vaccinated. With infection induced immunity not guaranteed to persist (evidenced in Iran and Brazil) and vaccine induced immunity waning (Israel) the importance of keeping case numbers down and rolling out boosters for all - not just over 50s - has never been stronger. Otherwise we will just meander from wave to wave hoping for the best.

---------- Post added at 20:32 ---------- Previous post was at 20:28 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The Javid briefing was a load of waffle, wasn't it? He didn't say "yes", he didn't say "no", he didn't say "stop" he didn't say "go". What a waste of time. All blather.

A spineless Government that deceived the electorate with a promise of freedom day now scared to roll back until it’s too late. Hoping for the best has never been a mitigation strategy. However with the Government listening to the same behavioural scientists, and clowns like Jenny Harries are getting promoted, do we expect anything less than the groupthink of British exceptionalism?

[Mad Max]

Surely with all these people getting the virus will it not make them more immune after getting it, I've heard of a very few getting it twice but it does seem to be pretty rare.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Carth

Same . . . and it's a very small hand.

Jeremy Beadle's perhaps. We suffered quite badly, three died and another was on a ventilator for months, not good for a small to medium sized company

Originally Posted by Maggy

Well with a husband with lung cancer I intend wearing a mask and following all safety measures for the foreseeable future. Hopefully we will avoid Covid and possibly all the other nasty seasonal infections.

Same, other half has blood cancer, I was distancing from her before lockdown began.

---------- Post added at 20:49 ---------- Previous post was at 20:49 ----------

Originally Posted by Blackshep

I'm just waiting for the next "accidental virus" to come out of China likely before covid has finished.

They all come out of China, always have

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

Surely with all these people getting the virus will it not make them more immune after getting it, I've heard of a very few getting it twice but it does seem to be pretty rare.

Sadly, such immunity - like vaccinations - wanes over time.

[nffc]

Originally Posted by jfman

While rare, I doubt “However, the NHS is not in danger of going under” will age well.

The statement today essentially conceded measures will be needed in the future. Which begs the question of why not take lesser actions sooner, for a shorter period. Rather than having to resort to stronger actions later.

Because no-one has a crystal ball. At this point the level of hospitalisations are manageable, the NHS isn't presently in danger of going under.



Whether this will continue to be stable over the coming months or if it will spike again like it did previously, neither the NHS bosses (who will only consider their own situation) nor the politicians, CMOs, Vallance etc advising them (who do have a wider context) know.


Don't forget there are other impacts of restrictions which don't consider the benefits if any to the NHS. So if we close or impact trade on businesses most of whom have been planning for Christmas especially in hospitality would lose out again, the impact of this no longer has the furlough scheme, or any rates holidays, which simply still have to be paid for, and also from other activities which have been unable to take place such as performing arts with socially distanced performers or audiences (in the latter, this impacts on the capacity hence numbers of tickets they can sell) who are only just getting back on their feet, all of this would need careful consideration to halt again, and off the basis of "we think more people might go to hospital" isn't perhaps sufficient yet.



It'd be equally foolish for them to introduce restrictions now when there's no clear evidence of a worsening in hospitalisations, or to not do so if this does happen, it's not known where this will end up yet. But, if it continues to predominate in children, and there continues not to be spill over into vaccinated adults resulting in hospitalisation, then there shouldn't be concern over those refusing jabs, since they have had their chance, and rolling out boosters to more people will probably help keep it at bay for a while longer until it's stopped spreading in kids because they've either been jabbed or had it.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Sadly, such immunity - like vaccinations - wanes over time.

It's not simple to measure though, mainly because the memory effect of the immune system will mean that a decline in antibody levels (which most studies are looking at) matters less. If the immune system can still recognise the virus and make antibodies, then it doesn't matter if there are no antibodies at the time, you will still manage to fight it. The thing with a lot of viruses (this may be the same but you see it with flu as well) is that as the virus mutates the recognition of the T-cell and antibody response is evaded to the point it no longer recognises the virus to respond pre-emptively to exposure, so you get ill as it can't respond before it attacks cells.


This will be why the immune system can't respond as well if you're exposed to the virus when vaccinated, though antibody levels and some recognition will give it a head start, because the spike proteins already mutated slightly, and natural infection will mean your immune system recognises more of the virus. It's like trying to do an ID check with just a picture of someone's eye not their whole face.

Originally Posted by Paul

Thats what happens when you listen to the parnoid, & antisocial media.

People are not actually dying in the streets, or being carted off to hospital in droves.
The reality is that life is pretty normal in every place Ive been in the last few months.
In the entire time since March 2000 I still [personally] only know of a handful of cases.

Most of it is concentrated in school age kids and the hotspot in the SW around Bristol which appears to be where most of the false negative PCR results came from. Once those are ironed out, the latter no doubt is easier, it will appear more normal again. Hospitalisations have barely wavered from the current magnitude since the last month or two.



Round where we are most of the areas have been relatively static in terms of positive tests for some time now, I think most Notts councils are about 60-90 positives a day.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nffc

Because no-one has a crystal ball. At this point the level of hospitalisations are manageable, the NHS isn't presently in danger of going under.

I’m not going to extensively engage in your misinformation exercise, I’ll leave that to Hugh, however we absolutely know that without some kind of intervention cases will continue to rise.

Many have gone before you denying the inevitable rise of the virus and been proven incorrect time and again.

As I say restrictions are inevitable - Javid acknowledges this reading between the lines - the only question is where and when. The most effective time is absolutely now.

The economic impact is a red herring. When even a small proportion of people - the clinically vulnerable, their families spend less up to large proportions - those who can work from home continue to do so all winter against a backdrop of rising cases many businesses will be adversely affected in any case. They will just do so without Government support.

Hospitalisations rising isn’t speculation. It’s inevitable without intervention.