PM Boris forms a government

[denphone]

The current odds on favourite to take over the role as speaker.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk...9Cwhen-speaker

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

Jump before you’re pushed. A pragmatic solution to his impending demise.

Gets a book out and onto the speaking circuits with the best Brexit gossip.

I think it's likely No 10 will make clear they'll challenge any Speaker put in before an election.

[1andrew1]

More Project Reality - British battery manufacturer will have to open factory in EU, not UK, in the event of no deal

Oxford-based Yasa, which has just raised £18m from two new investors, is in advanced negotiations with a major European brand that will require it to build a new facility to meet demand if successful.
Chief executive Chris Harris told the FT the business will be forced to put the site in Europe if there is a bad deal or no-deal scenario, because its European customers will not be happy to pay the cost of tariffs.
“That will be in the UK if it will come up with a decent deal, otherwise we will have no choice but to put that in Europe,” he said.
“Where we see our opportunities, they are all in Europe, far more so than the US or China. It’s where all of our growth will come from in the next decade.”
“Emotionally we want production to remain in the UK, and we want that wealth to remain in the UK, but we have to be driven by business sense.”

https://www.ft.com/content/6f34d594-...7-807ebd53ab77

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ments-49636684 @19:28

Earlier, as he was summing up, Michael Gove said the government is "committed" to sharing as much of Operation Yellowhammer as it can and would publish a revised version of the document.

However, he stressed Operation Yellowhammer was not "an impact assessment or a likely scenario".

I wonder what the Government is basing its planning and mitigating actions on, then?

Having been involved in very many risk assessment/mitigation efforts, you assess what the upcoming scenarios are, what are the risks arising from these scenarios, score these risks/issues by likelihood and impact, and agree what mitigating actions/plans can/need to be put in place to reduce/remove the negative impacts - if Yellowhammer is not being used for these purposes, what is it being used for, and what planning/impact assessments/likely scenarios are being used?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Dave42

very big liar just like Johnson

I think that is a key problem for the UK. People said, "All politicians lie, BoJo is no different."
The reality is that his lies are in a different league, which is why The Times sacked him. They may work successfully for a short campaign like Brexit but in the medium and long term, they tarnish your reputation. How can you negotiate with someone who's inherently untrustworthy?

---------- Post added at 20:01 ---------- Previous post was at 19:59 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ments-49636684 @19:28

I wonder what the Government is basing its planning and mitigating actions on, then?

Having been involved in very many risk assessment/mitigation efforts, you assess what the upcoming scenarios are, what are the risks arising from these scenarios, score these risks/issues by likelihood and impact, and agree what mitigating actions/plans can/need to be put in place to reduce/remove the negative impacts - if Yellowhammer is not being used for these purposes, what is it being used for, and what planning/impact assessments/likely scenarios are being used?

I'm not sure that I would trust Michael "Pinnochio" Gove these days. He's been taking honesty lessons from his boss.

---------- Post added at 20:10 ---------- Previous post was at 20:01 ----------

A good day for democracy.

The government is defeated on Dominic Grieve’s humble address, which calls on ministers to publish corrrespondence over suspending Parliament, and no-deal Brexit planning papers.

The vote passes by 311 to 302 - a majority of nine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-p...ments-49636684

[jfman]

ERG members now talking up the positives of a Northern Ireland only backstop. It'd win a Northern Ireland only referendum.

In fairness, there's no Ireland in the word Brexit.

Originally Posted by jfman

ERG members now talking up the positives of a Northern Ireland only backstop. It'd win a Northern Ireland only referendum.

In fairness, there's no Ireland in the word Brexit.

Shouldn't think the DUP would be too impressed with that proposition.

Originally Posted by Hugh

Shouldn't think the DUP would be too impressed with that proposition.

Given the parliamentary arithmetic, the DUP are no longer of critical importance.

If a deal of any kind comes before the Commons before 31 October, the rump of the parliamentary Tory party can be relied on to vote for it, but what everyone will really be looking at is whether Labour does. Labour has to, really; if it doesn’t, it is going to be absolutely slaughtered in northern England at the election they have now publicly accepted has to follow after 31 October comes and goes. Not many Brexit-voting natural labour voters will be persuaded by the nuances they put forward as justification for refusing to back the WA earlier this year. Labour simply has to back a deal.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

ERG members now talking up the positives of a Northern Ireland only backstop. It'd win a Northern Ireland only referendum.

Ironic considering that was what the EU proposed originally, only for Theresa May to negotiate it to a UK-wide backstop, a big concession on the EU's part. So can't see the EU having a problem with this.
It's whether Jeremy will bail BoJo out considering all the bad blood between them. Perhaps the chicken jibes weren't such a good idea after all.

[jfman]

If my calculations are right if the ERG backed the third vote on TMs deal it would have passed.

Chris is on the money here. TMs future was tied to the DUP (in that she couldn’t lead the Tories into another GE). Boris isn’t tied in the same way. He wants a general election. After he delivers any kind of Brexit he must fancy his chances to win a decent majority.

---------- Post added at 21:42 ---------- Previous post was at 21:39 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Ironic considering that was what the EU proposed originally, only for Theresa May to negotiate it to a UK-wide backstop, a big concession on the EU's part. So can't see the EU having a problem with this.
It's whether Jeremy will bail BoJo out considering all the bad blood between them. Perhaps the chicken jibes weren't such a good idea after all.

I think the Conservatives could squeeze this through without the Labour Party.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

I think the Conservatives could squeeze this through without the Labour Party.

The deputy chair of the ERG has previously said that simply removing the backstop would still not cut the mustard for them.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-28/...deal-backstop/

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The deputy chair of the ERG has previously said that simply removing the backstop would still not cut the mustard for them.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-28/...deal-backstop/

I think the ‘risk’ is that most will follow Mogg/Johnson and not Francois when push came to shove. A pre-Brexit General Election might not give a desirable outcome, and there’s the danger of no Brexit at all from there.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The deputy chair of the ERG has previously said that simply removing the backstop would still not cut the mustard for them.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-08-28/...deal-backstop/

If the Tory rump, minus the ERG, votes for any deal Boris brings back from Brussels, and Labour sits on its hands to try to keep all its supporters happy, then the vote will pass even without Bill Cash etc. Incidentally, not all the ERG will always vote the same way, and at least one of them will vote with the government as he is now in the government...

NI-Only backstop has been the most likely outcome for a while now I think so I wouldn't be surprised. It gets us back to what the EU originally proposed as well.