Coronavirus (OLD)

Lets just be careful with this discussion, and not get into any personal arguments please.

[denphone]

Germany's Coronavirus transmission rate rises again.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-corona...e-1/a-53383279

The coronavirus reproduction rate in Germany rose to 1.1, scientists announced on Saturday after Germany loosened many of its restrictions.

That rate, which assumes statistical lag in data delivered, is the key measure used by Germany's pandemic overseer, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) based in Berlin.

A clear warning there that it would be unwise to lessen the lockdown too much imo.

Distancing is already becoming an issue in supermarkets with many becoming impatient with the laid down methods instituted by said supermarkets and others becoming rather blase about what actually constitutes 2 metres..I can't see how it's going to be maintained for much longer especially when summer arrives.Even the real threat of death doesn't seem to act as a deterrent so I doubt fines will continue to have any effect.

[nomadking]

There is still a large pool of people who have yet to become infected. Those that have become infected and have recovered can still transmit it to somebody who is still susceptible. It can only disappear if there is no longer the possibility of it having access to a viable host in order to prolong its "life" and continue the chain of infections.


I've previously used the comparison with dog fleas. Think of the dogs as the as yet uninfected, and humans as the immune. Humans can pick up dog fleas but they are unable to survive and reproduce on human blood. There is a period of time whilst the dog flea is still alive on the human, where it can jump to another human or another dog. If it jumps to another human, it is at risk of starving and dying out. If it jumps to another dog, it now has the opportunity to survive and reproduce, and carry on existing.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Maggy

Distancing is already becoming an issue in supermarkets with many becoming impatient with the laid down methods instituted by said supermarkets and others becoming rather blase about what actually constitutes 2 metres..I can't see how it's going to be maintained for much longer especially when summer arrives.Even the real threat of death doesn't seem to act as a deterrent so I doubt fines will continue have any effect.

I agree, i don't see the mood being so good when people are queued up in the rain, i can see people around me are venturing out more,i think we will have to manage our distancing and just get on with life as best we can, public transport is going to be a major problem with social distancing measures in place and i wan't my family back.

[Taf]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

I agree, i don't see the mood being so good when people are queued up in the rain,

A sudden downpour last week saw dozens of people quit the queues at our local Tesco and dive in for shelter. The staff lost all control.

---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 12:10 ----------

I did a course years ago on Contamination Control.

This sums up a lot of what I was taught, and why I believe the 2 metre rule is dangerous.

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by nomadking

There is still a large pool of people who have yet to become infected. Those that have become infected and have recovered can still transmit it to somebody who is still susceptible

You sure about that, such statements on this forum need to backed up with a citation - it’s not Facebook.

As of last month advice was that you are only contagious for around 14 days after recovering from Covid 19. I haven’t seen anything to update that.

It can only disappear if there is no longer the possibility of it having access to a viable host in order to prolong its "life" and continue the chain of infections.

if you have immunity you are no longer a viable host

I've previously used the comparison with dog fleas. Think of the dogs as the as yet uninfected, and humans as the immune. Humans can pick up dog fleas but they are unable to survive and reproduce on human blood. There is a period of time whilst the dog flea is still alive on the human, where it can jump to another human or another dog. If it jumps to another human, it is at risk of starving and dying out. If it jumps to another dog, it now has the opportunity to survive and reproduce, and carry on existing.

twaddle.

Show me the science behind that theory.

Wonders where our lovely scientist downquark is..the one scientist on CF that I trust.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Pierre

You sure about that, such statements on this forum need to backed up with a citation - it’s not Facebook.

As of last month advice was that you are only contagious for around 14 days after recovering from Covid 19. I haven’t seen anything to update that.

if you have immunity you are no longer a viable host

twaddle.

Show me the science behind that theory.

Never said a person with immunity was a viable host, just the OPPOSITE.

The immune system can only tackle it once it in the blood stream. It can therefore be in the blood stream, on peoples hands, in their mucus, in their saliva etc. That much should be obvious. It might only survive in those environments for a limited time, but it can still be passed on within that limited timeframe.

Infectious person A snogs immune person B, who in turn in a short timeframe, snogs non-infected, non-immune person C. C ends up infected. There doesn't need to be direct A to C contact. B doesn't even need to be a person. There have been cases where B has been a bottle or more strangely a spray bottle.

Thailand has today issued a new coronavirus warning after a spike of 13 cases were traced to a group of friends who shared cigarettes and whisky while on a night out.Dr Sukhum Kanchanapimai, the health ministry's permanent secretary, said that the cluster of cases was caused by party goers who became infected while enjoying Bangkok's nightlife.
He told reporters: 'There was inappropriate behaviour, sharing drinks, cigarettes and not avoiding social activities after returning from an at-risk country.'

Nearly 50 people have been infected with Covid-19 at a church in South Korea after an official sprayed salt water into members’ mouths because they thought it would kill the virus, according to The South China Morning Post, citing officials. An official at the River of Grace Community Church in Gyeonggi Province, near Seoul, used the same spray bottle on multiple church-goers without disinfecting the nozzle, causing a large number of the 100 or so attendees to be infected, including the church’s pastor and his wife.

Somebody obviously has never been around a dog or a cat with fleas.

Yes, humans can get fleas from their dogs and other pets. If you’ve ever walked across the carpet and noticed a dark speck on white socks that suddenly appears then vanishes, that speck probably was a flea.
While pets undoubtedly enrich our lives in innumerable ways, this close proximity has put us at greater risk for sharing ectoparasites, such as the flea. But don’t fret just yet; the possibility of getting fleas yourself is not reason to put your pup in the dog house.
There are thousands of species of fleas, and most animals have a specific flea species that prefers that animal as its host. While the flea that dogs typically carry can—and do—jump over to humans and bite us, the dog flea cannot survive on humans.
First, dog fleas need dog blood to eat. Second, humans aren’t hairy enough to provide ample hiding coverage or the warm environment that dog fleas seek in a home.

