Coronavirus

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

No, and I'm on record on here no so long ago stating such.

There is no need. IMO, for any under 18's...........under 30's really without underlying conditions to be vaccinated, (in regards to the 18-30 unless they want to be)

Without a vaccination programme (and confidence in it) in practice the herd immunity threshold will never be hit without significant vaccine penetration (or infection) within those groups.

More restrictions, for longer and potentially future lockdowns.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Jaymoss

Can not go back to it because they never hung em (unfortunately for the remoaners)

Just hung out to dry...

Originally Posted by Hugh

And if one of the mutations finds a way round the vaccine, that defeats all the work we have put in already.

And that's the point I was making the other day about France but lost the will to proceed due to people knowing better

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Per the latest announcements from the MHRA, EMA and WHO, there is a noted association but still no demonstrated causal link.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56665150

There is, by definition, still doubt over whether there is an “identifiable risk” with the Oxford-AZ vaccine. A link is plausible and there are plausible hypotheses around causation.

But as I’m sure you’ll agree, it’s important to be led by the science and not state more or less than has been established.

Suspect the politicians in the UK and EU - who don't have a vaccination plan of any substance without significant proportions of AZ vaccine will always play these 'doubts' despite the science.

The important part is that the benefits outweigh the risks, which they do. But that's not to say there are no risks.

What is quite obvious is that despite a huge "rally behind the flag' effort this couldn't be hushed up any longer against emerging evidence.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

But, and I can't repeat this often enough, it isn't the flu...

I know it isn’t but it will be monitored and managed annually like the flu

And if one of the mutations finds a way round the vaccine, that defeats all the work we have put in already.

No evidence of that, the vaccine producers have already gone on record that they can adapt and develop the vaccines to address other strains as and when they might appear.

---------- Post added at 18:24 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Without a vaccination programme (and confidence in it) in practice the herd immunity threshold will never be hit without significant vaccine penetration (or infection) within those groups.

More restrictions, for longer and potentially future lockdowns.

If you are vaccinating those that need to be vaccinated, why the need for “herd immunity”. Zero COVID is like chasing the end of the rainbow.

Vaccinate the vulnerable, manage the risks, live our lives.

[jfman]

Nobody is disputing the skill of vaccine developers. The capability to manufacture and distribute vaccines on the other hand takes months. Months of lockdowns and other restrictions.

[pip08456]

Under 30s in the UK will be offered the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine instead of AstraZeneca due to a small number of blood clots
"Changes in preference for vaccines are business as usual, and this is a course correction" - Jonathan Van Tam

Originally Posted by jfman

What is quite obvious is that despite a huge "rally behind the flag' effort this couldn't be hushed up any longer against emerging evidence.

Yes, I'm sure the EMA was absolutely at the beck and call of No.10 when it came to announcing findings over this.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

If you are vaccinating those that need to be vaccinated, why the need for “herd immunity”. Zero COVID is like chasing the end of the rainbow.

Vaccinate the vulnerable, manage the risks, live our lives.

Herd immunity and zero Covid aren’t one and the same thing.

Managing the risk is to remove as many opportunities for the virus to mutate as possible.

Not managing that risk - not reaching the herd immunity threshold - is resigning ourselves to failure. Inevitable mutation, more restrictions, more lockdowns, greater economic costs and more requirement for vaccines in the long run.

---------- Post added at 18:32 ---------- Previous post was at 18:29 ----------

Originally Posted by Chris

Yes, I'm sure the EMA was absolutely at the beck and call of No.10 when it came to announcing findings over this.

Nobody is doubting the EMAs transparency given they identified the risks first despite a slower vaccine rollout. We passed the threshold at which is was possible to blame it as the EU deflecting.

It’s apparent we’ve known for some time. The Telegraph article describing an upcoming “difficult two weeks” for the Oxford vaccine didn’t spawn itself into existence. Someone briefed that.

Originally Posted by Pierre

I know it isn’t but it will be monitored and managed annually like the flu



No evidence of that, the vaccine producers have already gone on record that they can adapt and develop the vaccines to address other strains as and when they might appear.

---------- Post added at 18:24 ---------- Previous post was at 18:21 ----------



If you are vaccinating those that need to be vaccinated, why the need for “herd immunity”. Zero COVID is like chasing the end of the rainbow.

Vaccinate the vulnerable, manage the risks, live our lives.

Not sure I think "monitoring and managing" something with six times the death rate of flu an appropriate method of health management...

COVID is much more infectious and deadlier than the flu,so it can’t be "managed and monitored" like it.

https://www.health.org.uk/publicatio...a-proved-wrong

Key points

Myth 1: ‘Those who die from COVID-19 would have died soon anyway’

In the first year of COVID-19 (5 March 2020 to 5 March 2021), 1.5 million potential years of life were lost in the UK as a result of people dying with the virus. In England and Wales alone this figure is 1.4 million.
On average, each of the 146,000 people who died with COVID-19 lost 10.2 years of life.
Myth 2: ‘It’s just a bad flu season’

In a bad flu year on average around 30,000 people in the UK die from flu and pneumonia, with a loss of around 250,000 life years. This is a sixth of the life years lost to COVID-19.

