Brexit (Old)

[jfman]

Describing emotion driven nationalist politics is irrational compared to say, economics, is an entirely appropriate in these circumstances.

If the glorious future was all sugar and candy surely the Government and Bank of England would be first to crow about it?

[OLD BOY]

[Deleted post]

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Describing emotion driven nationalist politics is irrational compared to say, economics, is an entirely appropriate in these circumstances.

If the glorious future was all sugar and candy surely the Government and Bank of England would be first to crow about it?

What's that got to do with anything.

Carney got it wrong when he joined Project Fear in 2016. So it is right to be suspicious of his utterances now as to what will happen over the coming years. Too many variables and it doesn't take into account what our business enterprises will achieve. The guvmin stats assume 100% reduction in immigration!

Furthermore, when the stupid guvmin is spinning the "worse off" argument in a skewed way.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162

The guvmin admits that the UK economy will grow under all scenarios, but in a no deal scenario, it will grow 9.3% less than it would have done had we remained. In other words, the price of no deal would be that by 2030 the economy will have grown by 90.7% of what it would have if the predictions were correct. I'll buy that.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Describing emotion driven nationalist politics is irrational compared to say, economics, is an entirely appropriate in these circumstances.

If the glorious future was all sugar and candy surely the Government and Bank of England would be first to crow about it?

So I take it that you think Brexiters are 'emotion driven' and 'irrational'? How condescending!

[jfman]

At a cost of £150bn?

You may be fine but for many of our poorest communities paying that for a racially pure England isn’t going to cut it.

Your calculation of 90.7% is flawed. Economic growth forecasts use the current value of 100% as a baseline. So you’d be claiming that it’d be 9% growth vs 10% growth, which isn’t the reality.

Politics is why a Conservative Party who delivered a referendum, effectively delivered Brexit, would grow about a glorious future. The good reason they don’t is that there isn’t one.

---------- Post added at 18:39 ---------- Previous post was at 18:38 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

So I take it that you think Brexiters are 'emotion driven' and 'irrational'? How condescending!

No, that’s not what I said. I’d be happy to hear economic arguments in favour of Brexit, indeed I’m sure there must be one out there? Sadly it’s drowned out by nationalism and xenophobia.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

[COLOR="Blue"]What's that got to do with anything.

Carney got it wrong when he joined Project Fear in 2016. So it is right to be suspicious of his utterances now as to what will happen over the coming years. Too many variables and it doesn't take into account what our business enterprises will achieve. The guvmin stats assume 100% reduction in immigration!

I don't think they assumed a 100% reduction in immigration but that emigration would exceed immigration. This would cause a '100%' reduction in net migration but not a 100% reduction in immigration.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

At a cost of £150bn?

You may be fine but for many of our poorest communities paying that for a racially pure England isn’t going to cut it.

Your calculation of 90.7% is flawed. Economic growth forecasts use the current value of 100% as a baseline. So you’d be claiming that it’d be 9% growth vs 10% growth, which isn’t the reality.

Politics is why a Conservative Party who delivered a referendum, effectively delivered Brexit, would grow about a glorious future. The good reason they don’t is that there isn’t one.

---------- Post added at 18:39 ---------- Previous post was at 18:38 ----------



No, that’s not what I said. I’d be happy to hear economic arguments in favour of Brexit, indeed I’m sure there must be one out there? Sadly it’s drowned out by nationalism and xenophobia.

Well, quite apart from increased trade with the rest of the world, we will be free to bring in cheaper goods that haven't been the subject of EU tariffs designed to protect their own markets. That will also help the less well off in society. I bet that wasn't included in any economic forecasts!

Originally Posted by jfman

If the glorious future was all sugar and candy surely the Government and Bank of England would be first to crow about it?

What part of they are Remain biased and driven do you not get?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't think they assumed a 100% reduction in immigration but that emigration would exceed immigration. This would cause a '100%' reduction in net migration but not a 100% reduction in immigration.

Please read the BBC article I linked. At the bottom of the graph, the assumption is stated.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Please read the BBC article I linked. At the bottom of the graph, the assumption is stated.

Yeah that backs up what I said. 100% reduction in migration not immigration

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

At a cost of £150bn?

You may be fine but for many of our poorest communities paying that for a racially pure England isn’t going to cut it.

Your calculation of 90.7% is flawed. Economic growth forecasts use the current value of 100% as a baseline. So you’d be claiming that it’d be 9% growth vs 10% growth, which isn’t the reality.

Politics is why a Conservative Party who delivered a referendum, effectively delivered Brexit, would grow about a glorious future. The good reason they don’t is that there isn’t one.

<SNIP>

It's not a big calculation. 100% - 9.3% is 90.7%.


---------- Post added at 19:07 ---------- Previous post was at 19:06 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Yeah that backs up what I said. 100% reduction in migration not immigration

Maybe. Bad that it should be ambiguous, though.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

Yet nobody can make a compelling argument against him, Hammond or anyone else offering economic analysis of the situation. No fact based rebuttals, just emotion driven lines about sovereignty.

If Brexit happens (which I doubt) and it works it’ll be by pure chance. Not because of the efforts of anyone in the Leave campaign, anyone in the negotiations or anyone in government making preparations.

I have no love for the European Union, again attributing irrational emotions to a situation that doesn’t require it.

The recently released scenarios from both the BoE and Treasury are both "worst case scenarios" and use the assumption the the UK get no FTA deal from anyone else in the world along with other "worst case" assumptions.

That is your fact based rebuttal and totally emotionless.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, quite apart from increased trade with the rest of the world, we will be free to bring in cheaper goods that haven't been the subject of EU tariffs designed to protect their own markets. That will also help the less well off in society. I bet that wasn't included in any economic forecasts!

Of which it’s all entirely speculative. We’ve no evidence that any of this will actually happen or we will be better off for it.

---------- Post added at 19:15 ---------- Previous post was at 19:13 ----------

Originally Posted by pip08456

The recently released scenarios from both the BoE and Treasury are both "worst case scenarios" and use the assumption the the UK get no FTA deal from anyone else in the world along with other "worst case" assumptions.

That is your fact based rebuttal and totally emotionless.

Indeed those are things the BoE publicise, it’s not a secret.

Nobody has alternative, positive forecasts though. Just the glorious unquantifiable future that led to Brexiteers resigning from cabinet, it was so good.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Of which it’s all entirely speculative. We’ve no evidence that any of this will actually happen or we will be better off for it.

No more speculative than those dodgy forecasts we keep hearing from EU lovers.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

Of which it’s all entirely speculative. We’ve no evidence that any of this will actually happen or we will be better off for it.

---------- Post added at 19:15 ---------- Previous post was at 19:13 ----------



Indeed those are things the BoE publicise, it’s not a secret.

Nobody has alternative, positive forecasts though. Just the glorious unquantifiable future that led to Brexiteers resigning from cabinet, it was so good.

Just as the assumption it won't is entirely speculative and is not evidence based.

I'm sure if the BoE was asked to produce a "best case" scenario they could produce one.