UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

When the UK has exerted the most power politically, it has been as part of a coalition or alliance. In these alliances, compromises are made but the end justifies the means and overall, greater power is gained. Membership of the UN, NATO etc all reduce the UK's sovereignty but the end is seen to justify the means.

If a country like the UK is going to have any power economically then against a backdrop of China and the USA, it needs to be part of a larger trading bloc. No country apart from North Korea trades on WTO trade terms and so is not an option. Accepting a level playing field is not an onerous condition to me as we do not have high state intervention in industry and we have a high minimum wage. Canada is thousands of miles away so of course is not such a competitive threat as the UK is. Distance does matter in trade, as has oft been noted on this thread.

This is a small price to pay for the long-term drop in the wealth of the country no deal or a bad deal brings - wealth that could be put to good use - our nursing homes are crying out for more money, local councils' services in many parts of the country have been severely cut back since the Global Financial Crisis, a big question mark hangs over UK high streets and we are entering a big economic downturn that should not be worsened.

The EU replaced the Commonwealth as the UK's main trading partner and like the Commonwealth, the larger market helped create wealth. The difference with the EU was that it was a more competitive market. The UK could no longer force compliant nations to take ships full of Austin Allegros with square steering wheels made by people on strike every month. It had to raise its game and productivity and finally compete with its peers. It has stepped up to this challenge and many British services, products and companies are now once again world class.

There is no pipeline of deals that will replace the EU and the deals it has brought us. If such deals existed, the EU would have signed them already. And the basic rule of trade is that most trade is done with your neighbouring countries.

It's unrealistic to blame a larger organisation for having more negotiating clout than a smaller one. I think if you read the threads from 2016, there are warnings a plenty on this. I believe we even suggested that the Government would be rushing to blame the EU for not giving them what they promised the British electorate, although this was unlikely as the German car companies would force the EU to concede to our demands! Instead, you need to put this to those who knowingly or unknowingly mislead the country when they said "easiest trade deal ever."

When the UK has exerted the most power politically, it has been as part of a coalition or alliance. In these alliances, compromises are made but the end justifies the means and overall, greater power is gained. Membership of the UN, NATO etc all reduce the UK's sovereignty but the end is seen to justify the means.

I think that's an answer for convenience to set up the remainder of your arguments. As a member of NATO, the UK yielded no sovereignty; it merely participated in a mutual defence pact with no such matters as fishing rights, judicial superiority etc.

If a country like the UK is going to have any power economically then against a backdrop of China and the USA, it needs to be part of a larger trading bloc. No country apart from North Korea trades on WTO trade terms and so is not an option. Accepting a level playing field is not an onerous condition to me as we do not have high state intervention in industry and we have a high minimum wage. Canada is thousands of miles away so of course is not such a competitive threat as the UK is. Distance does matter in trade, as has oft been noted on this thread.

If we do a deal with the EU, and they drop their bullying approach, then we will be able to roll over agreements the EU made with other countries. But my real point here is that had the EEC remained as a pure trading bloc without all this federalisation crap, I'd have been perfectly happy. Your point is not entirely without merit.

This is a small price to pay for the long-term drop in the wealth of the country no deal or a bad deal brings - wealth that could be put to good use - our nursing homes are crying out for more money, local councils' services in many parts of the country have been severely cut back since the Global Financial Crisis, a big question mark hangs over UK high streets and we are entering a big economic downturn that should not be worsened.

That's where Remainers and Leavers differ. It is not a small price to pay if, by remaining, we remain under the Brussels heel and the ECJ.
If we can't forge our own path, then all we could have done in the EU is to hang onto their coat tails. There is nothing the EU can do about their High Street and they'd be no help in dealing with ours had we remained. Yours is highly spurious argument, I'm sorry to say.

The EU replaced the Commonwealth as the UK's main trading partner and like the Commonwealth, the larger market helped create wealth. The difference with the EU was that it was a more competitive market. The UK could no longer force compliant nations to take ships full of Austin Allegros with square steering wheels made by people on strike every month. It had to raise its game and productivity and finally compete with its peers. It has stepped up to this challenge and many British services, products and companies are now once again world class.

I really do despair of the plummet in the quality of your argument in the above paragraph. "Force compliant nations"? Utter rubbish and tosh. Very disappointing.

