Government & Post Election Discussion

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Maggy J

Basically in charge of vocational training IE apprenticeships..

Ah well it's young people, they don't matter anyway.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mr K

Ah well it's young people, they don't matter anyway.

Aren't they all in university getting into a lifetime of debt?

[denphone]

Conservatives Commons majority now down to one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49200636

The Liberal Democrats have won the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, leaving new PM Boris Johnson with a Commons working majority of just one.

Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority to beat incumbent Conservative Chris Davies by 1,425 votes.

Political analyst Prof Roger Awan-Scully, from Cardiff University, said: "Labour need to look very closely at this result. Everything points to not just tactical voting for the Lib Dems but also dissatisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn and [First Minister] Mark Drakeford".

But using the Remainer formula from European Parliamentary Elections, if we add the parties vote share together that want Brexit, it’s 50.3%. Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP.

Closer than expected probably because Boris has seen a substantial polling bump. The Tories would have won had they not put up the same guy who had been convicted and recalled IMO. Pretty stunning contempt to the electorate from the local party which has cost them the seat.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mick

But using the Remainer formula from European Parliamentary Elections, if we add the parties vote share together that want Brexit, it’s 50.3%. Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP.

l will leave the maths to you.

---------- Post added at 07:02 ---------- Previous post was at 07:00 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Closer than expected probably because Boris has seen a substantial polling bump. The Tories would have won had they not put up the same guy who had been convicted and recalled IMO. Pretty stunning contempt to the electorate from the local party which has cost them the seat.

Pretty staggering that they put up the same discredited candidate when it was as clear as glass that any other decent candidate would have retained the seat for the Conservatives.

[OLD BOY]

The interesting thing here, with Labour's vote so depressed, is whether Labour would still attempt to put forward a vote of no confidence in the government. The Corbynistas must realise that they will be decimated at the next election now unless they do something drastic, such as dumping their current leader.

And if another party (eg Lib Dems) call for that vote of no confidence, which way would Labour MPs vote?

Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

Boris needs to play this very carefully.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

Closer than expected probably because Boris has seen a substantial polling bump. The Tories would have won had they not put up the same guy who had been convicted and recalled IMO. Pretty stunning contempt to the electorate from the local party which has cost them the seat.

Defies logic. Why risk anything when the majority is so slim? Plain entitled arrogance from the candidate and Party.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The interesting thing here, with Labour's vote so depressed, is whether Labour would still attempt to put forward a vote of no confidence in the government. The Corbynistas must realise that they will be decimated at the next election now unless they do something drastic, such as dumping their current leader.

This isn't really an area Labour was ever competitive in and they didn't put much into it since they knew they would lose. It's hard to read too much into it.

---------- Post added at 08:46 ---------- Previous post was at 08:44 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Defies logic. Why risk anything when the majority is so slim? Plain entitled arrogance from the candidate and Party.

The majority was ok but it wasn't about 'risking' it. They were always suspected to lose this seat. If anything it appears more a case of them writing it off with this selection rather than assuming they would win either way.

What's changed is a swing back to the Tories from the Brexit Party relative to the EU elections and national polling which they clearly didn't think would happen. Had they approached it differently they might have held the seat.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Damien

This isn't really an area Labour was ever competitive in and they didn't put much into it since they knew they would lose. It's hard to read too much into it.

Maybe so, but the EU vote was spectacularly dreadful for both main parties. The indications are that the Conservatives are making up lost ground now with their new leader, and a landslide vote for Brexit at the next election is now unlikely, so their vote will not be so badly split.

Labour, however, is in great trouble, with the prospect of many of their members deserting them for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

They may have wanted that vote of no confidence before, but now they must surely be reconsidering.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Mick

But using the Remainer formula from European Parliamentary Elections, if we add the parties vote share together that want Brexit, it’s 50.3%. Tories, Brexit Party and UKIP.

You should add a ridiculous set of graphs and show the dodgy maths if your doing it properly

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Maybe so, but the EU vote was spectacularly dreadful for both main parties. The indications are that the Conservatives are making up lost ground now with their new leader, and a landslide vote for Brexit at the next election is now unlikely, so their vote will not be so badly split.

The EU vote seems to split along the EU vote from 2016. I agree though that the Tories should be happy with this result but also kicking themselves they really they could have won it....

Labour, however, is in great trouble, with the prospect of many of their members deserting them for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

They are.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Damien

The EU vote seems to split along the EU vote from 2016. I agree though that the Tories should be happy with this result but also kicking themselves they really they could have won it....



They are.

Given the smaller party's didn't stand it makes the lib dems look weak,in a general election they would have to stand alone as i doubt the other partys would sacrifice seats.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The interesting thing here, with Labour's vote so depressed, is whether Labour would still attempt to put forward a vote of no confidence in the government. The Corbynistas must realise that they will be decimated at the next election now unless they do something drastic, such as dumping their current leader.

And if another party (eg Lib Dems) call for that vote of no confidence, which way would Labour MPs vote?

Turkeys and Christmas come to mind.

Boris needs to play this very carefully.

My understanding of the rules is that only the official opposition, Labour, can call for a vote of no confidence in the government.
Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Labour, however, is in great trouble, with the prospect of many of their members deserting them for the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.

They may have wanted that vote of no confidence before, but now they must surely be reconsidering.

The poorer the Labour Party performs, the stronger it appears is Momentum's grip on it.