Coronavirus (OLD)

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Pip,

jfman is probably right to question your logic. The B'ham Nightingale might well have been brought out of mothballing as a matter of prudence calculated on the local R rate but taking also into account that they want regular hospitals to do regular stuff. i.e. Covid to go to Nightingale.

There is nothing inherent in all this to indicate the scale of the second wave, if it happens.

You did say "will" rather than "might".

Seph, I still stand by my use of will rather than might. As regards hospitals to do "regular" stuff why have they been told to clear beds for a Covid spike?

Unfotunately this is only based on the headline for the Telegraph paywall.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ike-two-weeks/

Exclusive: Hospitals told to clear beds for coronavirus spike in two weeks

Found this though.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...F1O?li=BBoPWjQ

[nomadking]

Simple explantion, we're approaching(2 weeks time) the time of seasonal increases in NHS demand.
Link

While it is a given that the outside temperature will drop in winter, the impact of cold weather on people's health is not restricted to the months of December to February, and the temperature does not need to get very cold either.
Moderately cold weather (when the average daily temperature falls below between 5–8oC) has a significant impact on people's health. Each 1oC drop in average daily temperature below this level results in around 4% increase in death rates in England. On average, there are 64 days of moderately cold weather – where the mean daily temperature falls below 5oC – each year in England. These days occur between October and April (see chart below).

We've basically had a lot of the summer and long days stolen from us by COVID.

I vote we cancel winter for this year and just have summer for the year.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by nomadking

We're approaching the time of seasonal increases in NHS demand.
Link

Has it not occurred to the NHS that those usually affected by , And killed by, seasonal flu are also those that should be, and probably, are routinely shielding from COVID 19.

And that many people that would use NHS services are choosing not to because of scaremongering media and general over-reaction to the pandemic.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if the NHS is far from overrun this winter, but I fear more people will die because they were too scared to seek treatment because of irrational fears over COVID, and I would expect that death toll to be much higher than deaths from Covid.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Seph, I still stand by my use of will rather than might. As regards hospitals to do "regular" stuff why have they been told to clear beds for a Covid spike?

Unfotunately this is only based on the headline for the Telegraph paywall.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ike-two-weeks/

Found this though.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coron...F1O?li=BBoPWjQ

You’re still making assumptions that don’t necessarily flow together.

We don’t know how many Covid cases there were in March/April, had no idea of the R number and no real idea which cases were being most affected. Contingency planning was done, reasonably, with a mass of incomplete or unknown data.

We do have more data now - so as Seph correctly points out this decision could be based on modelling for Birmingham alone, this doesn’t preclude further action in other areas, nor does it mean the Birmingham one will definitely be used.

To then extrapolate for their whether one wave will be worse than another, without knowing what mitigation the Government is about to embark upon, and what compliance levels there are is fundamentally guesswork.

And as nomad points out - we are approaching a time of generally peak demand for NHS services.

[nomadking]

Seeing as a Blood Transfusion Service study found 1.5% of Londoners were carrying the virus by 1st week of March, it seems unlikely the current immunity is only 6%.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Damien

We've basically had a lot of the summer and long days stolen from us by COVID.

I vote we cancel winter for this year and just have summer for the year.

I say we hibernate from winter, let Covid pass over and come back out in Spring.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Has it not occurred to the NHS that those usually affected by , And killed by, seasonal flu are also those that should be, and probably, are routinely shielding from COVID 19.

And that many people that would use NHS services are choosing not to because of scaremongering media and general over-reaction to the pandemic.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if the NHS is far from overrun this winter, but I fear more people will die because they were too scared to seek treatment because of irrational fears over COVID, and I would expect that death toll to be much higher than deaths from Covid.

Then again they shouldn't make that assumption. You could also argue that some of the potential cases for this season have been already killed by Covid-19.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Seeing as a Blood Transfusion Service study found 1.5% of Londoners were carrying the virus by 1st week of March, it seems unlikely the current immunity is only 6%.

That’s (partly) what sage are saying. Antibodies diminish over time. Although how this links to the whole immune response is not yet known.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Simple explantion, we're approaching(2 weeks time) the time of seasonal increases in NHS demand.
Link

Agreed nomad. We are now entering the "normal" time of respitory illnesses that occur at this time of year. First and formost on the list is Covid, so we may already be in the midst of that, who knows? We can only wait and see but ATM everything is pointing towards it from the Government POV.

Damien, I'm with you!

---------- Post added at 20:44 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

That’s (partly) what sage are saying. Antibodies diminish over time. Although how this links to the whole immune response is not yet known.

And yet studies have already put forward compelling pre-immunisation T-cell theories which may yet prove to be correct.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Seeing as a Blood Transfusion Service study found 1.5% of Londoners were carrying the virus by 1st week of March, it seems unlikely the current immunity is only 6%.

By this logic, the 1.5% figure in March could be the wrong figure.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

By this logic, the 1.5% figure in March could be the wrong figure.

Depnds if you are using jfman's logic or not.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

By this logic, the 1.5% figure in March could be the wrong figure.

They’re not comparing the same thing at the same time. Antibodies do diminish over time. So the 1.5% that nomad refers to can be right (then) and they might make up a smaller proportion of the 6% (now).

However as pip says there could be more to immunity with the T cell response.

How all of this translates to immunity in practice (how long does it last, is a second bout of infection significantly less severe etc) isn’t fully known.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

isn’t fully known.

That phrase can be added to just about anything related to this pandemic.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

That phrase can be added to just about anything related to this pandemic.

Haha perhaps. Some folk are better at guessing than others though.