04-06-2021, 09:12
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#5581
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,223
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Re: Coronavirus
https://assets.publishing.service.go...iant_DELTA.pdf
Notably it was published last night and not 22 February as the news article you linked to. The news article predates the emergence of variant delta.
It confirms a reduction in vaccine efficacy which is being denied and highlights particular concern around the Oxford vaccine.
There is more confidence after two doses.
It's very red as far as risk registers go. It would be very challenging for a following the science Conservative Government to ignore.
Last edited by jfman; 04-06-2021 at 09:35.
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04-06-2021, 09:53
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#5582
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Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Lionsgate+, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount +,
Posts: 14,568
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
We can only wait and see. From my comprehensive list produced earlier you’re track record isn’t exactly solid.
I want out of this situation as much as the next person so please refrain from personalising it. However, I’m completely realistic that there are no short cuts.
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I have always advocated protecting the vulnerable and allowing the virus to pass through the healthy population. As for the observation that there would not be a need for a second lockdown, that was before we knew that the new Kent variant was far more transmissable.
On your second point, it was only a few posts ago when you said you were 'looking forward' to restrictions being extended beyond 21 June. This despite the continuing hardship that would impose on those struggling to survive under these conditions, so I don't believe that you want this disruption to end at all.
As for personalising this argument, you've got a nerve saying that, given your previous posts! Anyhow, if you want to call a truce to hostilities, I am all for that. Let's just keep to the argument. It is possible to agree to disagree.
---------- Post added at 08:53 ---------- Previous post was at 08:50 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
And death…
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...And the current average daily tally stands at.....
Covid is no longer the biggest killer in the UK.
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Forumbox.co.uk
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04-06-2021, 09:55
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#5583
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,223
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
I have always advocated protecting the vulnerable and allowing the virus to pass through the healthy population. As for the observation that there would not be a need for a second lockdown, that was before we knew that the new Kent variant was far more transmissable.
On your second point, it was only a few posts ago when you said you were 'looking forward' to restrictions being extended beyond 21 June. This despite the continuing hardship that would impose on those struggling to survive under these conditions, so I don't believe that you want this disruption to end at all.
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Of course I look forward to the Government making a decision that effectively manages the pandemic as opposed to pandering to Great Barrington Declaration types. That provides the best outcome in both economic and health terms by avoiding a further total lockdown.
It’ll also allow this thread to move forward to consider future management of the pandemic when some finally accept June 22 isn’t happening.
Quote:
As for personalising this argument, you've got a nerve saying that, given your previous posts! Anyhow, if you want to call a truce to hostilities, I am all for that. Let's just keep to the argument. It is possible to agree to disagree.
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I don’t view this as hostile, but claiming I’m judging my analysis based on personal preference just isn’t true.
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04-06-2021, 10:17
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#5584
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Simples
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: RG41
Services: 1 Gbps; Hub 4 MM; ASUS RT-AX88U; Ultimate VOLT. BT Infinity2; Devolo 1200AV
Posts: 11,955
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
We can only wait and see. From my comprehensive list produced earlier you’re track record isn’t exactly solid.
I want out of this situation as much as the next person so please refrain from personalising it. However, I’m completely realistic that there are no short cuts.
---------- Post added at 06:07 ---------- Previous post was at 06:04 ----------
Or “hospitalisation” as OB once described it.
---------- Post added at 06:13 ---------- Previous post was at 06:07 ----------
“Scarce evidence”. I direct you to Public Health England’s risk register on the Delta variant.
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Personalising? Hoist/petard!
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Seph.
My advice is at your risk.
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04-06-2021, 11:05
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#5585
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 11,985
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
https://assets.publishing.service.go...iant_DELTA.pdf
Notably it was published last night and not 22 February as the news article you linked to. The news article predates the emergence of variant delta.
It confirms a reduction in vaccine efficacy which is being denied and highlights particular concern around the Oxford vaccine.
There is more confidence after two doses.
It's very red as far as risk registers go. It would be very challenging for a following the science Conservative Government to ignore.
