Coronavirus

Originally Posted by Taf

The problem being that a new variant could be easier to transmit, asymptomatic for longer whilst still being exhaled, worse for our health, and thus a higher risk to the NHS.

.... and an asteroid could hit the earth and that would be equally bad for us, and the NHS.

Probability vs possibility - it's probable (likely) that a new variant could be easier to transmit (cf. the Vietnam variant), it's possible that an asteroid could hit the Earth (but unlikely).

If something is possible, it could happen.
If something is probable, it is likely to happen.

It's possible that Old Boy would support further lockdown measures - it's probable that he won't...

[Carth]

I could possibly mow the lawn tomorrow, but . .

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

"Scamper down the rabbit hole" is not equal to maintaining sensible restrictions based on the data.

However he's telling you what you want to hear after a selective interpretation so hooray for your mood for now. Less so on June 22.

The easiest way to manage hospitalisations and deaths is maximise vaccine rollout.

A decision based on what could happen that probably won’t happen is not at all sensible when it would cause struggling businesses to fail and more people to be thrown out of work.

There will be many more variants before this is over but as long as hospital admissions can be kept under control, this should not be of major concern.

The PM would be rightly criticised if he failed to end restrictions based on what some people think could happen when we have a very successful vaccination programme which is nearing completion and with boosters planned to tackle variants on the way.

I suspect that many of those shouting from the rooftops for the measures to continue are benefiting from the furlough scheme and don’t want to return to work.

---------- Post added at 19:45 ---------- Previous post was at 19:43 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

Probability vs possibility - it's probable (likely) that a new variant could be easier to transmit (cf. the Vietnam variant), it's possible that an asteroid could hit the Earth (but unlikely).

If something is possible, it could happen.
If something is probable, it is likely to happen.

It's possible that Old Boy would support further lockdown measures - it's probable that he won't...

You are right on that point. By the way, the Vietnam variant is said to be under control.

[jfman]

Old Boy can we get a correction on your "less than 20" hospitalisations claim? I checked Pierre's post and he was definitely referring to deaths.

On that note I'm very reluctant to take credible the thoughts of anyone who confuses the two, yet still reaches the same conclusion every time.

I doubt all those nightclub workers and those who work in stadium venues are making the most noise to be fair. But your snide dig at the lowest paid and most at risk was noted.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Old Boy can we get a correction on your "less than 20" hospitalisations claim? I checked Pierre's post and he was definitely referring to deaths.

On that note I'm very reluctant to take credible the thoughts of anyone who confuses the two, yet still reaches the same conclusion every time.

I doubt all those nightclub workers and those who work in stadium venues are making the most noise to be fair. But your snide dig at the lowest paid and most at risk was noted.

Yes, I meant to confirm that you were right on that point. I should have looked back at Pierre’s post before responding. I was relying on memory only, for which I do indeed apologise.

However, there are no concerns currently regarding hospitalisations, which are running flat nationwide. Transmission may be increasing, but clearly the vaccination programme is preventing this from becoming a problem like the first two waves. Assuming this remains the case in two weeks time (why wouldn’t it?) the PM will be very confident indeed that current restrictions can end.

I did not have a ‘dig’ at low paid workers, by the way. You don’t have to be low paid to be on furlough. The point was that those who are still receiving sufficient money to live on without having to work are the most likely not to want to see restrictions lifted.

Those who need to get the restrictions ended so that they can keep their businesses going or go back to work before their employer’s business folds are absolutely desperate for this to end.

I get it that some people want to keep the mask wearing and social distancing, but there is nothing to stop them continuing to observe these precautions. I shouldn’t think there are many clubbers amongst them, though.

[jfman]

I’m surprised that hospitalisations can be 7 times higher than you originally opined yet still you reach the same conclusion. The same conclusion you reach every time.

I doubt many want mask wearing and distancing to continue to be fair. The fact is they reduce transmission and this allows more aspects of the economy to open up. Nobody benefits from another lockdown, least of all the business owners you seemingly care for more than their workforce.

If you are right a delay is just that. A delay of the inevitable. The stats will remain low. The case to continue easing gets stronger. In particular when schools close for summer ending a significant vector of transmission for weeks.

