04-05-2020, 18:03
|
#2971
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Northampton
Services: Virgin Media TV&BB 350Mb,
V6 STB
Posts: 8,112
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
The government have said they have made mistakes that have cost lives. So, you have to accept that people are going to criticise. Especially when their are glaringly obvious errors that have been made.
Look at the 'success' Greece & New Zealand have had in managing their instances of the pandemic.
Greece has just 146 deaths, New Zealand 20
Before you say, but ah they're spread out and different country etc. etc. yes, it does to a degree play a part. However the single biggest thing that they did was to lockdown fast and they did it hard.
The government has had the same evidence as other western countries, the issue is they made bad decisions at the outset.
|
Greece had it's first case around a month after the UK and Italy. If you have less cases being brought into a country in the first place, then less cases will result.
Although they closed schools, etc and cafes, etc, before then, their restrictions on movement only started on 22nd March, just 1/2 days before the UK.
Quote:
27 February: carnival festivities are cancelled- 10 March: schools and universities are closed
- 12 March: Olympic flame is lit in Ancient Olympia with a handful of VIP guests; Greece confirms first Covid-19 death
- 13 March: cafes and restaurants are shut
- 22 March: restrictions on movement imposed
|
Quote:
Some accused the government in Athens of not just entrusting the handling of the pandemic to scientists, but of handing over responsibility too.
|
Sound familiar?
Croatia
Quote:
There were internal measures to match. Most commercial and cultural activity had ceased by mid-March. And on 23 March people were confined to their neighbourhoods unless they obtained an "e-pass" to travel.
|
New Zealand
Quote:
The last time there were no new Covid-19 cases on a single day in New Zealand was on 16 March, ahead of the national lockdown which was brought in on 25 March and before the daily briefings by health officials began – when the total number of cases was rising by one or two at a time.
|
Worldwide, most of the lockdowns occurred around the same time.
IMO unless the UK lockdown continues until at least the end of May, it runs the risk of running rampant again. Too many large gatherings are due to take place before the end of May.
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 18:50
|
#2972
|
The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,980
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking
IMO unless the UK lockdown continues until at least the end of May, it runs the risk of running rampant again. Too many large gatherings are due to take place before the end of May.
|
I'm on record on here, consistently from the very start, saying that the lock down would run until the end of May.
Furthermore, if the schools don't reopen on Monday 1st June, then they won't reopen until the new school year in Sept.
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 18:51
|
#2973
|
Trollsplatter
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 38,047
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
The government have said they have made mistakes that have cost lives. So, you have to accept that people are going to criticise. Especially when their are glaringly obvious errors that have been made.
Look at the 'success' Greece & New Zealand have had in managing their instances of the pandemic.
Greece has just 146 deaths, New Zealand 20
Before you say, but ah they're spread out and different country etc. etc. yes, it does to a degree play a part. However the single biggest thing that they did was to lockdown fast and they did it hard.
The government has had the same evidence as other western countries, the issue is they made bad decisions at the outset.
|
I’m sorry but you’re obviously well aware of the glaring deficiency in your appeals to New Zealand and Greece. You can’t dismiss that with an airy wave of your hand. The differences between a great many countries in the world, and the U.K., are profound. This is one of the best connected countries on the planet and London is one of the few true global cities in the world. Greece and NZ are partly, or entirely island based but there the similarities end; the sheer depth of connectivity the U.K. has more than overcomes that similarity. Neither country is a major international transit hub and NZ in particular is thousands of miles from anywhere else of any significance. There is literally nothing we can learn from NZ on this, given the immense differences in population size, geography and movement of people in and out of the country.
I know it’s desperately fashionable to beatify Jacinda Ardern these days but frankly, she’s playing the very lucky hand she was dealt, and that’s all.
Last edited by Chris; 04-05-2020 at 18:55.
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 19:34
|
#2974
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,460
|
Re: Coronavirus
But playing it well...
__________________
Thank you for calling the Abyss.
If you have called to scream, please press 1 to be transferred to the Void, or press 2 to begin your stare.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 19:48
|
#2975
|
067
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Middlesbrough
Age: 49
Services: Many
Posts: 4,985
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by nomadking
Greece had it's first case around a month after the UK and Italy. If you have less cases being brought into a country in the first place, then less cases will result.
Although they closed schools, etc and cafes, etc, before then, their restrictions on movement only started on 22nd March, just 1/2 days before the UK.
Sound familiar?
Croatia
New Zealand
Worldwide, most of the lockdowns occurred around the same time.