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Yep, they’ve plastered a big red mark next to it, and then said
Quote:
Iterated analysis continues to show vaccine effectiveness against Delta is higher after 2 doses but that there is a reduction for Delta compared to Alpha. There is a high level of uncertainty around the magnitude of the change in vaccine effectiveness after 2 doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
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Quote:
Although this is observational data subject to some biases, it holds true across several analytic approaches and the same effect is seen in both English and Scottish data. It is strongly supported by pseudovirus and live virus neutralisation data from multiple laboratories. There are no data on whether prevention of transmission is affected and insufficient data to assess vaccine effectiveness against severe disease.
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I didn’t say that there wasn’t any evidence, I said it was scarce, this does nothing as yet to alter that assessment.
So they don’t really know yet.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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04-06-2021, 11:50
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#5586
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,223
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Re: Coronavirus
Sounds to me like proposing to bury your head in the sand rather than acknowledge the inevitable delay that is inbound.
Vaccines are less effective - that means more hospitalisations. More deaths. These things are absolutely inevitable.
If ever there was evidence to support a delay it's all there in red and white. Unless you are that desperate to force another lockdown?
Professor Pantsdown has been on Radio 4 saying the end is nigh so that's a done deal in my book.
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04-06-2021, 11:57
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#5587
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,187
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Re: Coronavirus
The fact that Portugal has been taken off the green list and no new countries added suggests the government is not afraid to take a cautious approach.
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04-06-2021, 11:59
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#5588
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,223
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1
The fact that Portugal has been taken off the green list and no new countries added suggests the government is not afraid to take a cautious approach.
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When the alternative is months in lockdown it’s the only sensible course.
The vast, vast majority of people would prefer to keep where they are now as they don’t have an ideological dog in the game.
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04-06-2021, 12:16
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#5589
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: At the Leaving door
Posts: 4,050
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
The vast, vast majority of people would prefer to keep where they are now as they don’t have an ideological dog in the game.
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Would you happen to have on hand any figures to support that claim . . . maybe . . you know . . a poll of 1382 people done by an independent marketing company specialising in hair transplants or something?
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04-06-2021, 12:42
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#5590
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 11,985
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Vaccines are less effective
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There is a high level of uncertainty to that statement...............according to your source.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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04-06-2021, 12:48
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#5591
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,223
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
There is a high level of uncertainty to that statement...............according to your source.
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To the extent - for one specific vaccine after two doses.
That doesn't apply to the statement on reduced efficacy overall or the Pfizer vaccine at all.
Less time spent selectively interpreting it and more time spent reading what it actually says and we'd all spend less time discussing it.
Even if I conceded you were right - which I absolutely do not - uncertainty justifies delay until more data is available.
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04-06-2021, 12:59
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#5592
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 53
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,664
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Re: Coronavirus
So it looks like the discussion here is at an impasse - some want to open up unless it is proved unsafe to do so and others want to stay locked down unless it is proved safe to open up.
Only one of these options is fail safe in terms of COVID and that is the second one. I feel that the government got its fingers burnt badly late last year and would tend to err towards being more cautious.
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04-06-2021, 13:05
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#5593
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,206
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
There is a high level of uncertainty to that statement...............according to your source.
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That's only one vaccine. The report itself states a high degree of confidence in that finding. They do this each week and it's been getting progressively more certain in their finds.
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04-06-2021, 13:11
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#5594
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 10,223
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Re: Coronavirus
Some good news the MHRA has approved the Pfizer vaccine for use 12 years and upwards - safe and effective.
We can now find out how serious the JCVI are about reaching population level immunity via vaccination.
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04-06-2021, 13:24
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#5595
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 53
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,664
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
Some good news the MHRA has approved the Pfizer vaccine for use 12 years and upwards - safe and effective.
We can now find out how serious the JCVI are about reaching population level immunity via vaccination.
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That is great news. I would be all up for my kids having the jab if it makes things safer for seeing their grandparents. There will of course be the argument that kids aren't really affected by COVID so why have the jab but reducing the chances of spread is a good thing.
The same argument is used for HPV vaccination of teenage boys - they'll just get warts from HPV (plus an extremely low rate of penile cancer) but it will help reduce cases of cervical cancer in the long term
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