If you’re wrong it’s lockdown. And that’s months knee deep in it. Plus months to ease in phases.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m surprised that hospitalisations can be 7 times higher than you originally opined yet still you reach the same conclusion. The same conclusion you reach every time.

I doubt many want mask wearing and distancing to continue to be fair. The fact is they reduce transmission and this allows more aspects of the economy to open up. Nobody benefits from another lockdown, least of all the business owners you seemingly care for more than their workforce.

If you are right a delay is just that. A delay of the inevitable. The stats will remain low. The case to continue easing gets stronger. In particular when schools close for summer ending a significant vector of transmission for weeks.

If you’re wrong it’s lockdown. And that’s months knee deep in it. Plus months to ease in phases.

... And if OB is right?

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

... And if OB is right?

He could be.

Nearly 40 per cent of recently registered Covid deaths in England and Wales were people who died primarily from another condition, latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.

Out of 107 Covid deaths registered in the week ending May 21, just 66 had the virus recorded as the underlying cause of death – 61.7 per cent.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ly-conditions/

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

A decision based on what could happen that probably won’t happen is not at all sensible when it would cause struggling businesses to fail and more people to be thrown out of work.

There will be many more variants before this is over but as long as hospital admissions can be kept under control, this should not be of major concern.

The PM would be rightly criticised if he failed to end restrictions based on what some people think could happen when we have a very successful vaccination programme which is nearing completion and with boosters planned to tackle variants on the way.

I suspect that many of those shouting from the rooftops for the measures to continue are benefiting from the furlough scheme and don’t want to return to work.

---------- Post added at 19:45 ---------- Previous post was at 19:43 ----------



You are right on that point. By the way, the Vietnam variant is said to be under control.

”Said to be under control" by whom?

---------- Post added at 00:14 ---------- Previous post was at 00:12 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

... And if OB is right?

And if he isn’t?

Originally Posted by Hugh

And if he isn’t?

and if he is .....

We could just keep repeating this forever, not really a useful response.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

”Said to be under control" by whom?

---------- Post added at 00:14 ---------- Previous post was at 00:12 ----------

And if he isn’t?

What jfman said:

It’s lockdown.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m surprised that hospitalisations can be 7 times higher than you originally opined yet still you reach the same conclusion. The same conclusion you reach every time.

I doubt many want mask wearing and distancing to continue to be fair. The fact is they reduce transmission and this allows more aspects of the economy to open up. Nobody benefits from another lockdown, least of all the business owners you seemingly care for more than their workforce.

If you are right a delay is just that. A delay of the inevitable. The stats will remain low. The case to continue easing gets stronger. In particular when schools close for summer ending a significant vector of transmission for weeks.

If you’re wrong it’s lockdown. And that’s months knee deep in it. Plus months to ease in phases.

The daily figure of hospitalisations UK-wide as of now is 123, and it is stable, despite the number of cases rising. Why? The vaccination programme, which, like it or not, is the game changer that will enable the government to remove restrictions on 21 June. There is no case for delay. Time to move on and get our lives back to normal.

[jonbxx]

This morning I have been looking the numbers for the UK to try and get a handle on what might happen going forward and I am not sure how conclusive things are right now....

The cases are definitely on the way up (link) Not unexpected given the looser restrictions now. However, I went all Donald Trump and wondered if this was due to more testing and so had a look at the positivity rate and that is also on the way up (link) too so this isn't just because we are looking more.

There is also an uptick on hospitalisations - 17% week on week (link) which is a bit more worrying.

However, deaths remain flat right now (link) which is good news.

I guess the decision for what will happen on the 21st depends on the following questions;

• Will the hospitalisations go up in line with the case load?
• Will the death rate follow this?

Historically, there has been a couple weeks to go from case to hospital and hospital to death so I think this will be a last minute decision

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

<SNIP>

There is also an uptick on hospitalisations - 17% week on week (link) which is a bit more worrying.

<SNIP>

Are you right, Jon?

If you tip the data from the link into a spreadsheet (see attached), the 17% increase week on week is not evident.