Brexit (Old) - Page 590

jfman · 18-03-2019, 20:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The chances of a no deal Brexit seem to have shot up.

I wouldn’t say so. Parliament has ruled it out, May doesn’t want the blame for it and has royal prerogative to extend if she wishes. It’d wind up in the courts, but she’d be on reasonably steady ground. In as far as such a thing exists.

OLD BOY · 18-03-2019, 20:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

I wouldn’t say so. Parliament has ruled it out, May doesn’t want the blame for it and has royal prerogative to extend if she wishes. It’d wind up in the courts, but she’d be on reasonably steady ground. In as far as such a thing exists.

The way things stand, we are no longer in the EU from 29 March. That is the existing law. And without the EU's agreement to an extension (we've not even made a case for it yet, let alone have it considered), we crash out on that date.

I see no sign yet of an Act of Parliament to change UK law on the matter, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Why do you think Jacob Rees-Mogg has that smug expression on his face?

9 working days to go and counting.....

Mr K · 18-03-2019, 20:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The way things stand, we are no longer in the EU from 29 March. That is the existing law. And without the EU's agreement to an extension (we've not even made a case for it yet, let alone have it considered), we crash out on that date.

I see no sign yet of an Act of Parliament to change UK law on the matter, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Why do you think Jacob Rees-Mogg has that smug expression on his face?

9 working days to go and counting.....

Because he's a simple deluded fool ?

1andrew1 · 18-03-2019, 20:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The chances of a no deal Brexit seem to have shot up.

Nope. EU makes a tiny concession, final vote, May loses it, A50 extension enacted, election, BoJo in power.

jfman · 18-03-2019, 20:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The way things stand, we are no longer in the EU from 29 March. That is the existing law. And without the EU's agreement to an extension (we've not even made a case for it yet, let alone have it considered), we crash out on that date.

I see no sign yet of an Act of Parliament to change UK law on the matter, so I wouldn't be so sure.

Why do you think Jacob Rees-Mogg has that smug expression on his face?

9 working days to go and counting.....

Theresa May (arguably) doesn’t have to get an Act of Parliament to change the date. International treaties are the perogative of the Government. It’d be an argument in court, but enough time would pass that we de facto extend, if not de jure. Enough time for her, and the EU, to find a solution.

1andrew1 · 18-03-2019, 20:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr K

Because he's a simple deluded fool ?

He's made £7m since Brexit vote. I would be grinning like that for just a fraction of his good fortune.

**Chris** · 18-03-2019, 20:47

In fact, it transpires that the EU Withdrawal Act contains within it the provisions to extend the 29 March leaving date. The date can be extended by a Minister presenting a statutory instrument before Parliament. It’s a relatively straightforward procedure. Only the government can do it, mind - for parliament itself to change the date would require primary legislation to amend the Act.

OLD BOY · 18-03-2019, 20:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

Theresa May (arguably) doesn’t have to get an Act of Parliament to change the date. International treaties are the perogative of the Government. It’d be an argument in court, but enough time would pass that we de facto extend, if not de jure. Enough time for her, and the EU, to find a solution.

In view of the tight spot TM is in, and the prospect of never getting her
withdrawal agreement accepted by the House, she could ask the EU to agree to a protection period as we crash out of the EU and prorogue Parliament immediately, resuming on 1 April (good date!) to enact the necessary legislation to come into effect at the end of the protection period.

Annoying for some....

**Damien** · 18-03-2019, 21:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

In fact, it transpires that the EU Withdrawal Act contains within it the provisions to extend the 29 March leaving date. The date can be extended by a Minister presenting a statutory instrument before Parliament. It’s a relatively straightforward procedure. Only the government can do it, mind - for parliament itself to change the date would require primary legislation to amend the Act.

How did that go unnoticed.

1andrew1 · 18-03-2019, 21:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

In view of the tight spot TM is in, and the prospect of never getting her
withdrawal agreement accepted by the House, she could ask the EU to agree to a protection period as we crash out of the EU and prorogue Parliament immediately, resuming on 1 April (good date!) to enact the necessary legislation to come into effect at the end of the protection period.

Annoying for some....

My predictions:
An extension is happening, come what may.
A second referendum won't ever happen.
No deal won't ever happen.
If Brexit occurs, which I think it will, we will keep close to or in the single market and customs union. No politician let alone the ERG will tell you this but that's what Parliament wants but by the time the negotiations are concluded, the current set of politicians won't be driving things.

**Hugh** · 18-03-2019, 21:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mick

Clue, they can’t because they are not the chair and neither have they playing games!

Clue, I count calling a motion of "no confidence" for TM, and having their own "Star Chamber" of lawyers as playing games.

jfman · 18-03-2019, 21:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damien

How did that go unnoticed.

It would need approval by both Houses of Parliament, however it would be voted upon on a yea or nay basis. It couldn’t be amended in any way.

1andrew1 · 18-03-2019, 21:26

Thought I'd have a quick look back on the first couple of pages of this thread to see what we were all talking about back in Summer 2018 given that today marks another milestone in the process. These three quotes, each anonymised to protect the innocent, stood out for me.

Quote:

Theresa May and her warring cabinet are split from top to bottom with Michael Gove and Boris sticking the knife into her at every opportunity.

Quote:

The Cabinet is united in most respects, but there are a few sticking points which are matters of detail and require careful consideration.

Quote:

The only solutions available are 'maximum facilitation' or 'no deal'. That is the real choice. The EU doesn't want a 'no deal' because the EU has an €80bn annual trade surplus with Britain. So it doesn't really take a lot of brain power to work out the best option both for Britain and the EU.

Jimmy-J · 18-03-2019, 21:40

May...

'This Is a Large Crisis'. A large crisis requires a large plan. Get me two pencils and a pair of underpants.”

We need a Lord Flashheart type to sort this mess out. WOOOOFF!!

Pierre · 18-03-2019, 21:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

In fact, it transpires that the EU Withdrawal Act contains within it the provisions to extend the 29 March leaving date. The date can be extended by a Minister presenting a statutory instrument before Parliament. It’s a relatively straightforward procedure. Only the government can do it, mind - for parliament itself to change the date would require primary legislation to amend the Act.

Indeed, but it still needs agreement from the EU27 and much like Speaker Berclown threw his oar in today, the EU27 might want to see a bit more of a discernible difference of what is on offer. The deal, as they so strongly assert, is non-negotiable. So as Parliament keep voting it down (and if they do a third time) why would the EU be inclined to extend, i suppose an extra 3 months would help prepare for no deal.

We are at an impasse. Parliament don’t want the deal, EU wont change the deal.