Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

As part of the UK, Scotland should pay it’s share.

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If the Scots really don’t want Indy2, they should jolly well stop supporting the SNP!

You do realise, do you not, that “the Scots” and “the electorate in Scotland” are two wholly different things, I hope? And that in any case you can’t talk about “them” as some sort of homogenous mass?

“The Scots” do not vote for the SNP. Up to around half of voters in Scotland vote for them (though normally a little less than half). The voting system for Holyrood is not perfect, just as it isn’t perfect for Westminster either. The number of seats won does not precisely reflect the number of votes won. And in any case, the SNP is a minority administration. The only reason they have been able to cause such constitutional mischief in the last 5 years is because the Scottish Green Party reneged on an election promise that they would only support another referendum under certain very specific conditions. These have not been met (not even close), but the Greens have become the useful idiots of the separatist movement in Scotland, and have been giving their unqualified support for efforts to win a new referendum for several years now.

There are 6 Green MSPs at the moment, which is *just* enough to create a separatist majority in the chamber.

[nashville]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You could still vote in another political party, post independence.

And aren't you ruled by the SNP now to some extent?

That is the problem, They are bad enough just now. So if they get ever get independence . God help us. We wold have NO one to help us out.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I wish that Hugh would resist the temptation to snipe in the way that he does.

That would mean he’d have to post something meaningful and accurate to aid a debate, don’t wish for the moon.

Originally Posted by Pierre

That would mean he’d have to post something meaningful and accurate to aid a debate, don’t wish for the moon.

Really?

Do you mean like "Covid is a flu"?

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I wish that Hugh would resist the temptation to snipe in the way that he does.

OB has made serious points. The SNP is a governance disaster; their balance sheets is not sustainable on its own; their education system is a failure. They have never set out their economic plan for independence - which is quite dishonest.

On those grounds, intelligent Scots should not support the SNP.

I wish that you would have a sense of humour, but that's like wishing for the moon...

[Carth]

Are we allowed to have and display a sense of humour nowadays?

I don't mean on here, but in general. Going by the amount of untalented unfunny comedians shown on the TV lately, and the ascendancy of the 'ooh I'm offended' culture, I'm guessing the answer is no

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Really?

Do you mean like "Covid is a flu"?

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I wish that you would have a sense of humour, but that's like wishing for the moon...

Nobody else doubts my sense of humour. Your turn of phrase and manner of put down is offensive - for all to see.

[Hom3r]

Thinking about the new Alba party, now this is going to split the vote between the SNP and Alba.


So neither is likely to get a majority, so who do they team up with, as I can't see Salmond or Sturgeon teaming up following recent events?


I guess the upside is that this could kill the independence vote

Originally Posted by Hom3r

Thinking about the new Alba party, now this is going to split the vote between the SNP and Alba.


So neither is likely to get a majority, so who do they team up with, as I can't see Salmond or Sturgeon teaming up following recent events?


I guess the upside is that this could kill the independence vote

It doesn't really work like that under the Holyrood voting system. As well as the constituency vote (same as Westminster) we all get a second 'list' vote which adds additional MSPs, taking account both of the number of list votes gained, but also the number of MSPs each party has gained in the constituency contest.

The Alba party is only standing on the list. It is not standing in any constituencies. If everyone who votes SNP in a constituency, then votes Alba on the list, the likelihood is that the Holyrood chamber would have around 60 SNP MSPs, all from constituency contests, and a further 30 Alba MSPs, all from the regional lists.

Nicola Sturgeon has argued that nationalist voters absolutely should not do this because that result would be such an egregious abuse of a voting system designed to create proportionality and fair representation, it would only end up harming the demand for a second referendum. The risk for her now though is that most, but not all, SNP supporters do as she asks and vote SNP on both the constituency and the list ballots. If the SNP bleeds a few list votes it may lose what list MSPs it has, without the Alba Party itself gaining enough votes to pick those seats up instead.

It's very hard to work out what might happen, because the voting system in use in Scotland is really only designed to repair the main deficiency in the first-past-the-post constituency contest, which is that a party may have a good showing across the country, but come second everywhere and end up with nothing. If the list becomes full of parties that only stand on the list, and do not put up candidates in individual constituencies too, then there is an increasing risk of perverse outcomes.

[Taf]

Whenever I see the polling predictions of how the Scottish will vote, I remember my small group of friends living in Scotland. They all told me in private messages that they would always vote against independence or the SNP, but would never admit that on forums or in conversations with friends or family.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Here are a few curve balls for the topic:

1/
Should we allow the referendum before Charlie Farley becomes King?

2/
Would a referendum in 20 years' time be in King William's reign?

3/
Would an independent Scotland be saddled with its share of the Covid debt?

4/
Would England demand that the Withdrawal Agreement be settled before anything else is negotiated?

5/
Will Scotland in the EU be bound by the current EU-UK trade agreement?

Love it!

<SNIP>

I should add something to the list:

6/
Citizenship - Scots on the Scottish electoral roll (and descendants) on the day prior to SCEXIT will no longer hold British citizenship from 12 months after secession. The rules for granting British nationality to Scots will need to be tight. For example, time-limited period for requesting retention of British nationality; if born in England or Wales, then allowed; if born in Scotland but normally resident in England or Wales, then allowed.


From my perspective, we are in the strange position of not wanting to break the UK up, but if they're that stupid then we're forked on making it easy for them to split or difficult so as to deter them.

As we're (England & Wales) not going to cave in financially (are we?), then a split will indeed be bitter. The Nats will be trying to screw us for every penny, we'll be totally resistant which will lead to impasse and a decision point for the Nats; we don't have to do anything. Should be interesting.

What about dual nationality? - the U.K. already allows that for Irish (and Canadian, amongst quite a lot of others) passport holders.

[Carth]

If Scotland left the UK, would their footballers then have to abide by the same rules & regulations as other foreign players?

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I should add something to the list:

6/
Citizenship - Scots on the Scottish electoral roll (and descendants) on the day prior to SCEXIT will no longer hold British citizenship from 12 months after secession. The rules for granting British nationality to Scots will need to be tight. For example, time-limited period for requesting retention of British nationality; if born in England or Wales, then allowed; if born in Scotland but normally resident in England or Wales, then allowed.


From my perspective, we are in the strange position of not wanting to break the UK up, but if they're that stupid then we're forked on making it easy for them to split or difficult so as to deter them.

As we're (England & Wales) not going to cave in financially (are we?), then a split will indeed be bitter. The Nats will be trying to screw us for every penny, we'll be totally resistant which will lead to impasse and a decision point for the Nats; we don't have to do anything. Should be interesting.

What you’re proposing is removing British citizenship from people born with it, and who voted against separation. That would be an extraordinary state of affairs and would have international repercussions. This is not the same as removal of EU so-called “citizenship” post-Brexit, which is actually no more than a gloss on a web of international treaties. British is a nationality recognised everywhere.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Chris

What you’re proposing is removing British citizenship from people born with it, and who voted against separation. That would be an extraordinary state of affairs and would have international repercussions. This is not the same as removal of EU so-called “citizenship” post-Brexit, which is actually no more than a gloss on a web of international treaties. British is a nationality recognised everywhere.

Collateral damage, blame the snp or better still get rid of them.

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Originally Posted by Hugh

What about dual nationality? - the U.K. already allows that for Irish (and Canadian, amongst quite a lot of others) passport holders.

That doesn't sound much like separatism.

Originally Posted by papa smurf

Collateral damage, blame the snp or better still get rid of them.

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That doesn't sound much like separatism.

Like the Irish who separated?