IMO unless the UK lockdown continues until at least the end of May, it runs the risk of running rampant again. Too many large gatherings are due to take place before the end of May.
|
Now, for some clarity post the sentence paragraph before this sentence 'Some accused the government in Athens of not just entrusting the handling of the pandemic to scientists, but of handing over responsibility too.'
We've read the same article and I know why you missed it out.....
---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
I’m sorry but you’re obviously well aware of the glaring deficiency in your appeals to New Zealand and Greece. You can’t dismiss that with an airy wave of your hand. The differences between a great many countries in the world, and the U.K., are profound. This is one of the best connected countries on the planet and London is one of the few true global cities in the world. Greece and NZ are partly, or entirely island based but there the similarities end; the sheer depth of connectivity the U.K. has more than overcomes that similarity. Neither country is a major international transit hub and NZ in particular is thousands of miles from anywhere else of any significance. There is literally nothing we can learn from NZ on this, given the immense differences in population size, geography and movement of people in and out of the country.
I know it’s desperately fashionable to beatify Jacinda Ardern these days but frankly, she’s playing the very lucky hand she was dealt, and that’s all.
|
I'll think you find a) i can, and b) i have.
1) If we're one of the best connected countries in the world then we should have acted quicker on inbound flights, temperature scanning, forcing people to self quarantine. Things that New Zealand did.
2) New Zealand blocked all inbound air traffic apart from repatriation flights. The UK not doing it because the virus is already circulating.
3) New Zealand, Greece locked down quickly, and hard. with more restrictions on movement.
4) New Zealand instigated mass contact tracing. The UK government abandoned it because it was 'difficult'
If you don't think that the UK government can learn from other nations then, that's a pretty immature attitude to take.
The UK did far too little, too late. We're now seeing the evidence of that played out.
__________________
Nerves of steel, heart of gold, knob of butter......
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 20:30
|
#2976
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,460
|
Re: Coronavirus
The New York Times has got hold of an internal CDC presentation, that has some scary (US) forecasts.
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/u...#link-7b42d0f5
Quote:
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double the current number of about 1,750.
The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.
|
That’s scary, if the projections are accurate.
__________________
Thank you for calling the Abyss.
If you have called to scream, please press 1 to be transferred to the Void, or press 2 to begin your stare.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 20:39
|
#2977
|
The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,980
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
I'll think you find a) i can, and b) i have.
|
Which, whilst trying to sound clever, comes across as inept.
Quote:
If you don't think that the UK government can learn from other nations then, that's a pretty immature attitude to take.
|
If you think U.K. = NZ and/ or Greece is a pretty amateurish attitude to take.
Quote:
The UK did far too little, too late. We're now seeing the evidence of that played out.
|
Obviously speaking as someone with viral pandemic emergency planning experience? <removed>
__________________
The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
Last edited by Paul; 04-05-2020 at 21:42.
Reason: No need for the snipe
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 21:36
|
#2978
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,460
|
Re: Coronavirus
Any more personal sniping, and infractions will be issued - people have been warned before.
__________________
Thank you for calling the Abyss.
If you have called to scream, please press 1 to be transferred to the Void, or press 2 to begin your stare.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
04-05-2020, 22:43
|
#2979
|
Trollsplatter
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 38,047
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
But playing it well... 
|
She is, but I think it’s fair to say she’s playing whist whereas some other, larger, more centrally connected countries are playing bridge.
|
|
|
05-05-2020, 09:32
|
#2980
|
Rise above the players
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Wokingham
Services: 2 V6 boxes with 360 software, Now, ITVX, Amazon, Netflix, Apple+, Disney+, Paramount+, YouTube Music
Posts: 15,032
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees
Now, for some clarity post the sentence paragraph before this sentence 'Some accused the government in Athens of not just entrusting the handling of the pandemic to scientists, but of handing over responsibility too.'
We've read the same article and I know why you missed it out.....
---------- Post added at 19:48 ---------- Previous post was at 19:41 ----------
I'll think you find a) i can, and b) i have.
1) If we're one of the best connected countries in the world then we should have acted quicker on inbound flights, temperature scanning, forcing people to self quarantine. Things that New Zealand did.
2) New Zealand blocked all inbound air traffic apart from repatriation flights. The UK not doing it because the virus is already circulating.
3) New Zealand, Greece locked down quickly, and hard. with more restrictions on movement.