Takes me back to the Forces in the 70s - one of the jokes that went around at that time.

Originally Posted by Pierre

You sure about that, such statements on this forum need to backed up with a citation - it’s not Facebook.

As of last month advice was that you are only contagious for around 14 days after recovering from Covid 19. https://www.yorkpress.co.uk/news/nat...ring-covid-19/

if you have immunity you are no longer a viable host


twaddle.

Show me the science behind that theory.

I think the answer to that is "no one is quite sure, yet".

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...nt-reinfection

Another critical question she's zeroing in on is whether people who become immune are still capable of spreading the virus.

"Because you might be immune, you might have protected yourself against the virus," she says, "but it still might be in your body and you're giving it to others."

It would have huge public health implications if it turns out people can still spread the disease after they've recovered. Studies from China and South Korea seemed to suggest this was possible, though further studies have cast doubt on that as a significant feature of the disease.

Here’s hoping "not".

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the answer to that is "no one is quite sure, yet".

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...nt-reinfection

Here’s hoping "not".

The key word being "significant", as in still possible, just not to an appreciable extent.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The immune system can only tackle it once it in the blood stream. It can therefore be in the blood stream, on peoples hands, in their mucus, in their saliva etc. That much should be obvious. It might only survive in those environments for a limited time, but it can still be passed on within that limited timeframe.

Infectious person A snogs immune person B, who in turn in a short timeframe, snogs non-infected, non-immune person C. C ends up infected. There doesn't need to be direct A to C contact. B doesn't even need to be a person. There have been cases where B has been a bottle or more strangely a spray bottle.

Well I’m not sure about snogging scenario, I haven’t been to one of those parties for a long time. But of course the virus can be passed on through touching surfaces that have been coughed or sneezed on and then touching you mouth/eyes/nose we’ve always known that. Potentially 3-5 days it can remain on hard surfaces, down to a few hours on brass/ copper.

Good hygiene practices will be required and yes sharing cigarettes, spliffs, glasses, bottles etc, well that would just be plain stupid anyway.

Somebody obviously has never been around a dog or a cat with fleas.

Me? I’ve had dogs and cats my entire life, as I type I’m looking at my lazy Black Lab asleep in front of the fire.

I didn’t mean fleas jumping around was twaddle, but trying to analogise that with how COVID19 can spread imo is.

Look, I’m very open minded, we’re learning on this everyday, if you can present a paper that explains how it is possible I’m in.

But I don’t think it’s a massive risk, especially with sensible hygiene precautions.

---------- Post added at 14:16 ---------- Previous post was at 14:10 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

I think the answer to that is "no one is quite sure, yet".

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...nt-reinfection

Here’s hoping "not".

I was actually reading that, along with several more articles, before I replied. She doesn’t go into how it could be transmitted, whether she is inferring a “carrier” situation or other method? It’s the “other” I’m struggling with

We don’t yet fully understand how SARS-CoV-2 spreads from person to person. But very few viruses have human “carriers,” who transmit the virus for months or years with or without symptoms, Dudley says. More often, an infected person has a short window where they could pass the disease to another individual, ranging from a few days to a few weeks. With SARS-CoV-2, an unknown number of cases is spreading via infected individuals who show little to no symptoms of the virus — just another reason to practice social distancing while waiting for a vaccine to be available.

https://www.discovermagazine.com/hea...ainst-covid-19

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Well I’m not sure about snogging scenario, I haven’t been to one of those parties for a long time. But of course the virus can be passed on through touching surfaces that have been coughed or sneezed on and then touching you mouth/eyes/nose we’ve always known that. Potentially 3-5 days it can remain on hard surfaces, down to a few hours on brass/ copper.

Good hygiene practices will be required and yes sharing cigarettes, spliffs, glasses, bottles etc, well that would just be plain stupid anyway.



Me? I’ve had dogs and cats my entire life, as I type I’m looking at my lazy Black Lab asleep in front of the fire.

I didn’t mean fleas jumping around was twaddle, but trying to analogise that with how COVID19 can spread imo is.

Look, I’m very open minded, we’re learning on this everyday, if you can present a paper that explains how it is possible I’m in.

But I don’t think it’s a massive risk, especially with sensible hygiene precautions.

---------- Post added at 14:16 ---------- Previous post was at 14:10 ----------



I was actually reading that, along with several more articles, before I replied. She doesn’t go into how it could be transmitted, whether she is inferring a “carrier” situation or other method? It’s the “other” I’m struggling with




https://www.discovermagazine.com/hea...ainst-covid-19

The dog flea example was NEVER about how Covid-19 can spread. It was an example where something that can only survive and reproduce on one host, can use transfer an intermediary where it cannot survive, but can do so long enough to be transferred onwards. Somebody who has immunity to covid-19 can still carry it for a short period of time, and in that short period of time can transmit it to somebody who is not yet immune.


For "snogging" you can replace with various face to face activities, eg talking and possibly merely breathing.

[Ramrod]

To all those talking about extending the lockdown, apologies if this has been posted already: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...035-7/fulltext

In summary, COVID-19 is a disease that is highly infectious and spreads rapidly through society. It is often quite symptomless and might pass unnoticed, but it also causes severe disease, and even death, in a proportion of the population, and our most important task is not to stop spread, which is all but futile, but to concentrate on giving the unfortunate victims optimal care.