There is no pipeline of deals that will replace the EU and the deals it has brought us. If such deals existed, the EU would have signed them already. And the basic rule of trade is that most trade is done with your neighbouring countries.

I wasn't aware of that. Isn't that the problem with the EU?
Artificially high internal process because they're a tariff laden bloc with a few trade deals?

It's unrealistic to blame a larger organisation for having more negotiating clout than a smaller one. I think if you read the threads from 2016, there are warnings a plenty on this. I believe we even suggested that the Government would be rushing to blame the EU for not giving them what they promised the British electorate, although this was unlikely as the German car companies would force the EU to concede to our demands! Instead, you need to put this to those who knowingly or unknowingly mislead the country when they said "easiest trade deal ever."

That's what Barnier said - we had to be realistic. The EU are bullies, plain and simple. They accused us of wanting our cake and eating it; now, as exemplified by the fishing rights and level playing field, they want exactly the same. We really must shed ourself of the EU yoke. If we caved in with extensions and giving way on our sovereignty, they'll be pssing all over us laughing their heads off for years to come.

---------- Post added at 20:12 ---------- Previous post was at 20:09 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

Don't look at me . . . I couldn't even name twelvty labour people on the fingers of both hands

I can name (but won't) eleventyeight rabid Remainers, and defo most of them lefties.

Anyway, it's all hotting up. Yesterday's Torygraph surmises that Merkel, President of the European something, will ride to the rescue and broker something sensible. I do hope so but am not holding my breath and I want to be shot of the EU yoke.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I think that's an answer for convenience to set up the remainder of your arguments. As a member of NATO, the UK yielded no sovereignty; it merely participated in a mutual defence pact with no such matters as fishing rights, judicial superiority etc.

No, it's the addition of valid examples to move it from the purely theoretical to the practical. Membership of those organisations may not impact fishing rights but it can lead to loss of sovereignty in other areas. We can't for example, go out and buy arms from Russia or China. And in missions, UK troops may end up reporting to superiors from other countries, and vice versa.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

If we do a deal with the EU, and they drop their bullying approach, then we will be able to roll over agreements the EU made with other countries. But my real point here is that had the EEC remained as a pure trading bloc without all this federalisation crap, I'd have been perfectly happy. Your point is not entirely without merit.

I obviously disagree with you on the bullying label. I think that's a slightly weak description of negotiations where people are now finally accepting that the UK is holding a weaker hand than that decribed by Farage et al four years ago.
I do understand your point about the EU and its closer relationships between states than that between those of other trading blocs. But I understand the reasons for this - the need to prevent wars recurring and the need to be strong against the CIS.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

[That's where Remainers and Leavers differ. It is not a small price to pay if, by remaining, we remain under the Brussels heel and the ECJ.
If we can't forge our own path, then all we could have done in the EU is to hang onto their coat tails. There is nothing the EU can do about their High Street and they'd be no help in dealing with ours had we remained. Yours is highly spurious argument, I'm sorry to say.

You misunderstand the high street reference. I brought it up as one example amongst a few of areas that we can spend the that greater wealth we will get with a close relationship on. Enhanced economic performance is not an abstract concept and it can help address the problems the country faces.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I really do despair of the plummet in the quality of your argument in the above paragraph. "Force compliant nations"? Utter rubbish and tosh. Very disappointing.

That was how it worked with the Commonwealth - it had a monopoly and there were high tariffs on selling into Commonwealth countries from outside. Old-fashioned protectionism which aided strikes and low productivity.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I wasn't aware of that. Isn't that the problem with the EU?
Artificially high internal process because they're a tariff laden bloc with a few trade deals?

The UK employs far more civil servants than the EU. They have far more trade deals with other blocs than anyone else so the average external tariffs are very low.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

That's what Barnier said - we had to be realistic. The EU are bullies, plain and simple. They accused us of wanting our cake and eating it; now, as exemplified by the fishing rights and level playing field, they want exactly the same. We really must shed ourself of the EU yoke. If we caved in with extensions and giving way on our sovereignty, they'll be pssing all over us laughing their heads off for years to come.

