U.S Election 2020

Originally Posted by jfman

Anyone staying up to watch the results?

Originally Posted by Mick

Though I think if it is close, then we won't know results by morning.

Same

But unless it's anything other that a blowout (Biden winning Flordia, Trump clearly killing it in all the swing states as what happened last time) then we won't know even in the morning. The sheer amount of postal votes will take time to count hence the 'blue/red shift' worries where a state switches candidate in the days following.

Here is a good breakdown of when states will report and the assumption on if a blue or red shift is more likely: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...esults-timing/

So the networks might call some states if a candidate is far enough ahead that they think the remaining postal votes either won't make up a difference or are only likely to increase the leading candidates lead.

So if Biden were winning in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin but then also won Florida which will likely be called on the night/morning then they might call it but otherwise it might take days.

Former U.S President Barack Obama was at a campaign event in Flint, Michigan today when he had to resort to calling his former VP. Sleepy Joe, three times, missing his initial intro to the podium.

https://twitter.com/FrancisBrennan/s...13557448609792

[1andrew1]

Whose call do you think Biden will return first when he's President?*
a) Boris Johnson
b) Angela Merkel
c) Xi Jinping
d) Justin Trudeau
d) Another leader not listed

* Prediction based on Fox News showing Biden ahead by 8%

[jfman]

President of the Ukraine?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

President of the Ukraine?

Predictions then?

I think Biden will win but it is closer in the swing states so who knows?

My big fear at the moment is legal battles over ballots not yet counted on Tuesday night.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Damien

Predictions then?

I think Biden will win but it is closer in the swing states so who knows?

My big fear at the moment is legal battles over ballots not yet counted on Tuesday night.

All the clever money is on Biden as l expect him to win quite comfortably.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

Predictions then?

I think Biden will win but it is closer in the swing states so who knows?

My big fear at the moment is legal battles over ballots not yet counted on Tuesday night.

Given up predicting elections and referendums. I make the mistake of thinking the best of people and crediting them with too much intelligence

If Trump is re-elected the American people will be confirmed as the dumbest on Earth. Wouldn't be so bad if it just affected them.

[jfman]

https://twitter.com/dailycaller/stat...907005962?s=21

One for Mick.

[Jimmy-J]

Trump will be re-elected for sure.

Biden will win ... Just *







(* I'm usually wrong on election guesses...)

BREAKING: U.S President Donald Trump set to win US presidency by electoral college landslide Sunday Express Poll finds.

DONALD TRUMP is on course to win four more years in the White House with a one point lead in the popular win, the final Democracy Institute poll for the Sunday Express has found.

The last Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll gave the US President a two point lead and landed just after he went into hospital with coronavirus.

Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

It means he is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival in a result which would shock the world even more than his astonishing defeat of Hilary Clinton in 2016.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll has throughout the campaign been one of the few to predict a Trump victory since March.

This is because unlike other polls it only looks at people identifying as likely voters instead of just registered to vote and it has tried to identify the shy Trump vote.

According to this latest poll almost eight in ten (79 percent) of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends and family compared to 21 percent of Biden supporters.

With the race hotting up in the final days allegations that Mr Biden and his family are corrupt surrounding claims about his son Hunter’s business dealings with China and the Ukraine using family connections appear to have had cut through.

There was controversy when social media platforms including Twitter apparently attempted to filter out the stories surrounding Hunter Biden published by the New York Post.

But the row has, according to the poll, only helped to put the issue in the public consciousness more.

Asked who they thought was telling the truth about the Biden family allegations 57 percent chose businessman and former Biden associate Tony Bobulinski who has levelled accusations against the former vice President.

Meanwhile, 52 percent agreed that Mr Biden is “a corrupt politician” with 21 percent saying they are less likely to vote for him and 75 percent saying it makes no difference.

Asked if the allegations made him a national security risk, 54 percent agreed that it did.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...n-swing-states

Different from the other polls certainly, not long to find out now.

[jfman]

Unsure of their methodology in finding "shy Trump voters" among "likely voters". If they were shy surely they'd be claiming they are unlikely to vote?

Originally Posted by Damien

Different from the other polls certainly, not long to find out now.

Does appear to be an outlier compared to other polls.