Brexit discussion

Originally Posted by Carth

I find this bit interesting "leaving the EU would result in a 2%-8% reduction in GDP"

It seems strange they couldn't narrow it down any better than 2% - 8%, which is a rather large margin considering less than 1% was the other 'option'

The band is dependent on what model we go for: EEA, Trade agreement, WTO.

Originally Posted by Mr K

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a8201286.html

We really need to wake up to what Brexit will mean in practice, the rest of the World owes us nothing.

Wrong.

Only tell half a misleading story, as usual, they also warned Brussels too, warning them the UK and EU is benefiting, not just the UK but also the EU and enhances the global economy as a whole.

[papa smurf]

The activists who are still fighting Brexit

Theresa May is facing calls to spell out what she wants from the next round of Brexit negotiations.

But these four people believe remaining in the EU is still the best option, and have dedicated their lives to stopping Brexit

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-4290...ighting-brexit

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Well, that says it all, doesn't it? Less than 1%. That's all these 'independent civil servants' were able to bring themselves to admit!

The rest of the world is rather bigger than the EU, and 'less than 1%' is an embarrassing understatement that will come back to haunt them.

It would be great if instead of criticising and moaning about our hard-working civil servants you could instead more positively share your alternative calculations and your expertise in international trade with us all.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It would be great if instead of criticising and moaning about our hard-working civil servants you could instead more positively share your alternative calculations and your expertise in international trade with us all.

Nobody knows because Brexit has NOT happened and stop telling other members to stop being critical to Civil servants, if they want to be critical of them, they can be, they don't need your permission or approval. At the end of the day, they get paid to do a job, nobody owes these folks any such gratitude.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mick

Nobody knows because Brexit has NOT happened and stop telling other members to stop being critical to Civil servants, if they want to be critical of them, they can be, they don't need your permission or approval. At the end of the day, they get paid to do a job, nobody owes these folks any such gratitude.

I've not said that they need my permission or approval. Conversely, I don't need your permission to stick up for this great country and its civil servants.
If you and others want to criticise our hardworking civil servants because what they produce doesn't fit what Farage, Rees-Mogg preached etc it's your choice.. but constant sniping at servants of the Crown is not positive for democracy as the best people will leave. It's demotivating and you wouldn't like to be in their shoes.
In the context of Brexit it would be fantastic to hear some positive well-argued reasons as to why our civil servants are wrong. I guess I'm saying let's move on from a "I'm wrong, you're right" type of thing to something better argued. If there's a conspiracy theory behind it or well-calculated data, let's hear them.

[1andrew1]

Hmm. Is this what "taking back control" looks like!

Northern Ireland will stay in single market after Brexit, EU says UK negotiators have been warned that the EU draft withdrawal agreement will stipulate that Northern Ireland will, in effect, remain in the customs union and single market after Brexit to avoid a hard border.
The uncompromising legal language of the draft agreement is likely to provoke a major row, something all parties to the negotiations have been trying to avoid.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...brexit-eu-says

[Carth]

oh, more analysts announcing impending doom . . . http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...-hit-uk-trade/

some snippets:

Over 2017 as a whole exports rose by £62.5bn, outpacing the £55.5bn rise in imports and so reduced the deficit to £33.7bn.

Despite the drag from trade in December the economy still accelerated overall in the final quarter of the year to grow by 0.5pc, even with these specific headwinds.

“Excluding oil and erratic items, growth in export volumes exceeded growth in imports in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the underlying picture for net trade is much better than these figures suggest,” said Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics.

The National Institute for Economic and Social Affairs estimates that UK GDP grew by 0.5pc in the three months to January, with both the manufacturing and services sectors contributing to the expansion.

"We are forecasting GDP growth of close to 2pc this year assuming a soft Brexit scenario," said Niesr's Amit Kara.

"At this speed the economy could start to overheat unless the Bank of England withdraws some of the stimulus that it has injected by raising the policy rate."

