22-09-2020, 11:42
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#5926
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,410
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
Easier said than done.
In any case, we have already heard about the problems of relying on these results. There are no 'quick fixes' to this, I'm afraid. Other than an effective vaccine, of course, which we don't have.
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No one's saying there's a quick fix and even a vaccine takes time to roll-out even if pre-manufactured. But the three Ts need to be fixed and we can learn from other countries that have done so.
Interestingly, I read that another reason that has benefited Sweden is its very high proportion of one-person households. Its average household at about 1.75 people is the lowest in Europe. The UK's is about 2.25. You are more likely to get infected by a household member than anyone else.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statis...nd_in_2019.png
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22-09-2020, 11:45
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#5927
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,783
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
But if the tests are manifestly inaccurate, there is no point in testing.
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Seatbelts don't save every life in a car crash, so there is no point in seatbelts? 
Anyway, back to reality - the Governments 1-5 chart in May, and the current one.
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22-09-2020, 12:02
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#5928
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,410
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I was, still am, a supporter of Boris but I'm afraid the handling of this is now trying my patience.
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I think everyone who voted for Boris knew the kind of person they would get so I've been quite surprised by the buyer's remorse I've been reading over the last months. He's been promoted beyond his ability - good at a figurehead job like London Mayor (except for the wasteful spending on the garden bridge and routemasters) but terrible at leading the country. His lack of attention to detail and preference to wing it instead of working hard is well known.
This article today from the FT delves into some of the problems he is making within his own party regarding his approach to tackling the pandemic.
Quote:
But the continual errors, not least over test and trace, allow this unease to be linked to incompetence. This is prompting a revolt over renewal of the emergency Covid powers, led by the head of the backbench 1922 Committee. Graham Brady is a man Number 10 should be clutching close but instead has alienated: he has the backing of a number of ex-ministers. Even more than the assault on liberty, they hate the ineptitude and are demanding more scrutiny. “This is what happens when you give unfettered power to people who can campaign but can’t run anything,” says one...c
Instead, government has been subcontracted to a group who despise MPs, scapegoat officials and care not for checks and balances. Their innate authoritarianism (which is not Mr Johnson’s) alienates liberal Tories. He seems torn between combative aides and his one-nation instincts.
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https://www.ft.com/content/50c34a1a-...5-4dc7bd4d176c
Last edited by 1andrew1; 22-09-2020 at 12:12.
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22-09-2020, 12:22
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#5929
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: #Plagueisland
Age: 54
Services: VM VIP Pack
Posts: 1,712
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Re: Coronavirus
The test used is pretty accurate with good sensitivity and specificity (sensitivity is correctly diagnosing a positive and specificity is correctly diagnosing a negative) I have seen numbers of 99.9% for both. That's pretty good for a clinical diagnostic test!
RT-PCR is quite a technically demanding technique but the failures are more likely to be false negatives than positives
BUT....
99.9% specificity means a false infection rate of 100 per 100,000. Even if COVID went away today, we would likely still see this background noise so at low infection rates, the effect of false positives is large.
Yesterday, we saw 4368 cases from 219723 tests. Even if we take the theoretically false positives out (220 cases) we are still a smidge over 4000 cases, up from 3105 or ~2900 when you remove theoretical false positives last week
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22-09-2020, 12:25
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#5930
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vox populi vox dei
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: the last resort
Services: every thing
Posts: 14,812
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Re: Coronavirus
The scifientists get a drubbing from Andrew Neil
Andrew Neil dismantles claim Covid cases double every 7 days ‘Using figures as propaganda'
https://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv...-Morning-video
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22-09-2020, 12:37
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#5931
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,146
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
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To what end? Who benefits?
The economy? Tory party donors?
You can only issue propaganda in order to wilfully deceive people with a goal in mind. What’s the goal? Who wins?
Andrew Neil is only advocating on behalf of the Barclay brothers property portfolios. Nothing insightful to be found here.
Last edited by jfman; 22-09-2020 at 12:48.
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22-09-2020, 13:51
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#5932
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Still alive and fighting
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: In the land of beyond and beyond.
Services: XL BB, 3 360 boxes , XL TV.
Posts: 56,657
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Re: Coronavirus
Boris Johnson has said that the new Covid 19 restrictions he is announcing are likely to remain in force for six months.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...dates-politics
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“The only lesson you can learn from history is that it repeats itself”
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22-09-2020, 14:01
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#5933
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,858
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
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22-09-2020, 14:04
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#5934
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Hiding . . from all the experts
Posts: 4,450
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by denphone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
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oh come now lads, you know damn well he's a liar*
*well that's the opinion of many on here 
__________________
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22-09-2020, 14:05
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#5935
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,146
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
oh come now lads, you know damn well he's a liar*
*well that's the opinion of many on here |
And who knows how reliable the prediction is. It could be even longer! 
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22-09-2020, 14:07
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#5936
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vox populi vox dei
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: the last resort
Services: every thing
Posts: 14,812
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Re: Coronavirus
So now i have to go out earlier to make sure i'm rat arsed by 10 PM,then i can pop round to my mates house with 50 tinnies.
__________________
To be or not to be, woke is the question Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous wokedome, Or to take arms against a sea of wokies. And by opposing end them.
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22-09-2020, 16:16
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#5937
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 13,228
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
So now i have to go out earlier to make sure i'm rat arsed by 10 PM,then i can pop round to my mates house with 50 tinnies.
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Funny thing is, if this move is to stop people staying out getting drunk and behaving in a lax way.
Just watch how Friday & Saturday nights will now start at 18:00.
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The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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22-09-2020, 16:17
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#5938
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vox populi vox dei
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: the last resort
Services: every thing
Posts: 14,812
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Funny thing is, if this move is to stop people staying out getting drunk and behaving in a lax way.
Just watch how Friday & Saturday nights will now start at 18:00.
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and end in a party at home.
__________________
To be or not to be, woke is the question Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer. The slings and arrows of outrageous wokedome, Or to take arms against a sea of wokies. And by opposing end them.
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22-09-2020, 16:25
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#5939
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Architect of Ideas
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 11,146
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Re: Coronavirus
It doesn’t matter that some will shift their drinking habits. Others will decide not to bother and that’s where the net gain comes in. Table service means fewer people inside places too.
Marginal gains.
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22-09-2020, 16:38
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#5940
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 15,410
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Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
So now i have to go out earlier to make sure i'm rat arsed by 10 PM,then i can pop round to my mates house with 50 tinnies.
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Just drink faster and talk less. 
But don't go to your mate's place if he's in Scotland. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...08aee39a113766
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman
It doesn’t matter that some will shift their drinking habits. Others will decide not to bother and that’s where the net gain comes in. Table service means fewer people inside places too.
Marginal gains.
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Yes, agreed, every little helps. I suspect Tim Martin may not be inviting BoJo around to pull pints with him as he did earlier in the year.
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