Coronavirus (OLD)

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Yeah the lad's got potential

He has been their best perfomer at the Covid 19 daily briefings along with Whitty and Valance.

[jfman]

And while we try not to get political in the coronavirus thread (ha ha ha) that’s danger for the Labour Party. Hancock is going under the bus, evidently Murdoch has the knives out for Johnson preferring Gove. However worst case scenario Sunak will emerge unscathed, and popular, and would not need a general election until 2024.

[heero_yuy]

Quote from The Sun:

Prof Karol Sikora, a leading cancer specialist, warned that thousands more people would die of the disease [cancer] and heart problems if the country was kept locked up.

He is urging ministers to allow small businesses, shops and garden centres to open first, the Telegraph reported.

He said: "As long as we don't see a second wave of the virus then we should plan for full operation by the end of May, including opening schools and even bars and pubs with social distancing."

Prof Sikora added: "I would be aggressive about it. If we don't do that more people will die from cancer and heart disease."

It's a tricky balancing act corona deaths vs other deaths due to the lockdown and subsequent economic crash, particularly suicides as people loose their homes and jobs.

(Original Telegraph story is behind paywall)

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mr K

We have one of the worst death rates in the World, the real number is likely to be closer to 40,000, given they are only giving hospital deaths. We were given plenty of warning but were too slow to react. The PPE shambles and running down of the NHS over the last 10 years has hit us hard. Getting the virus doesn't make Boris a martyr, or mean he isn't incompetent. . It will take decades for this country to recover, other countries will recover quicker. The fallout from this will end many political careers.

The number of deaths in care homes was advised today as being at least 5,500 by 24 April by Nick Stripe, head of the health analysis and life events division at the ONS

In care homes we are now seeing over three times more deaths in total in care homes, in that last week, than we saw four weeks previously. And 28% of those deaths are from Covid.
Now, we’ve also taken data from the Care Quality Commission over the last few days. The Care Quality Commission collects death notifications of all deaths of care home residents. And we have been able to compare that data against our death registrations data, and it’s a good match.
So from the 10 to 17 April, for example, we can see a very close match.
If you take that data, we can see the Care Quality Commission has figures for England of 4,343 deaths in care homes between 10 and 24 April, so much more current, that’s last Friday.
And we know that we had 1,000 deaths registered in care homes prior to 10 April.
So in total we are looking at around at least 5,500 deaths in care homes in England related to Covid by 24 April.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-who-have-died

[jfman]

The UK reported 4,583 new infections yesterday, roughly the same as on 1st April. Within two weeks we were at 1,000 hospital deaths a day.

Does the Professor have any meaningful strategy for keeping the demand for health services below NHS capacity or should we just “see what happens” when you put immune system compromised individuals in virus riddled hospitals?

[tweetiepooh]

More infections detected because more screening?

You have to have some hope. If there isn't a hope of normality in any form from the current then people will lose patience and the general compliance we have at the moment will go end and likely we get stronger enforcement of stricter rules.

And again the politicos/epidemiologists etc will look at a big picture and say that n thousand deaths out of n million is acceptable and manageable compared to the financial/societal costs and the impact of those. They are also well aware that every single life is worth saving at whatever cost. Now you try to balance that out.

Finally before the lock down we were requested to self regulate, to not congregate etc but too many people didn't. Same with restrictions on certain goods - we were told there is no shortage, no need to stockpile but people didn't.

[gba93]

Could someone explain why Sir Kier is respecting the 11am 1 minute silence at 11:05?

The infection rate has never been a very good indicator of the spread of the virus in the UK because testing rates have been so low. Now testing rates are being ramped up, obviously the infection rate is going to seem to go up. As a means of detecting whether infection is spreading again it is not presently very useful. It will only become useful if we can sustain a large and fairly even rate of testing for a couple of weeks at least. Until then, the only fairly consistent, reliable indicator we have is deaths reported in hospital, which has been recorded with sufficient similarity across the country from the outset.

---------- Post added at 12:08 ---------- Previous post was at 12:06 ----------

Originally Posted by gba93

Could someone explain why Sir Kier is respecting the 11am 1 minute silence at 11:05?

I'm going to be charitable and suggest his photographer was also respecting the silence at actual 11am ...

We used to regularly 'stunt up' a photo after the fact on the papers (Local and regional press have rarely been able to get a photographer on scene quickly for anything). Rookie error having a clock in the background though.

[tweetiepooh]

Originally Posted by gba93

Could someone explain why Sir Kier is respecting the 11am 1 minute silence at 11:05?

Clock fast? I didn't even realise it was today.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Chris

The infection rate has never been a very good indicator of the spread of the virus in the UK because testing rates have been so low. Now testing rates are being ramped up, obviously the infection rate is going to seem to go up. As a means of detecting whether infection is spreading again it is not presently very useful. It will only become useful if we can sustain a large and fairly even rate of testing for a couple of weeks at least. Until then, the only fairly consistent, reliable indicator we have is deaths reported in hospital, which has been recorded with sufficient similarity across the country from the outset.

<SNIP>

As I've said in past posts, the death figures are the cast iron stats as to the state of the virus.

That said, the figures based on new tests should now be normalised (a well understood statistical technique) so that they can be represented from the start in the new normal.

Also it is now clear that comparison with other countries is meaningless except, perhaps, the death count.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by gba93

Could someone explain why Sir Kier is respecting the 11am 1 minute silence at 11:05?

Lol, suspect the clock is fast.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Lol, suspect the clock is fast.

https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-tha...es-become-weak

... muddies the waters!

Most wall clocks that run on one AA or C cell use digital circuitry inside that are regulated by precision quartz oscillators.

The oscillators are extremely stable, keeping accurate time pulses that move the clock hands one tick every second. and the accuracy is such that it gains or loses just a few seconds per day… typical accuracies are 20 seconds or so out of a million seconds. This can be caused by temperature changes and by voltage changes/fluctuations.

So for the purposes of most people the quartz will maintain its accuracy until the battery dies, within what a human can tell.

Still if the battery is at the very end of life the inaccuracies might conceivably go as high as 500 parts per million - ten times its normal range of inaccuracy (about a minute per day) but not noticeable to most any human, and the clock would just stop real soon afterwards. And there’s no telling if it would be faster or slower.

Now, with precision electronics instruments I have, sure I can easily see a crystal that far off. But you’ll never notice it. By the way, battery operated watches have the same circuits in them… same behavior.

So the answer to the question is:

It might lose accuracy when it gets very low battery but the amount is so small you probably can’t tell at all you cant predict slower or faster

[jfman]

So you’re saying the clock stopped last night?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

So you’re saying the clock stopped last night?

I'll do a jfman here (or is it an OB)?!

Where have I said or implied that the clock stopped 11 hour and 55 minutes earlier?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by gba93

Could someone explain why Sir Kier is respecting the 11am 1 minute silence at 11:05?

Maybe he was doing a 5-minute silence. You know, to show how much more caring he was than everyone else.