4) New Zealand instigated mass contact tracing. The UK government abandoned it because it was 'difficult'
If you don't think that the UK government can learn from other nations then, that's a pretty immature attitude to take.
The UK did far too little, too late. We're now seeing the evidence of that played out.
|
The government have been acting on the advice of the scientists throughout. Had they not done so, you would have been the first to criticise.
Where do you think the phrase 'herd immunity' came from? The government didn't make it up. Had Labour been in government and done exactly the same things, you would be full of praise, no doubt.
Criticism is all very well when deserved, but criticism for the sake of it is not cricket, old chap.
|
|
|
05-05-2020, 09:52
|
#2981
|
cf.mega poster
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Half in the corporeal, half in the etheral
Posts: 37,149
|
Re: Coronavirus
The government may well be “acting” on the advice of the scientists, that does not necessarily mean they are doing as the scientists say. The difference is in the clever wording.
I’m not saying they’re ignoring scientists but there’s no doubt this government (as likely with any) is “following” whatever advice makes them look like they’ve been “successful”.
And now we have the highest death toll in Europe. So not really a success in my opinion.
__________________
From Jim Cornette:
“Ty, Fy, bye”
|
|
|
05-05-2020, 10:02
|
#2982
|
Trollsplatter
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 38,047
|
Re: Coronavirus
So the absurdity of assuming that geography is irrelevant goes on.
The variables at play here are staggering in their complexity. Population size, mobility and age are major factors. The balance of the domestic economy, its manufacturing capacity and adaptability are also relevant. Whether or not you have a significant first or second generation immigrant population comes into it, as does whether any of your airports are major international hubs. What international business is done in a country and the amount of international travel that prompts, and how wealthy, in global terms, your population is, also feeding into the international travel statistics - these are also significant. And, of course, the tactics and timing deployed against the virus by the authorities. Which, tediously, seems to be the only variable anyone here wants to obsess over.
Geography, people. Get a map out and have a look. This country is literally at the middle of the fecking world. If you don't think that makes a difference, then there's no hope for any of us, because for us to rebuild our economy once this is over is going to take a lot more creative thinking and adaptability, from every last one of us, than is evident in this discussion.
Rant over, I have an actual essay to write.
Last edited by Chris; 05-05-2020 at 10:07.
|
|
|
05-05-2020, 10:20
|
#2983
|
067
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Middlesbrough
Age: 49
Services: Many
Posts: 4,985
|
Re: Coronavirus
Quote:
Originally Posted by OLD BOY
The government have been acting on the advice of the scientists throughout. Had they not done so, you would have been the first to criticise.
Where do you think the phrase 'herd immunity' came from? The government didn't make it up. Had Labour been in government and done exactly the same things, you would be full of praise, no doubt.
Criticism is all very well when deserved, but criticism for the sake of it is not cricket, old chap.
|
1) I know where herd immunity comes from, so no need to patronise. Interestingly the scientists were the first to say allow herd immunity and then quickly backed out of that when they saw the projected deaths for allowing that method to continue.
2) I'm not a historical labour voter or supporter, You don't know me well enough to make that assumption So, sssshhhhh
Criticisms are justified at both the scientists AND the government for the way that the pandemic has been handled in this country.
---------- Post added at 10:15 ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Russ
The government may well be “acting” on the advice of the scientists, that does not necessarily mean they are doing as the scientists say. The difference is in the clever wording.
I’m not saying they’re ignoring scientists but there’s no doubt this government (as likely with any) is “following” whatever advice makes them look like they’ve been “successful”.
And now we have the highest death toll in Europe. So not really a success in my opinion.
|
Quite.
---------- Post added at 10:20 ---------- Previous post was at 10:15 ----------
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
So the absurdity of assuming that geography is irrelevant goes on.
The variables at play here are staggering in their complexity. Population size, mobility and age are major factors. The balance of the domestic economy, its manufacturing capacity and adaptability are also relevant. Whether or not you have a significant first or second generation immigrant population comes into it, as does whether any of your airports are major international hubs. What international business is done in a country and the amount of international travel that prompts, and how wealthy, in global terms, your population is, also feeding into the international travel statistics - these are also significant. And, of course, the tactics and timing deployed against the virus by the authorities. Which, tediously, seems to be the only variable anyone here wants to obsess over.
Geography, people. Get a map out and have a look. This country is literally at the middle of the fecking world. If you don't think that makes a difference, then there's no hope for any of us, because for us to rebuild our economy once this is over is going to take a lot more creative thinking and adaptability, from every last one of us, than is evident in this discussion.