Mr Kara anticipates an interest rate rise in May, and another hike every six months until the base rate reaches 2pc.

Doesn't sound like a doomsday scenario to me, but it is short term . . . and we haven't left yet (added for Andrew)

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It would be great if instead of criticising and moaning about our hard-working civil servants you could instead more positively share your alternative calculations and your expertise in international trade with us all.

I was not criticising, I was making the point that they are not neutral, as you like to think they are. Civil servants tend to be left of centre in their politics too, so being negative comes naturally to them!

Once again, I point out that the forecasts about how we would fare after a Brexit vote have been way out, but your deference to ‘experts’ and ‘independent civil servants’ is clouding your judgement.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I was not criticising, I was making the point that they are not neutral, as you like to think they are. Civil servants tend to be left of centre in their politics too, so being negative comes naturally to them!

Once again, I point out that the forecasts about how we would fare after a Brexit vote have been way out, but your deference to ‘experts’ and ‘independent civil servants’ is clouding your judgement.

Every civil servant I've met has been pro-Brexit. Yes, they hated Farage but they saw Brexit as creating more jobs for British civil servants. If anything, their motivations would be to encourage Brexit, not discourage it!
The forecasts we're seeing now aren't Project Fear. They've been scrutinised millions of times over by a Brexit-focused Government. We're also not seeing contradictory forecasts from other organisations. All are saying that Brexit means a reduction in growth and that's what we're seeing now as the Eurozone outpaces us. Maybe you'd Prefer Bill at No. 35 to do your cataract operation on his day off from Tesco. I'd prefer to trust experts if I can understand their logic.
Optimism on its own doesn't change the facts of geography and economics. Simply saying that because Project Fear has not come to pass, all economists' predictions will always be wrong is flawed.That clearly isn't the case as they would all be out of jobs.

[richard s]

Can't wait for the toryexit...

Originally Posted by richard s

Can't wait for the toryexit...

Never in a million years will the racist Labour Party be in government, as it currently stands, as a severely Anti-Semitic, Momentum-hard-left led party, that offers discounted tickets to rallies, based on ethnicity. But this thread is not about who will be in government, threadexit .... >>>

[1andrew1]

Plenty of talk about the recent EU negotiations.

Less emphasised was the fact that a long-scheduled meeting between EU and UK negotiators on Friday, to discuss the post-transition future relationship, had been cancelled following a “diary clash” on the British side. Of course, that's a polite term to cover the fact the UK side still haven't agreed amongst themselves what future relationship they want with the EU.

[Kursk]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Plenty of talk about the recent EU negotiations.

Less emphasised was the fact that a long-scheduled meeting between EU and UK negotiators on Friday, to discuss the post-transition future relationship, had been cancelled following a “diary clash” on the British side. Of course, that's a polite term to cover the fact the UK side still haven't agreed amongst themselves what future relationship they want with the EU.

The EU are starting to get the jitters. Bullying the UK will not work. Even Sir Foghorn Clegghorn is singing a different tune.

Our negotiation tactics are doing fine. We'll tell the EU what we want when we're ready.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Kursk

The EU are starting to get the jitters. Bullying the UK will not work. Even Sir Foghorn Clegghorn is singing a different tune.

Our negotiation tactics are doing fine. We'll tell the EU what we want when we're ready.

That's a good point - what would be the impact of a 'no deal' to the EU? I would be interested to find out what the government intends in terms of import tariffs and regulation at the most favoured nation (i.e. no deal) level.

At present of course, we work under the EU tariff schedule where MFN tariffs range from very low up to nearly 50% for dairy products for example. Should we look at reproducing what we have now post leaving or change emphasis? The current schedule is highly protectionist over agricultural products and commercial automotive industries. What would people on her like to see?

If we firm up what our import tariffs would be, then we would have a baseline for negotiation.

One other point - could we and should we continue the 'everything but arms' program where we do not charge import tariffs on the 47 poorest countries? I would suggest yes but I would be interested in other peoples opinions.