It wasn't the EU who asked us to leave, it was the other way round. They're just reacting to the situation. You must know now negotiations work and so to label this as bullying is unhelpful to anyone trying to understand the real dynamics of the situation.

The EU is not asking for an extension so it would not be a case of caving in. It would give us a reasonable chance to negotiate something closer to what you want rather than the caving-in which Boris will do without an extension. I'm confident this will indeed happen as our Brexit plans are not sufficiently in place but I would like us to have a stronger stab at negotiating with the EU and wearing them down for an extra 12 months to see if we can improve on the deal.

[Sephiroth]

@1Andrew1

Any detailed reply that I may have given would take us round in circles as per jfman and OB.

We've set out our positions and that's that.

Next thing to look for is Boris caving in!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

@1Andrew1

Any detailed reply that I may have given would take us round in circles as per jfman and OB.

We've set out our positions and that's that.

Next thing to look for is Boris caving in!

Absolutely.
(Apologies for the lack of social distancing in the above emoji.)

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Is this the new one after China and the US deals look in peril?

The US deal is delayed, partially due to the US election - it is not in peril. China is a big unknown at present, but a change in the US administration following the election may calm everything down.

No such problems with the bloc I highlighted - all seems pretty stable there.

[1andrew1]

Johnson straight-talking about the EU.
https://twitter.com/RichardGCorbett/...34736421249024

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Johnson straight-talking about the EU.
https://twitter.com/RichardGCorbett/...34736421249024

Sometime after you were abducted by aliens and lost a huge lump of time things changed here on earth and we actually voted to leave the EU with boris taking a leading role in that process, just give your self time to catch up with the reality of the world as it is today

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The US deal is delayed, partially due to the US election - it is not in peril. China is a big unknown at present, but a change in the US administration following the election may calm everything down.

No such problems with the bloc I highlighted - all seems pretty stable there.

Is there even a commitment from Biden to negotiate a deal?

China is a “big unknown”‘ that’s almost as much of an understatement as the claim Coronavirus is a mild flu.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by jfman

Is there even a commitment from Biden to negotiate a deal?

China is a “big unknown”‘ that’s almost as much of an understatement as the claim Coronavirus is a mild flu.

I doubt he is capable of remembering what commitments he has made.

[1andrew1]

Are Brexiters really blaming the Conservative Party? The timing seems a bit odd to me. https://twitter.com/2Tone4Real/statu...403458/photo/1

[Sephiroth]

Posted by 1Andrew1 in the Cornavirus thread:
Exactly, that's the nub of the fishing dilemma, a sector that accounts for 0.01% of UK GDP but seems to take up about 50% of negotiations.

On their side too. It's highly important to them; sod'em.

[1andrew1]

A Brexit hit is looming for sectors that have emerged relatively unscathed from the Covid-19 pandemic, analysis by the London School of Economics suggests.

The LSE report says Brexit will deliver a double shock to the economy – with business conditions worsening for those sectors that have survived the impact of coronavirus and lockdown measures – whether Boris Johnson secures a deal with the EU or not.

The analysis, seen by the Guardian before its publication on Wednesday, includes information from a monthly survey of Confederation of British Industry members....

Dhingra said the coronavirus pandemic had “reduced the capacity of the UK economy to take further shocks”, and “rushing Brexit through” would “broaden the set of sectors” that experienced worsening business conditions.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ds-coronavirus

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Are Brexiters really blaming the Conservative Party? The timing seems a bit odd to me. https://twitter.com/2Tone4Real/statu...403458/photo/1

No......it’s on Twitter.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Is there even a commitment from Biden to negotiate a deal?

China is a “big unknown”‘ that’s almost as much of an understatement as the claim Coronavirus is a mild flu.

Biden isn't President yet, and besides, if he gave the thumbs up now, my understanding is that he would have forgotten about it before January.

UPDATE: I see Papa beat me to it!!




---------- Post added at 19:42 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ds-coronavirus

The LSE....

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Biden isn't President yet, and besides, if he gave the thumbs up now, my understanding is that he would have forgotten about it before January.

UPDATE: I see Papa beat me to it!!



---------- Post added at 19:42 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------



The LSE....

The LSE knows more about economics than your average forum poster and by collaborating with the CBI you have a comprehensive picture. As unfortunate as it may be.