Rant over, I have an actual essay to write.
|
So, heres the thing, Whilst what you say holds merit to a degree. The variable that you claim people are obsessing over is the only variable to which we have a degree of control.
it's therefore blatantly bloody obvious, that this is the area that will be focussed on.
__________________
Nerves of steel, heart of gold, knob of butter......
|
|
|
05-05-2020, 10:46
|
#2984
|
Virgin Media Employee
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Winchester
Services: Staff MyRates
BB: VM 1Gb
TV: VM XL
Phone : VM XL
Posts: 3,271
|
Re: Coronavirus
New Zealand is probably not a good comparison simply because of geography. It is isolated, split into two distinct islands so controls on incoming and movement are likely easier. It is also likely that isolating self has been practised and planned for other situations so they could have mechanisms in place already to enact them.
We still have coastguard picking up people trying to get into Britain by boat so yes we can close borders and be an island but we are closer to other countries than New Zealand.
New Zealand has a total population of 4 million - less than London alone so surely contacts are more easily traced and dealt with. And how do populations behave? Did New Zealanders see the problem coming and prepare themselves BEFORE government made any pronouncements. In the UK we could see there was an issue, it was suggested we stayed at home but we saw the biggest numbers at some beauty spots recorded as if our idea of preparations was to get out and enjoy now, then hoard up and force government to bring in stricter enforcement.
We also need to take into account if NZ has mostly had the "A" form of the virus that some figures show to have a lesser impact.
---
On the issue of ethnicity and poverty in the statistics it is hard to separate out the factor as the press want to but if poorer and non-white families live in more multi-generational households whether forced to or by choice/culture that will have an impact. It is worth study and we should work to lessen poverty and the impacts of poverty but where groups choose to live larger households then infectious diseases will likely hit them more.
__________________
I work for VMO2 but reply here in my own right. Any help or advice is made on a best-effort basis. No comments construe any obligation on VMO2 or its employees.
|
|
|
05-05-2020, 11:18
|
#2985
|
laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 68
Services: Premiere Collection
Posts: 43,460
|
Re: Coronavirus
The Register (in amongst its standard snark and Government bashing) makes a good point about the UK's tracking app - it probably won't work.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2020/0...ronavirus_app/
Quote:
But there is a problem with the NHS's approach: it probably won't that well work on your phone, and probably won't be terribly accurate at measuring the spread of the virus.
That's because the proposed system will only work in the way the UK government claims it will if everyone does what it says: a classic failing of the Whitehall mindset that stretches back to the World War One trenches and further back still to the days of Great Houses and Men Who Knew Better.
Despite what the NCSC has continued to imply, the app will not, as it stands, work all the time on iOS nor Android since version 8. The operating systems won't allow the tracing application to broadcast its ID via Bluetooth to surrounding devices when it's running in the background and not in active use. Apple's iOS forbids it, and newer Google Android versions limit it to a few minutes after the app falls into the background.
That means that unless people have the NHS app running in the foreground and their phones awake most of the time, the fundamental principle underpinning the entire system – that phones detect each other – won’t work.
It will work if people open the app and leave it open and the phone unlocked. But if you close it and forget to reopen it, or the phone falls asleep, the app will not broadcast its ID and no other phones around you will register that you've been close by. There is even a handy video of someone in Australia showing this (Australia has gone for a similar system with its COVIDSafe app.)
We cannot state it plainer: on iPhones, apps cannot send out their IDs via Bluetooth when the software is in the background, and on newer Android builds, IDs cannot be transmitted after a few minutes in the background. And Apple and Google have refused to allow the tracing app to send out IDs in the background.
The NHS has insisted its engineers have worked around this problem "sufficiently well" by waking the app after it detects itself running on a nearby phone emitting an ID: the software is blocked from sending out its ID when in the background but it can passively listen for IDs of apps still allowed to broadcast. However, this assumes there are a sufficient number of phones running the tracing app nearby still broadcasting to keep enough people's apps awake: there needs to be a critical mass of users while we're all supposed to be socially distancing. If two or more people pass each other and their apps have stopped broadcasting, the software will never know they came in contact.
And it could be a battery hog, which may make people leave the app off, preventing the app on other phones from waking up.
|
__________________
Thank you for calling the Abyss.
If you have called to scream, please press 1 to be transferred to the Void, or press 2 to begin your stare.
If my post is in bold and this colour, it's a Moderator Request.
|
|
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
All times are GMT +1. The time now is 11:57.
|