Dominic Cummings visited parents during lockdown measures

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

You are plainly content that politicians and advisors you support can mislead the country without censure. However, the point was made that if this was a Labour administration, the current Tory supporters would the first in line to condemn, a point you chose not to address. Tribal support at the expense of objective reality.

Step back for a moment: the man in question is an advisor. An unelected employee of the Government. That's all. An objective assessment of this event would conclude that the message to the country, in the midst of a once in a century national health emergency was the priority here. No ifs or buts, the country would come first and any event that risked or compromised that message would handled accordingly. The real reason Cummings is still in place is what he holds over Johnson, Gove et. al. All this "nothing to see here", "media ****", etc. is just a smokescreen.

I do think that the Tories have miscalculated here and this will be an advantage to Starmer in the long run. The public mood, so at odds with you and the tribal Tories, is clear.

You are plainly content that politicians and advisors you support can mislead the country without censure. However, the point was made that if this was a Labour administration, the current Tory supporters would the first in line to condemn, a point you chose not to address. Tribal support at the expense of objective reality.

Where do you get that shit from? You've done it again - ascribing to me absence of a response to a point not made in the post which I was replying. You still haven't apologised to me for the last occasion you did that a couple of days ago.

Step back for a moment: the man in question is an advisor. An unelected employee of the Government. That's all. An objective assessment of this event would conclude that the message to the country, in the midst of a once in a century national health emergency was the priority here. No ifs or buts, the country would come first and any event that risked or compromised that message would handled accordingly. The real reason Cummings is still in place is what he holds over Johnson, Gove et. al. All this "nothing to see here", "media ****", etc. is just a smokescreen.

Why are you asking me to step back? I made a highly objective comment in my post. You know absolutely nothing about what, if anything, Cummins holds over the Tory hierarchy. You're worse than the "media ****".

I do think that the Tories have miscalculated here and this will be an advantage to Starmer in the long run. The public mood, so at odds with you and the tribal Tories, is clear.

How you could justify that remark from the post I made is a mystery. Did you just feel like being nasty? I'm not a tribal Tory and you'd have a difficult time trying to prove that I am.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by ianch99

You are plainly content that politicians and advisors you support can mislead the country without censure. However, the point was made that if this was a Labour administration, the current Tory supporters would the first in line to condemn

You mean in the same way Labour supporters are lining up to condemn this administration? Yes, but I don’t get your point as obviously they cancel each other out, don’t they?

The real reason Cummings is still in place is what he holds over Johnson, Gove et. al.

he’s a key member of the Brexit squad, Brexit isn’t over. He also obviously has skills and talent, too much to throw away on a whim to the Media hounds

I do think that the Tories have miscalculated here and this will be an advantage to Starmer in the long run.

. This is nothing, absolutely nothing. A side show and distraction which has actually taken a lot of heat off the Government. From other issues.

This will be forgotten about in days, not weeks.

Steamer will gain no advantage, Brexit is still unfinished that is where Starmer will battle Johnson......and Johnson will want his man next to him.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mick

There is nothing he needs to apologise for, he owes you nothing, he owes me nothing. The only reason this story has carried on is because of the media obsession, nothing else. But you knew that already.

The debate was - would an apology have shut the story down. Not whether one was required by us.

My belief - which I understand is shared by many Conservative MPs - is that it would have done.

A lack of an apology meant the story dragged over into the weekend. It also led to the Rose Garden press briefing. This increased interest in the story again as we saw a behind-the-scenes adviser speak, which is unusual. Then we heard the Barnard Castle explanation. This fuelled interest even more as the public reacted adversely.

Originally Posted by Pierre

. This is nothing, absolutely nothing. A side show and distraction which has actually taken a lot of heat off the Government. From other issues.

This will be forgotten about in days, not weeks.

Steamer will gain no advantage, Brexit is still unfinished that is where Starmer will battle Johnson......and Johnson will want his man next to him.

I think this is a bit naive. This is a story that people noticed and it'll leave a sour taste in the mouth. Every pollster that has polled on this has found people are unhappy about it and they think he broke the rules. The Government's polling collapse over the weekend has been dramatic: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4451501.html

This is something people noticed, this is something they were upset about.

The polling will likely recover but it won't be completely forgotten. Governments are rarely critically harmed by a single scandal but they can only get so many before the cumulative effect begins to tell. People are less willing to give the benefit of the doubt later, people remember the previous ones when another one pops up, their image of the party takes a hit in their minds.

As hits go, this was a bad one to take. You rarely get something as powerful as this which has as big as an impact as this did in the poll. As I said the number will ease over time but it's far from 'a sideshow' which has taken heat from the Government. Johnson paid the price to keep Cummings.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

There is nothing he needs to apologise for, he owes you nothing, he owes me nothing. The only reason this story has carried on is because of the media obsession, nothing else. But you knew that already.

He obviously doesn't 'owe' anyone an apology.