We have more detailed data for England and Wales. This shows us that, even looking only at those aged older than 75 (who account for most COVID-19 and flu deaths) – COVID-19 has been much more deadly. In 2018, a bad flu year, around 25,000 people older than 75 died from flu or pneumonia. These people lost a total of 140,000 years of life – 5.75 years each on average. This is about a quarter of the life years lost among those older than 75 from COVID-19.

More years of men's lives have been lost in the pandemic than women’s. Again, looking at England and Wales, women older than 75 lost around four-times more years of life than for a bad flu season; for men it was five times higher.
Myth 3: ‘COVID-19 is the great leveller – we are all equally at risk’

COVID-19 was not the great leveller. People in the 20% most deprived parts of England were twice as likely to die from COVID-19 as those in the least deprived areas. They also died at younger ages, so may have lost more years of life. While existing health inequalities mean these people may have had lower life expectancy, the analysis found that in total, 35% more lives were lost in the 20% most deprived areas than the least, with 45% more years of life lost in total.
On average, each person who died in the most deprived quintile lost 11 years of their life, compared with 10 years in the least deprived.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Chris

Yes, I'm sure the EMA was absolutely at the beck and call of No.10 when it came to announcing findings over this.

The EMA have announced their findiings today.

EMA confirms overall benefit-risk remains positive

EMA’s safety committee (PRAC) has concluded today that unusual blood clots with low blood platelets should be listed as very rare side effects of Vaxzevria (formerly COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca).

In reaching its conclusion, the committee took into consideration all currently available evidence, including the advice from an ad hoc expert group.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/as...lots-low-blood

[papa smurf]

No more lockdowns: UK will treat Covid like seasonal flu, says Chris Whitty


Lockdowns will likely become a thing of the past once England emerges from restrictions in June, Professor Chris Whitty has said, as he suggested Britain will treat coronavirus like the flu in the future.


https://www.cityam.com/no-more-lockd...-chris-whitty/

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

No more lockdowns: UK will treat Covid like seasonal flu, says Chris Whitty


Lockdowns will likely become a thing of the past once England emerges from restrictions in June, Professor Chris Whitty has said, as he suggested Britain will treat coronavirus like the flu in the future.


https://www.cityam.com/no-more-lockd...-chris-whitty/

If that is the case then no need for (internal) covid vaccine passport or twice a week testing.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by pip08456

If that is the case then no need for (internal) covid vaccine passport or twice a week testing.

we just may have to admit it's over and start living and working again.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

If that is the case then no need for (internal) covid vaccine passport or twice a week testing.

On the contrary - it makes them more essential to managing the response. Not less.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Not sure I think "monitoring and managing" something with six times the death rate of flu an appropriate method of health management...

Well..................that’s why you will be vaccinated every year.......Like........the........flu

Jesse Bloom, an evolutionary biologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, thinks the coronavirus might follow a similar path. “I do think SARS-CoV-2 will become a less serious problem and something like flu,” he says. Shaman and others say the virus could also settle into a seasonal pattern of annual winter outbreaks similar to flu.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2

"And this starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going." - Patrick Vallance

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...20-p566no.html

But even if the virus sticks around, new vaccines and new drugs to fight the virus mean it's unlikely to cause severe illness in the future. Offit predicts "that eventually, it will cause fewer deaths than influenza."

It is possible, experts say, that COVID-19 could become a seasonal illness, like the flu. Virologists call this an "endemic" disease -- one that is constantly circulating among us. In the years and decades to come, many people will be exposed to it in childhood and develop some immunity, which would protect them later in life against serious disease.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-...ry?id=75830451

"Variations of this virus will be around for a long time," Langlois said in an interview airing today on CBC's political affairs program The House.

"It may even become endemic, which means that every year when we get our flu shot, we'll be getting our coronavirus shot for whatever variants are circulating at that specific time."

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thehouse/co...ants-1.5973320

---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:46 ----------

Originally Posted by papa smurf

No more lockdowns: UK will treat Covid like seasonal flu, says Chris Whitty


Lockdowns will likely become a thing of the past once England emerges from restrictions in June, Professor Chris Whitty has said, as he suggested Britain will treat coronavirus like the flu in the future.


https://www.cityam.com/no-more-lockd...-chris-whitty/

Don’t tell that to Hugh!

---------- Post added at 19:50 ---------- Previous post was at 19:48 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

On the contrary - it makes them more essential to managing the response. Not less.

No it doesn’t. The response is “vaccinate all those required - annually”