However, fundamentally he's part of a Government that has broken it's bond of trust with the people. That's why 52% - a clear majority if I recall - of Leave voters think he should resign and it's only the politicised Conservative voter base (who understand his importance to the party) resisting the public majority.

That trust is bought, and lost, through being honest with people and delivering on promises.

The Government asked the public to act in good faith, adhering to behaviours it did not mandate in regulations but only in guidance. Cummings clearly has acted in bad faith, in contravention of the guidance and pushed the limit (or exceeded) the 'reasonableness' in legislation.

Either because he thinks rules should not apply to him, or because he made an error of judgement. One of those two scenarios plays out better with the public than the other, I'm amazed such an amazing political strategist has gone for the wrong one.

Edit: separate comment I'm enjoying Seph's patriotism with blue and red test on white backgrounds.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The debate was - would an apology have shut the story down. Not whether one was required by us.

My belief - which I understand is shared by many Conservative MPs - is that it would have done.
.

No chance, only a resignation or public flogging would do.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

No chance, only a resignation or public flogging would do.

For some yes, but I doubt all of the 52% of leave voters, and 46% of Conservative voters.

It suits Conservatives (and those who don't identify as Conservative, but leap to their defence at every opportunity) to portray this as a polarising issue though and wave the Brexit flag. A lazy, ill-considered response hoping the dog whistle will come to the rescue.

I don't consider the Daily Mail, Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer as a bunch of left leaning remainers.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think this is a bit naive. This is a story that people noticed and it'll leave a sour taste in the mouth. Every pollster that has polled on this has found people are unhappy about it and they think he broke the rules. The Government's polling collapse over the weekend has been dramatic: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4451501.html

This is something people noticed, this is something they were upset about.

Polling is pretty irrelevant right now.

it’s transient. In the long game come 2024, this will not be an issue in the campaign, I am sure of it. But only my opinion obvs.

If this happened in 2023 or later I would agree. But now.....nah.

There is so much to be done now, Brexit, the economy after covid etc. The Cummings fiasco will be long forgotten, there are major issues ahead.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Polling is pretty irrelevant right now.

it’s transient. In the long game come 2024, this will not be an issue in the campaign, I am sure of it. But only my opinion obvs.

If this happened in 2023 or later I would agree. But now.....nah.

There is so much to be done now, Brexit, the economy after covid etc. The Cummings fiasco will be long forgotten, there are major issues ahead.

You falsely assume politics is governed by the electoral cycle. Johnson's leadership could easily be called into question before then, in which case the Cummings debacle, plus inept Coronavirus response, will enter the game far sooner than 2024.

The Tories love a good knifing of a leader. Will it be Gove, Sunak, Raab? All leaders in waiting watching Boris flounder.

Over 60 Tory MPs on the record calling for DC to go. Easily a higher number off the record.

[Sephiroth]

Notwithstanding the Cummings pickle, what I like is that Boris stands fast.
Bodes well for Brexit. Also Boris' brush with a CV death influences his judgement and the risks he's prepared to allow on CV.

Cummings is nothing in the grand scheme of dealing with CV. So all you bayers - just as bad as some of the media.

Originally Posted by jfman

For some yes, but I doubt all of the 52% of leave voters, and 46% of Conservative voters.

It suits Conservatives (and those who don't identify as Conservative, but leap to their defence at every opportunity) to portray this as a polarising issue though and wave the Brexit flag. A lazy, ill-considered response hoping the dog whistle will come to the rescue.

I don't consider the Daily Mail, Isabel Oakeshott and Julia Hartley-Brewer as a bunch of left leaning remainers.

How I don’t care how many times you refer to this not being about Brexit when it so clear is.

Insignificant polls mean jack shit. Polls have been wrong and are not reliable factor for accuracy measure of public mood. Isabel Oakshott, last time I saw her tweet had accepted DC’s explanation and suggested the country move forward, I concur.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

[COLOR="Blue"]Notwithstanding the Cummings pickle, what I like is that Boris stands fast.

I’ve mentioned this before the fact that the media haven’t got their head on a plate is wrecking their heads.

And oh my god listening to question time................

The Stephen Kinnock scenario was brought up, in relation to the Cummings situation, and the Bruce immediately jumped in and justified it because he was doing “shopping” for his dad. Whereas the care of a 4 year old Is far less important.

Even the several of the public participants on QT have said we’re not interested, Move on.......

Ooer look at the time. Nighty night.

Open again but everyone play nicely

Originally Posted by Pierre

Polling is pretty irrelevant right now.

it’s transient. In the long game come 2024, this will not be an issue in the campaign, I am sure of it. But only my opinion obvs.

If this happened in 2023 or later I would agree. But now.....nah.

There is so much to be done now, Brexit, the economy after covid etc. The Cummings fiasco will be long forgotten, there are major issues ahead.

I do think their poll ratings will recover if there are no other set-backs. I just think this is a setback and these types of scandals accumulate over time impacting the general perception of the Government.